@graham-neave I see @Adam answered this for you already on another thread 🙂
Horse Racing
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Topics
13.2k
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@Tony-Hastie said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Lay 3rd fav doing well for everyone else this month?
Ive officially abandoned my Lay 3rd fav strategy today. Since you asked this question(27th Aug) Its pretty much not moved. Its shot up to a 30 point gain, nearly hit 40 points then has hovered between 30 and 40 for 3 months. Frankly, I get pissed off when it has a bad day and eats into my L2B profit! So, its done. Slowly find myself heading away from automation and looking to be more in control of my horse racing...
Not to mention I had a mare(no pun intended!) and accidently deleted my original one...along with some others🤣
Horse racing is so frustrating some times. My biggest paydays are still scalping and lay to backs.Neither of which are automated
@Martin said in Question about horse section!:
@Patrik-Mellqvist the horse racing has backtesting yes if that's what you are asking
Thanks.
Exactly.
Can I test for one month to validate and explore?
Can I use a month subscription?
If I get what I am looking for after the testing period.
Then can I get the same 3-year deal as with a soccer subscription?
Cheers Patrik
Hi Adam. I was trying to create a back strategy looking for horses that ran below their handicap last time/handicap has been lowered focusing on higher quality handicap races with decent prize money (theory being you know the horses will be trying). My thinking is that a lot of money in these higher quality races will be placed on the favourite/tipped horses by pundits leaving some of the "outsiders" to provide value. Obviously this approach won't be for everyone as there will be long losing runs but wondered if you had any comments on my first stab? Is there any way of testing how it would have performed if the selections had been backed each way? Thanks!
Sorry for clickbaity title, it's accurate though!
I know a lot of people have their strategies set up in the software to bet within the last 10 minutes before the race. Are you aware of just how much the prices move around during that time? Especially these days with Betfair liquidity massively down on what it was even 5 years ago.
What I find now is that even on a solid handicap race, the prices will range much more, somewhere around 2 or 3 ticks either side of the average traded price. So you could do 6 ticks better on the same selection simply by better timing your entry bet! What difference would that make to your results?
I'm planning on introducing some "value maximisation" settings into the Betting Rules in the software. Ideas so far:
Entering a trade at the top or bottom of the selection's recent traded range Predicting the stopping or reversal of a trend (kind of the same as 1 tbh, probably based on MACD or price envelopes) Restricting bets based on the back/lay ratio (gap between the top back and lay prices) "Big bet" detection (Outsized bets coming into the market cause big moves) Betting based on proximity to natural or dynamic support and resistance points (natural resistance points basically being the tick crossover points on the ladder, e.g. 3.0, where the increment changes from 0.02 to 0.05) Liquidity related measures like fill rate, amount of money available at a price Backtesting profit figures with thresholds built in, for example telling you what your profit would have been if you'd taken 1 tick better or worse pricesSome of these are going to be quite intensive to calculate on the fly so this probably isn't a quick thing, and I have no idea if you could replicate them in BFBM (I think BetAngel's automations could handle them), but I'll leave that to them!
Those of you who do manual trading and think about this stuff, and also use the software, do you have any other suggestions or requests?
@Martin dobs strategy from my youtube video is here to download: Dobs (Sept 2024): rules_export.json
@Michael-Chalk I think this is a good idea. I'll have a think about how to implement it!
@Kevin-Pepper that's a really great way to look at it!
what columns do you want?
Here are the stats highlights from our software today!
Horse Racing - User Guide Here: https://new.betfairtradingcommunity.com/horse-racing-stats/
Terms Glossary:
LTO = Last Time Out
Dobbed = Price reduces 50% In Running, a £10 bet at the off would make £10 profit if price reached, £10 loss if price not reached.
Trobbed = Price reduces 66.67% in running, a £10 bet at the off would make £20 profit if price reached, £10 loss if price not reached.
Beaten Fav = Horse that was a favourite last time out and lost.
