Monday's Lay Under 1.5 Goals:

Club Leon v UNAM Pumas. 3.95
H Beer Sheva v Maccabi Tel Aviv. 4.30
Lazio v Torino. 3.70

Overs are back in profit for March:

56a396ac-403b-4b6d-a6eb-dfbba16b59d1-image.png

FHG striker bit out of my comfort zone, but need to do it

@Nikki-HALSALL said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Alex-Rule I have used it 5 times today for FHG - odds at kick off ave 1.31, went for in at 1.51 using Match Me and Keep in lay, all matched and won

It will match in a short range for these I put 1.51, if the market was moving fast it will match between 1.46 & 1.51 so I make sure the lower number is the very least I would take

I wondered if they would charge a higher commission but it was the same

Edit - Forgot to say its back bets only and it does say only on mobile but working on my Chromebook

might have to give that a go! yeah havn't seen it on site this morning

Friday 28/03/25 (Day 38)

Potential selections today come from the following:-

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon v Hapoel Nof HaGalil (1pm) - this was a LTD and SHG goal trade, ended 1-1 after being 0-0 @ HT so the latter won but the former lost, although it could’ve been traded for a small profit which is something I’m very much looking to do going forward. Volume and liquidity was very poor though so may be a league I’ll be leaving alone in future.

Aalborg v Viborg (6pm) - over 2.5, home lay, lay under under 1.5 and SHG trades all popped up for this one. I obviously didn’t get involved in them all but the home lay and over 2.5 both proved profitable as it ended 0-4.

Red Star v Rodez (7pm) - lay the draw in the first-half and SHG trades came up for this game and although they were both losers (1-1 @ HT and no SHG), there was plenty of opportunity to trade for a good profit in the first half.

MVV Maastricht v Emmen (7pm) - no bet.

Eindhoven v Helmond (7pm) - this came up as a LTD trade and ended 2-2 so a loser if left to run but could easily have taken profit in the second half .

Amstettan v Rapid Wien II (5pm) - no bet.

Cerezo Osaka v Urawa Reds (10am) - lay home trade which came in thanks to a late second half equaliser. 1-1.

Barry v Newtown (7:45pm) - lay the first half draw and BTTS were both successful bets/trades in this game. 2-1.

@Everyone I have created a form for you guys to fill in to make this a real team activity, basically you get XP points and levels based on what information you give us and what tasks you do.

It's all very straight forward and is meant to make this a lot more fun and more as a team, there will be loads of you who are on the same strategy so it will help all of you out.

You can fill in the form here https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfeZaJFLqVDLdrd6zN79e21POuQGyR-QJYucuTY8tyLc1l_jQ/viewform?usp=header

I will get this emailed out to you regular as well.

there are prizes for the winners each month 😄

Bear with me as I didnt use @Adam for any of this so there might be a few glitches with it which then he will have to sort.

I want feedback as well, I want this to be something you use.

@Patrik-Mellqvist check the amount of top flight league games taking place this week compared to a "normal" week - it'll all be back to normal at the end of the month.

@ellis-slater here is a template you can use to track it:

Here is the tracking sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hagmTEIVEKKxLKFkJ3y-Ap7O7DVPya7irK7HyAOCorI/edit?usp=drive_link

Make sure you click FILE > MAKE A COPY to have your own version.

@Luke-Edward-Walker you could look at high draw at HT % and then low draw at FT %

@james-everard that is fantastic! Well done mate

@Luke-Edward-Walker happens mate! You'll see absolutely everything in this game! As long as you were following a set strategy and stuck to your rules, then there's no reason to shy away from doing it again; it's all about finding something and sticking with it over a long period of time - otherwise you'll never know whether or not it works. Keep at it!

February was a shocking month with all the profits from previous months wiped out. I think for next season flat staking would be the way to go, rather than 2% of the bank each month.

However, that was my challenge, so staking back to 2%

e1237f52-48c5-4840-b325-cace101a5542-image.png

Serie A and Liga Portugal both still in profit

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But the Prem has fallen right off

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Will see what March brings!

ok thanks martin

Great post, this is something I always keep an eye on, brings home the benefits of longer term testing. If you rely on goals to win in your strategy and you know you're profitable when goals are at usual levels, then just hang in there, because once goals hit 3+ a game then you'll likely benefit hugely.

Here is the strategy download from the Lay The Home Team youtube video this week:

Lay Home Team Strategy.txt

You can upload this to your own software by copying the test from the file and pasting it here, then click 'import':
Screenshot (84).png

Give it a name and click 'save' to save it.

Or if you would like me to add it for you, just let me know in the comments below.

@Tony-Hastie said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:

I chucked the back home and back away strategies into the football software to see what they brought up...got this a few times now. Back the draw?😁Screenshot 2025-01-14 132032.png

to be fair you would have made a profit backing both as the winner was 3.0+ odds 😄

@Peter-Adams there aren't any SHG specific stats in the ratings, they tend to cover 90mins

@james-everard Well there have been 5 posts today already, so things are hotting up 🙂 but seriously it would be great to see what people are up to, not to copy them but to learn a few tricks of the trade (pun intended :))

This conclusion is based on my experience and testing.
You might get results other than mine and are free to speak up.

First out ...
SHG "any score line" at 1.4 between 60/64 min mark.
Run several weekends with Fairbot and it did not perform as expected.

Update with the next test ...
Richards SHG at 1.2 Set & Forget

Cheers