Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
-
@Everyone This thread is for shared members strategies which can be downloaded. These will also help you create your own strategies and see what people are having success with.
THESE ARE NOT TIPS!
If you have a support question here is the form to use: https://form.asana.com/?k=V4sICWddOgH3CMQ96g0XSA&d=1120854233877885
If you want to add to the list just comment and share the .json file (to download the file from the forum: right click - save link as - save)
Here is a video guide on how to share and upload strategies:
These are the strategies I am currently forward testing.
Downloads
Lay 3rd Fav - rules_export (3).json
BFBM Bot - Lay 3rd Fav.gzIrish Dobs - rules_export (2).json
BFBM Bot - Irish Dobs 1.0.gzOnes to avoid but still testing:
Back to lay dobs - rules_export (6).json
BFBM Bot - Back to lay dobs.gzLay Beaten Fav - rules_export (7).json
BFBM Bot - Lay BF.gzForward testing results £1 stakes (29th July-10th August)
FAQ:
Q. Should I still test these before putting money on?
A. Yes, I will always advise forward testing any strategy for 1-3 months at least. This also helps you see the best approach for the strategy, for free!Q. Is there a results sheet?
A. Yes here:Q. How do I deal with multiple selections in one race?
A. This will depend on the strategy, some strategies like lay the field rely on multiple qualifiers to make profit. For my (@martin's) shared strategies this is what I do - In general if two selections end up qualifying oddswise then I don't trade them, reason being that when I ran the results and removed duplicate horses in the same race the results improved. This seems especially true when laying horses. However, if there are two plus selections but only one qualifies in odds then I do trade it.Q: How do I know when to enter?
A: The strategy settings on the strategy builder will have the rules and entry within them, for you to view.Q: I am worried about backfitting, how do I combat this?
A. A couple of easy ways to do this, firstly, see if the strategy was profitable before you edited filters to improve it, was the base strategy profitable? If so you are probably onto a winner regardless. Secondly, forward test the strategy after creation, if the same winning trend continues then your strategy is clearly working and backfitting is not an issue.Q: Are you going to add more data, go further back in time?
A: Yes, this will be an ongoing process we are using the funds from sales of the software to buy more data over time. The data will naturally get longer in time anyway as days go by, we don't ever lose data that we already have from the past. -
@Martin-Webb excellent!
-
@Martin-Webb if possible could you show a screenshot (if it doesn't give any personal details away)
-
When attempting to import example strategies from BTC into BFBot i am being asked for a password in BFBot ?
It allowed me to import the Lay the 3rd fave without any issues, but asks for a password for any others. -
@Brigitta-Nagy said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
hi guys, I try to follow Martin's strategy, (back 5f odds7,8-10), but its not showing qualifiers to me. says: You only retrieved the results for this strategy! Why, what's that, please? thanks m_back_5f.json
Check this setting:
-
@Martin said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@Brigitta-Nagy do you mean upcoming qualifiers? There are probably no 5 furlong races that qualify today.
yes, i mean upcoming qualifiers.
i thought the same, it doesn't show it because there is no 5 furlong races that qualify today, but
It didn't show any upcoming qualifiers since I watching it, more than a week, but there are some results on individual trades page. -
@Brigitta-Nagy do you mean upcoming qualifiers? There are probably no 5 furlong races that qualify today.
-
hi guys, I try to follow Martin's strategy, (back 5f odds7,8-10), but its not showing qualifiers to me. says: You only retrieved the results for this strategy! Why, what's that, please? thanks m_back_5f.json
-
@Danny-Bridges nice work mate!
-
@Danny-Bridges is that profit or -pts? Looks like profit but just checking!
-
Sorry got hooked up with the day job hence my delay in reply!