Steamed = Horse's price has shortened significantly
Drifted = Horse’s price has got bigger significantly
Class = Similar to divisions in football, so going up in class in theory is stronger competition, down in class weaker horses etc
Haydock 13:25
Furzig
Moved down a class since LTO
Papagei
Moved up a class since LTO
Glasses Up
Moved up a class since LTO
Bangor-On-Dee 13:35
Jumping Susie
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Market mover - Price drifted 33% since last night
Fond Farewell
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 100% since last night
Home Sweet Highway
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Fllana Bay
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 50% since last night
Ascot 13:50
Obelix
Moved down a class since LTO
Double Time
Has won at distance
Crystal Casque
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Shaladar
Has won at distance
Moved up a class since LTO
Power Of Gold
Moved up a class since LTO
Law Supreme
Has won at distance
Alazwar
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Desert Doctor
Has won at distance
Draw bias = 1.5499999523162842
Dakota Power
Moved up a class since LTO
One Step Beyond
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Draw bias = 1.7100000381469727
Little Empire
Has won at distance
Mumayaz
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 33% since last night
Haydock 14:00
Grace Angel
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Market mover - Price drifted 33% since last night
Never Dark
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.7999999523162842
Skallywag Bay
Moved up a class since LTO
Copper Knight
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Arecibo
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 40% since last night
Thunder Star
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
The Coffee Pod
Has won at distance
Kuwait City
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Secret Mistral
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 12)
Beaten Fave LTO
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO
Our Absent Friends
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved up a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.6200000047683716
Zaphea
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Bangor-On-Dee 14:10
Simply Red
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO
Eagle's Realm
Market mover - Price drifted 80% since last night
Presenting Pete
Moved down a class since LTO
Market mover - Price steamed -43% since last night
Kopa Kilana
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Cawthorne Cracker
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Bangor-On-Dee 14:45
Jumping Jupiter
Market mover - Price drifted 50% since last night
Ferrobin
Moved down a class since LTO
Time To Tinker
Market mover - Price steamed -52% since last night
Aviewofthestars
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Ten Ten Twenty
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Fenney Brook
Market mover - Price steamed -38% since last night
Bergentown
Has won over course & distance combo
Into The Sunset
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Market mover - Price steamed -33% since last night
Bangor-On-Dee 15:20
Presentandcounting
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Riskintheground
Moved down a class since LTO
Before Midnight
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Herewegohoney
Moved up a class since LTO
Baron De Midleton
Moved up a class since LTO
Bella Bliss
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Lipa K
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO
Haydock 15:45
Seal Of Solomon
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Billy No Mates
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO
Haarar
Moved down a class since LTO
Gifted Angel
Moved down a class since LTO
Lunar Jet
Market mover - Price drifted 56% since last night
Down Royal 15:50
Mint Man
Moved down a class since LTO
Bangor-On-Dee 15:55
Restandbethankful
Dobbed in 9 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Mix Of Clover
Has won over course & distance combo
Dream Jet
Moved up a class since LTO
Malpas
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Nevendon
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Bix Beiderbecke
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Sword Of Fate
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Neigh Botha
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Beaten Fave LTO
Guillaume
Moved up a class since LTO
Kilbeggan 16:00
Pahlavi
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Florance
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Ascot 16:10
Dark Thirty
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Look Back Smiling
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.5299999713897705
Market mover - Price steamed -33% since last night
Thunder Blue
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Haydock 16:20
Boardman
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO
Persuasion
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO
The Turpinator
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Yorkshire
Market mover - Price steamed -33% since last night
Tropez Power
Dobbed in 9 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Abduction
Moved up a class since LTO
Pumalin Park
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 50% since last night
Tanmawwy
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Thapa Vc
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 40% since last night
Bangor-On-Dee 16:30
Chinx Of Light
Market mover - Price drifted 33% since last night
Bucko's Boy
Has won at course
Watergrange Jack
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price drifted 40% since last night
Isthebaropen
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Hardy Boy
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Halifax
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Butler's Brief
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Finisk River
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Clararose
Moved up a class since LTO
Kilbeggan 16:35
Little Mixup
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Drumgill
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
By Your Side
Moved up a class since LTO
Major Barry
Moved up a class since LTO
Walhaan
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Striking
Moved up a class since LTO
The Dasher Conway
Has won at course
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Presenting Lad
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Influential Lady
