@Mark-Burrows I also trade LTD and am profitable with it although my stakes are not as high as yours, i have noticed that the major European leagues are far more reliable than some of the smaller leagues... Premier League has been great so far this season... i hope to be on £10 stakes by end of the season if all goes to plan.

@Patrik-Mellqvist An excellent read.

@Jaysen-John thanks for that update. When you say following, which specific strategy is it you are following? Then I can give some advice on it.

@Ryan said in Just sharing ...:

@Patrik-Mellqvist Wow thats really interesting can you write off losses as well to reduce the tax?

All sets up - don't work - but i have one that i will exectute.
See private message, Cheers

@Clifford-Truss have a look at inplay alerts, only 5 quid per month, you can set up your strategy in there and it will send you telegram alert when your selected games qualify.

It’s a good product to use alongside any in play BTC strategies.

I learn from my own wisdom LOL

I will use the 12-minute mark entering for trade as Each Day 10
But not Scalp/Trade 5/6 min mark for 10% return.

I will test the whole 10 min or when reaching the goal of 20% return.
If possible, I will simulate this today with odds 3,5 to 4,8.
With back-dripping to reduce overall loss ratio, the excellent pendulum effect is achieved.

What is the point - well, this is the point.
Most goals peak statistically at and after the 15-minute mark.
And also read that peaks of goals around the 30 to 45 min mark.
Hey, why 0-0 price drop dramatically - market behaviour.

So instead of 10 to 20 min mark with odds 3 to 4 and back-dripping for 10% i will try do the exact same with the following difference where market and traders overall think differently.

To achieve 20% return with the same methodology.
What is the mechanism that triggers this higher return.
Markets' expectation at 12 min mark to 22 min mark - goal wise -
Markets odds - expectation wise - 3,5 to 4.8 to lay.

That is the theoretical framework for stronger time-decay and drifting price movement against the market's expectation.
The in-play indicators are a key factor here to get a tendency towards matchreading for the present attack mode, tempomode or active/slow or low/high likelihood for goal attempts.

With this saying also mention that one loss with original gave higher loss ration then 1 in 5 with one past trade with this parameters.
But that situation was from the original setup - so potential 20% return and back-dripping I might get around 1 in 4 or less.
That the simulation and real-life trading will tell.

But with a higher liquidity game, I will stick to my original plan.
In lower liquidity games, I will test this out with 10£ trades.
So explore the possibility and see how well my educated guess or framework comes true with real-time stats from live trading.

Cheers

@Martin said in Netflix/Amazon/Gaming and Book Recommendations:

@Richard-Latimer

A Thousand Blows on Disney+ is best thing they have put out on the service IMO, Stephen Graham and creator of Peaky Blinders.

Stephen Graham is brilliant in almost anything. Adolescence is on my list to watch soon.

Well, today I will start scalping instead of paper trading.

Raw Rules:

Odds for Over 1.5 goals market 1.15 or less.
Most games will have a second half current score line at 6+

Will pick one scalp each day, if available, between time-slots 20:00 to 21:00, where I pick the available game on the list.

If one selected game don't qualified with 6+ odds with current goal market I move to the next game availbal on the list.
If no game is available, no scalping day.

If a winning scalp, I will move into virtual mode using the selection process until a loss occurs and then activate real mode and start entering the next cycle to catch 1 frequency.

This is optional rule, you wait for a fictive win/scalp then enter with real money once, then enter virtual mode until a loss and then repeat the process.
This has to do with how to tackle the Black Swan or when Lady Luck or Variance show its ugly face.
(( I will illustrate both modes with real money))

Today's game 2025-03-08 Spain La Liga
Barcelona vs. Osasuna
Time: 21:00
(( I will apply rule five, so today's game is virtual ))

Summary of this topic:
After showing two real examples with the rules above.
You are free to test and explore on your own.

I know what I intended to do.
2000£ a month.
One scalp each day.
Only picking the market with a turnaround of 100,000£ at the match odds market.
Where the risk is 10,000£ for one Massianello Session.
And the profit 2000£

Why not win 10 to 20 sessions and bust once or less and reach premium charge within one year.
Instead of using multiple trading methods with more work and hours to put in selections each morning, to Fair Bot.

Maybe I test with 5000£ first to get 1000£ if the market's liquidity doesn't cut it ...

