@Martin said in Advance Question About The Long Term Expectation:
@Patrik-Mellqvist yes 100% and be prepared that a strategy that does well can start to decline.
Some strategies have more variance than others too.
@Martin then we have faith in the simulation and statistical playing models before executing those strategies and if a sudden swing we can lay back with the knowledge that our work shows otherwise and continue knowing that we have positive expectations.
And with our experience doing homework we also know sudden drops in values and know how they can occur so that should not be a surprise when it happens and also have some degree of understanding of what kind of swings to expect based upon that knowledge.
Here is a small example with summer leagues, I know the majority will perform well and some summers will be less effective but the overall strike ratio will be 83,77%
2022/2023 94,44%
2021/2022 85,71%
2020/2021 71,43%
2019/2020 75%
2018/2019 93,33%
2017/2018 88,24%
2016/20217 78,26%
83,77% och tie odds 1,194
So with that estimated 1200 placed bets and another 2380 placed bets for regular season we can calculate the EDGE and expectation for several years or the long-term EDGE with 3500 placed trades.
That is what I will do before using my trading strategy and Set & Forget
Cheers