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Baltinglass Hill
Moved up a class since LTO
Ascot 16:45
Awaal
Draw bias = 1.7100000381469727
Hafeet Alain
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Has won at distance
Tempus
Has won over course & distance combo
Navagio
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Classic
Beaten Fave LTO
Draw bias = 1.5499999523162842
Haydock 16:55
No Nay Nicki
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Gentle Ellen
Market mover - Price steamed -44% since last night
Oscar's Sister
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 12)
Has won over course & distance combo
Kristal Klear
Moved up a class since LTO
Draw bias = 1.7400000095367432
Bangor-On-Dee 17:05
Motazzen
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Lady Wormsley
Moved down a class since LTO
Ibiza Rocks
Moved down a class since LTO
Kilbeggan 17:10
Augusta George
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Bright Start
Moved up a class since LTO
Ascot 17:20
Love Billy Boy
Moved down a class since LTO
Smart Vision
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Has won at distance
Zainabb
Market mover - Price drifted 47% since last night
Bangor-On-Dee 17:35
Walk The Moon
Moved up a class since LTO
Tropical Talent
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Grifter
Moved up a class since LTO
Market mover - Price steamed -56% since last night
Vertical
Moved down a class since LTO
Kilbeggan 17:40
Another Nightmare
Moved down a class since LTO
Craic Eile
Moved down a class since LTO
Thedancingfarrier
Moved down a class since LTO
Cafe Del Mar
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Down The Park
Moved down a class since LTO
Oh'herewego
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
He Fitz In
Has won at course
Kilmurry Jj
Beaten Fave LTO
Who's Houdini
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Down Royal 18:05
Astar
Market mover - Price steamed -33% since last night
Squire Danagher
Moved down a class since LTO
Zoffanien
Moved down a class since LTO
Belgoprince
Beaten Fave LTO
Barnacullia
Moved down a class since LTO
Happy Jacky
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Moved up a class since LTO
Rain
Market mover - Price drifted 33% since last night
Sceptred Isle
Moved up a class since LTO
Charlie Darling
Moved up a class since LTO
Kilbeggan 18:15
Ceroc
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 12)
El Champo
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO
Inforapenny
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Beaten Fave LTO
Robin Elite
Moved up a class since LTO
Miss Gherkin
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Moved down a class since LTO
Down Royal 18:40
French Company
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 4.25
Arch Enemy
Moved down a class since LTO
Bringsty
Moved down a class since LTO
Bright N Shine
Moved down a class since LTO
Market mover - Price steamed -36% since last night
Explorers Way
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Avatar Jet
Moved down a class since LTO
Wajaaha
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 4.25
Tartaraghan
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Kilbeggan 18:50
Charlie Luciano
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Watch The Weather
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Beaten Fave LTO
Moved up a class since LTO
Everglow
Has won at course
Clifftop
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
Miss Agusta
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Moved up a class since LTO
General Clermont
Beaten Fave LTO
Moved up a class since LTO
Sargent Lightfoot
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Kilashee
Dobbed in 8 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 12)
Has won at course
Moved up a class since LTO
Down Royal 19:10
Beautiful Chaos
Moved down a class since LTO
Sir Allen
Moved down a class since LTO
Draw bias = 2.380000114440918
Enquire Within
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Figurehead
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Wild Shot
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO
Albion Princess
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Bigz Belief
Moved down a class since LTO
Kempton 20:30
Enochdhu
Has won at course
Moved down a class since LTO
Sonnerie Power
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 6 of last 10 runs
Has won over course & distance combo
Roost
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Moved down a class since LTO
Capstan
Dobbed in 7 of last 10 runs
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Likes to lead (Pace rating = 10)
Has won at course
Grigio
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO
Kempton 21:00
Hiatus
Has won over course & distance combo
Soar Above
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO
Another Baar
Trobbed in 5 of last 10 runs
Has won at distance
Moved down a class since LTO
Fierce
Moved up a class since LTO
Beyond Equal
Has won over course & distance combo
Tremblant
Moved down a class since LTO
Big R
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved down a class since LTO
Gherkin
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO
Vitalline
Has won over course & distance combo
Moved up a class since LTO
Thanks,
Martin
Betfair Trading Tutor
@Martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan what you getting done in Turkey?
Teeth, hair transplant, tummy tuck and a face lift 😂
@Adam said in Question About BSP Place Markets:
@Michael-Chalk We get the place prices in a file from Betfair and the event name is still listed as "To Be Placed". BF don't seem to offer this market as a single entity any more on the website.
I think the price is taken from the TBP market with the same number of places as the Each Way market.
Nice and simple 🙄
Betfair don't make life easy for you do they!
@Wayne-Thomas OK thank you Wayne, I will follow with interst ,I noticed 4 possible bets yesterday and 4 winners.
We only have the full price history for the win market currently but will be adding other markets in future.
It's possible to add the place BSP as a column in the trades results, but it's not currently possible to filter on the place / each way odds.
@James-Mitchell said in DOB% Quesiton - 13/05 (1.47 Catterick):
Is there a benchmark figure or is literally any amount matched at the lowest point in play for said runner?
It's the lowest price with at least £1 matched. We're looking at ways of providing some liquidity settings so you can change the minimum amount matched for things like this 👍