All the things I talk about is as close you get to building an algorhtim or marsh using cycles pendulum effect with median values and frequencies.
This is my world to tackle scalping and to reach higher returns with out be a victim of a violated process - thanks to Massianello Formula - and estimated rules and theory ...

@Patrik-Mellqvist yes I agree as I wrote it, it is all about bankroll protection and it is a great way to keep yourself in the game even if you picked a bad strategy to run.

I think quarterly is a good time to do it but you could do it monthly it's really down to what suits the trader.

I notice - that even pros have some degree of gap of knowledge 🙂

I started building a long-term automated portfolio that will run on weekends.
Will validate during a period, then when running full stake, I estimate around 500£ a month - as passive or hybrid - as it does require some morning routine to put in all selections to Fair'Bot - also take the spreadsheets in the late evening of the day's results.

I skip the middle days with low action and concentrate on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

Now I will mention some things about chaos and random bits that also apply to sports betting selections.
Winners and losers come in chunks and we can not predict in which order they come.

This means that you can pick only one day's results and gather 1000 placed bets total.
Using one criterion and parameter for the specific game.
Then those 1000 placed bets ( Results ) in the whole - will be the same as you collected 1000 placed bets every day continuously.

The variance and the chunks of winning and losing bets will average and give a very similar overall performance - if not the same -

Therefore I can concentrate on my automation on weekends.
And make my trading during working days and weekends as I feel like.

So my solution is the solution that suits me.
Just wanted to give a basic lesson about randomness and chaos theory.

Cheers Patrik

@Ryan said in Food/Diet and training hobbies:

@Akiva-Anderson I have thought about Lion's Mane before, Adam told me he used it and it worked.

Will have to get some, where you get yours? Seems to be so many out there tough to know whats a good one or not.

I get most of my stuff of that sort from mindnutrition.com or lifeessentials.co.uk.

@Patrik-Mellqvist Thank you, that is a good bit of reading for me later on, written by people with a lot of experience.

@Richard-Duff if that happens it's worth getting in touch with CS but I'd only do that as a last resort. Might be my paranoia but I never like alerting them to things, they sometimes seem to not know their arse from their elbow at the best of times!

Morning Simon,
I have been looking into Chat GPT for the very same thing over last month, as completing my spreadsheets is the most time consuming aspect of my trading. I was uploading a spreadsheet to GPT of around 10 matches at a time requesting HT,FT and goal times for the respective matches.
However even using chat 4o, when I cross referenced the results, I found it to be inaccurate around 50% of time with either incorrect scores and /or goal times. I even directed it to specific websites and it still retrieved incorrect information.
For me I lost confidence in chat to provide me with accurate info, so have gone back to the manual updates of my spreadsheet.
Maybe I wasn't using the correct prompts, but to get all 84 matches correct is a game changer..!!

How happy we were in that first pic lol

@Andrew-Hopkins https://new.betfairtradingcommunity.com/ratings/?wdt_column_filter[1]=02/07/2024|05/07/2024#
try this link

Thank you very much guys, solved! I'll add the new filter variable, then go through H2H to see if the correct team matches the required criteria. Now, I must find a new reason, why not to bet with this filter.(to improve it)

@Martin said in Advance Question About The Long Term Expectation:

@Patrik-Mellqvist yes 100% and be prepared that a strategy that does well can start to decline.

Some strategies have more variance than others too.

@Martin then we have faith in the simulation and statistical playing models before executing those strategies and if a sudden swing we can lay back with the knowledge that our work shows otherwise and continue knowing that we have positive expectations.

And with our experience doing homework we also know sudden drops in values and know how they can occur so that should not be a surprise when it happens and also have some degree of understanding of what kind of swings to expect based upon that knowledge.

Here is a small example with summer leagues, I know the majority will perform well and some summers will be less effective but the overall strike ratio will be 83,77%

2022/2023 94,44%
2021/2022 85,71%
2020/2021 71,43%
2019/2020 75%
2018/2019 93,33%
2017/2018 88,24%
2016/20217 78,26%

83,77% och tie odds 1,194

So with that estimated 1200 placed bets and another 2380 placed bets for regular season we can calculate the EDGE and expectation for several years or the long-term EDGE with 3500 placed trades.

That is what I will do before using my trading strategy and Set & Forget

Cheers

Thanks for clarifying that, i understand it now.