I’ve started revisiting older strategies but restricting from 2023 onwards.

LTBF is looking interesting. Will post more in a few days. They aren’t going to make you a millionaire overnight but with sensible staking should provide an income.

Covid really did knock horse form.

These are now posted daily here: https://lightspeedstats.com/horse-racing-highlights/

@Mark-Hewett always going to be a bit of deviation due to the nature of odds moving so quickly, what time do you enter?

@Martin said in Question about horse section!:

@Patrik-Mellqvist the horse racing has backtesting yes if that's what you are asking

@Martin

Thanks.
Exactly.

Can I test for one month to validate and explore?
Can I use a month subscription?

If I get what I am looking for after the testing period.
Then can I get the same 3-year deal as with a soccer subscription?

Cheers Patrik

Hi Adam. I was trying to create a back strategy looking for horses that ran below their handicap last time/handicap has been lowered focusing on higher quality handicap races with decent prize money (theory being you know the horses will be trying). My thinking is that a lot of money in these higher quality races will be placed on the favourite/tipped horses by pundits leaving some of the "outsiders" to provide value. Obviously this approach won't be for everyone as there will be long losing runs but wondered if you had any comments on my first stab? Is there any way of testing how it would have performed if the selections had been backed each way? Thanks!

rules_export.json

Full details of tomorrow's update here.

Sorry for clickbaity title, it's accurate though!

I know a lot of people have their strategies set up in the software to bet within the last 10 minutes before the race. Are you aware of just how much the prices move around during that time? Especially these days with Betfair liquidity massively down on what it was even 5 years ago.

What I find now is that even on a solid handicap race, the prices will range much more, somewhere around 2 or 3 ticks either side of the average traded price. So you could do 6 ticks better on the same selection simply by better timing your entry bet! What difference would that make to your results?

I'm planning on introducing some "value maximisation" settings into the Betting Rules in the software. Ideas so far:

Entering a trade at the top or bottom of the selection's recent traded range Predicting the stopping or reversal of a trend (kind of the same as 1 tbh, probably based on MACD or price envelopes) Restricting bets based on the back/lay ratio (gap between the top back and lay prices) "Big bet" detection (Outsized bets coming into the market cause big moves) Betting based on proximity to natural or dynamic support and resistance points (natural resistance points basically being the tick crossover points on the ladder, e.g. 3.0, where the increment changes from 0.02 to 0.05) Liquidity related measures like fill rate, amount of money available at a price Backtesting profit figures with thresholds built in, for example telling you what your profit would have been if you'd taken 1 tick better or worse prices

Some of these are going to be quite intensive to calculate on the fly so this probably isn't a quick thing, and I have no idea if you could replicate them in BFBM (I think BetAngel's automations could handle them), but I'll leave that to them!

Those of you who do manual trading and think about this stuff, and also use the software, do you have any other suggestions or requests?

@Adam OK, Im not that bad😁

I was mind you and do need to see a nice graph! My weakness is courses. Im quick to get rid of the ALL -ROI ones. Ill take a closer look at characteristics in the future...

@Martin dobs strategy from my youtube video is here to download: Dobs (Sept 2024): rules_export.json

@Michael-Chalk I think this is a good idea. I'll have a think about how to implement it!

@Kevin-Pepper that's a really great way to look at it!

@Martin Thanks for clarifying this.

what columns do you want?

@Martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:

@John-Folan what you getting done in Turkey?

Teeth, hair transplant, tummy tuck and a face lift 😂

@Adam said in Question About BSP Place Markets:

@Michael-Chalk We get the place prices in a file from Betfair and the event name is still listed as "To Be Placed". BF don't seem to offer this market as a single entity any more on the website.

I think the price is taken from the TBP market with the same number of places as the Each Way market.

Nice and simple 🙄

Betfair don't make life easy for you do they!

@Wayne-Thomas OK thank you Wayne, I will follow with interst ,I noticed 4 possible bets yesterday and 4 winners.

@Adam Thanks Adam. No worries. I know you're a busy man and it's certainly not a pressing problem. That's a good workaround. Thanks for your help.

We only have the full price history for the win market currently but will be adding other markets in future.

It's possible to add the place BSP as a column in the trades results, but it's not currently possible to filter on the place / each way odds.

@James-Mitchell said in DOB% Quesiton - 13/05 (1.47 Catterick):

Is there a benchmark figure or is literally any amount matched at the lowest point in play for said runner?

It's the lowest price with at least £1 matched. We're looking at ways of providing some liquidity settings so you can change the minimum amount matched for things like this 👍