@Dan-MacKinnon Thanks Dan, yeah the BSP Favourite part is a variable that cant be pre-determined unfortunately, I had the same issue when finding some half decent strategy's that one of the variables required you to be on the button right before the off to ensure the correct selection is staked. Wouldn't it be ideal if you could have the option of backing the "BSP Favourite" as an option
@Dan-MacKinnon @Martin @Adam @John-Folan - This is the closest I have got to a solid Set & Forget strategy that doesn't have too many peaks and troughs. Appreciate any feedback on how you think it stacks up. @Adam this might give you some insight why I was so hooked on how quickly the non runners update since this is the main variable of maximum of 9 runners. The only other variable can be if a horse has a BSP below 2.0 but tbh the amount of selections below this price is slim and even when you consider them as part of the back testing they have very little impact.
I do often find myself sometimes with multiple qualifiers in the same race and can even be upto 4 at times which can be quite hard to grasp at times but found it's better over the long term to keep those selections in as it's one less variable to look at when checking the daily qualifiers.
From my forward testing which started in Jan I have recorded results on my excel as the below to BSP:
Jan - 4.6 pts profit
Feb - 18.3 pts profit
Max drawdown from starting bank has been around 11pts down from a 100pt bank
Longest losing runs come in at 14 & 13 with a few 9-10 streaks
biggest winning run is 2All in all so far it's the best "set & forget" strategy I have stumbled across so far but appreciate some of those losing runs aren't for everybody.
-
@John-Folan said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@Dan-MacKinnon said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@Danny-Bridges I had a mess about with BSP and got this rules_export (6).json
You can forward test it, but seems to follow your approach. The only issue is how do you know who the favourite is depending on when you place the bets?
Ideally need a horse metric that does well no matter the metric or the BSP price/ranking. I looked at Jockey allowances earlier. It did well but only thanks to a couple of 1000 BSP wins
Isn't that the dream though? 1000 BSP win.
That would be the best day of trading if that ever happened to me. Obviously I'll need to start trading BSP, but you live in hope that one day BF might just balls up the pricing and give me odds of 1,000
-
@Joseph-Henderson said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
I was wondering if someone could help me with my understanding of the Max Drawdown feature in the software.
It's calculated as the difference between the peak and trough values of your bank, expressed as a percentage.
E.g. Your bank starts at £5000. It increases to £7500 at some point, before dropping to £4000. Then it rebounds to £6000 before dropping again to £3500.
The drawdown is calculated as (3500 - 7500) / 7500. In this case 53.33%.
It's measuring the drawdown between £7500 and £3500. The second peak of £6000 isn't considered because it doesn't represent a new high.
-
@Dan-MacKinnon said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@Danny-Bridges I had a mess about with BSP and got this rules_export (6).json
You can forward test it, but seems to follow your approach. The only issue is how do you know who the favourite is depending on when you place the bets?
Ideally need a horse metric that does well no matter the metric or the BSP price/ranking. I looked at Jockey allowances earlier. It did well but only thanks to a couple of 1000 BSP wins
-
@Danny-Bridges I had a mess about with BSP and got this rules_export (6).json
You can forward test it, but seems to follow your approach. The only issue is how do you know who the favourite is depending on when you place the bets?
-
@Danny-Bridges ah I see what you mean, hard to know what BSP will be isn't it. How have your searches gone so far?
-
@John-Folan @Martin Thanks both for your reply's. I just managed to import the 5f strategy and has decent results but the criteria is very specific from what I can see. I might be trying to live in dreamland but trying to formulate a strategy that ticks over based on set criteria and profitable at BSP so therefore is not reliant on a price range being criteria being met which requires you to be on the button right before the off.
This is not a live example but could be something along the lines of:
runners: 2-8
courses: Kempton, Newcastle, Lingfield, Doncaster.
Age: 4-6
Race distance: 6fThis way your only real variable you have to be aware of is the runners in case there is a race which has 10 runners and contains some qualifiers but would only then hit your criteria if 2 or more non runners.
Hopefully the above makes sense but like I say I will keep dreaming and endeavour to find a strategy like this!