Laying "bad tipsters"
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I don't understand, how can laying " bad tipsters" (daily email) can possibly be profitable?
You lay the horse at odds of 6 with 10£, you need 50 liability? That means, one lost will wipe out five wins? -
@ivan1977uk said in Laying "bad tipsters":
I don't understand, how can laying " bad tipsters" (daily email) can possibly be profitable?
You lay the horse at odds of 6 with 10£, you need 50 liability? That means, one lost will wipe out five wins?Principle remains the same no matter what type of event you are trading. If your strike rate of successful trades is greater than your average liability then you will be a long-term winner.
Take your example.
If the average price of all your lays is 6.0 then the implied probability of all those horses winning is 1 in 6 or 16.7%.
If your 'system' for identifying horses to trade results in those horses winning at a frequency of less than 16.7% then you will be profitable.
It is really critical to remember that this is over many hundreds or even thousands of individual trades and that, because of the relative liability and variance, laying horses is not for everyone.