New Trade?...
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Okay, so have been having thoughts for some time on trading games with FHG & SHG probability and following on from discussions in the Football Trading Thread yesterday have come up with the following trade.
Please forgive me if this is already covered elsewhere on the site, can't say I recall seeing it anywhere.
Ability Level - Beginner/Intermediate or Intermediate
The FH Trade
So we're looking for games with good FHG probabilities and will "Back O0.5 FHG @ 1.53/1.51 (depending on your commission charge for 1pt.
If FHG comes in you're already 0.5pts up and if you wish you can leave it there... However these games are selected with strong SHG probability so we should be okay to carry on... But trade where you are comfortable.
Max red from FH = 1pt
If you didn't get matched and missed out on FHG you can either move on or carry on trading SH as below.
The SH Trade
If the game is only 1-0/0-1 you can then lay/back O2.5 goals for 0.5pts liability (win from FHG) and then either remove red after 1 more goal or let it run for potential 1pt profit... If no 2nd goal by time LCS reaches evens, Lay Current Score for 0.5pts (Max SH red = 0.5pts if 0.5pts from FHG)... 1 more goal guarantees 0.5pts profit but 2 more goals will give 1.5pts profit.
If the game is 1-1 or 2-0/0-2 @ HT then you can LTD and or back/lay O3.5 goals/LCS @ evens or trade/leave as you wish... No more than 0.5 red after SH.
If there are 3 FHG's then maybe leave the trade and move on or LCS @ evens... Would personally recommend the former.
Will edit any mistakes found as when have more time... Maybe have some fun with small stakes and see what you think or just follow thread to see results below.
I believe the risk/reward looks okay but will publish results below for anyone to follow.
All games will get posted in bold below...
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Two Off 2 Games Today
Belgium - Jupiler League 31/01/2020 19:30 Kortrijk v St. Liege
Will queue Back o0.5 FHG @ 1.51/1.53 for 1pt - Loss 1pt
Will Lay u1.5 goals for 1pt - Winner 1pt
Scratch Trade
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One Off 2 Games Today
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie 31/01/2020 19:00 Den Bosch v Jong AZ
Will queue Back o0.5 FHG @ 1.51/1.53 for 1pt - Winner +0.5ptsUnfortunately a red card so I will not be trading this game any further
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Todays Game
Italy - Serie A - 26/01/2020 17:00 AS Roma v Lazio
:oncoming_fist: Have queued Back o0.5 FHG @ 1.51/1.53 for 1pt - Winner
Will queue Back o2.5 goals @ HT if still 1-0 - Okay 0.5pts locked in and onto the next game :thumbs_up:
Match Profit/Loss +0.5pts
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@alan-steward said in New Trade?...:
Saturdays Game
Germany - Bundesliga - 25/01/2020 14:30 Eintracht Frankfurt v RB Leipzig
Will queue Back o0.5 FHG @ 1.51/1.53 for 1pt
Then assess any SH moves @ HT
Match Profit/Loss - Scratch
Looks like Eintracht have parked the buss, fingers crossed.
Okay, time to move on if you dont wish to risk 2pts, personally have queued Lay u1.5 goals @ 2.16 for 1pt... best of luck!
If you're following you can cash out and move on or let it run... Will let mine run.
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First of all if you've been following apologies for slow responses but I've had a mare with my laptop today and feel it may be time for a new one.
Quick overview of my decisions during this trade;
First of all I'm very surprised that not only did it remain 0-0 @ HT but Leipzig failed to score... Clearly Eintracht did their homework or got very very lucky.
So after HT being 0-0 I really didn't see this game staying that way and still strongly fancied a Leipzig win... But decided to Lay u1.5 goals @ HT and take whatever price was offered before SH started, wise move with a goal on 47 mins.
However looking back maybe I should have cashed out on that goal as the green was around 0.6425pts but I decided to stay in as Leipzig were trailing.
Obviously I had my doubts the longer it remained 1-0, fortunately the 2nd goal arrived and I scratched the trade (thanks to what was probably the last kick of the game).
