Value
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I have an under 3.5 goals strategy I'm testing and I'm just wondering whether the value would come from the season or the head to head stats.
Betfair odds are 1.39 but this season according to the stats 75% of games have been under 3.5 goals. Checking Ace Odds this should give odds of 1.33.
However, the head to head under 3.5 goals is 60% which would suggest betfair odds of 1.67.
One stats show an edge, the other doesn't. I'm assuming the value is in the season, not H2H but wanted to check.
Thanks.
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@Jamie-Bourne how did it go?
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@Martin They play twice and this will be the second time this season.
I would probably go with the value number but was concerned I was being drawn in by this in an effort to make money.
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@Jamie-Bourne if you wanted you could combine both, depends on what testing tells you about the strategy. How often do said teams play per season?