This game came from my 4 goal filter and not many ranked as highly as this game end with 1 goal. I have stats measured over 3 months and will see if I can attach them to this thread so you can see how the filter performs.
So we live to trade another day... See you soon!
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Saturdays Game
Germany - Bundesliga - 25/01/2020 14:30 Eintracht Frankfurt v RB Leipzig
Will queue Back o0.5 FHG @ 1.51/1.53 for 1pt
Then assess any SH moves @ HT
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@martin-futter said in New Trade?...:
@alan-steward enjoy the fine city!
It was a good day in the fine city
Catch up soon
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1-1 @ Zwolle so will leave it there but a nice bit of green.
Am in Norwich this weekend and will only be able to trade in stealth mode so will pick up again first game as of Monday night
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@shaun-halse said in New Trade?...:
@alan-steward I'm with you on this one Alan. Put my order in.
LOL
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@alan-steward said in New Trade?...:
Today's Game;
Netherlands Eredivisie 17/01/2020 19:00 Zwolle v Utrecht
Have queued O0.5 FHG @ 1.51 for 1pt - Winner 0.5pts profitIf still 1-0 @ HT will queue O2.5 goals
Match Profit/Loss +0.5pts
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Today's Game;
Netherlands Eredivisie 17/01/2020 19:00 Zwolle v Utrecht
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Next Game
England Premier League 12/01/2020 16:30 Aston Villa Manchester City
If anybody is following for this trade I've queued Back 00.5 FHG but odds are looking a bit low, am out just now but will check stats start of the game...
Back bet queued prob won't get matched until around 25mins will keep eye on stats.
Okay fairly early goal would have got matched in most games but that's elite teams for you... Move onto the next game the Germans will soon be back
No Trade
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@alan-steward said in New Trade?...:
Today's game (The Italian Job)...
Italy Serie A 06/01/20 14:00 Juventus v Gagliari
Am working today but will queue FHG @ 1.51/53 (Depending on commission charge) and evaluate in-play stats at HT & post here asap
Well, all the stats have been quoted on the trading thread and I'm really surprised its ended goaless at HT but I guess that's trading and that's football.
My suggestion is to take it on the chin or look for LCS around the 60/65 mark.
Due to the low odds with O1.5 goals (goals expected) I wont suggest the goals market.
Plenty more profit to follow
Match Profit/Loss -1pts
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Today's game (The Italian Job)...
Italy Serie A 06/01/20 14:00 Juventus v Gagliari
Am working today but will queue FHG @ 1.51/53 (Depending on commission charge) and evaluate in-play stats at HT & post here asap
Loss 1pt
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So with 0.5pts profit locked and potential of 0.794pts with 3rd goal I will not be doing any further trading in this game... Next stop Juve
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@alan-steward said in New Trade?...:
@alan-steward said in New Trade?...:
Today's game...
Spain Laliga 05/01/2020 13:00 Real Sociedad v Villarreal
First Trade - Back O0.5 FHG @ 1.51/1.53 for 1pt (I have queued @ 1.51)... (the FHG could come later in the FH so if you'd rather play safe you could lay U0.5 FHG @ 1.95/1.98 or just use lower stakes)
Matched @ 1.51
:oncoming_fist: 1-0, hopefully no more goals FH & move onto phase 2
Have queued back O2.5 goals @ 2.02 for 0.5pts - Matched @ 2.02 - Fully expect the 3rd goal but will remove red when market settles - Have locked in 0.25pts profit for 3rd goal -
@alan-steward said in New Trade?...:
Today's game...
Spain Laliga 05/01/2020 13:00 Real Sociedad v Villarreal
First Trade - Back O0.5 FHG @ 1.51/1.53 for 1pt (I have queued @ 1.51)... (the FHG could come later in the FH so if you'd rather play safe you could lay U0.5 FHG @ 1.95/1.98 or just use lower stakes)
Matched @ 1.51
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LOL... We're getting there... Think we'll stick with New Trade for now but I do like "Anywhichwayyoucan"
