Laying short priced/false favourite and handling
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Good day all,
I run a single tennis strategy which is laying short priced, false favourites from the start of set 1, expecting the underdog to break their serve at which point i cash out for profit.
If the above doesn’t happen there are a couple of ways i mitigate risk.
Profit and loses range between 10%-30% of my stake value.
My question is I’m finding that on some trades which includes all outcomes; wins, loses, scratches, that there can be 25% profit or 5-10% loss before the target position arrives for example, profit is available before the underdog breaks serve, or a very small loss is available after I’ve begun risk mitigation (because i will no longer win the trade) before the underdog breaks back to reduce my overall loss or end of 1st set arrives where i will exit/end the trade entirely
When these opportunities arrive, would you take them and move on?
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I like this way of thinking Chris. Simple but effective in terms of research as the player 1 and 2 are by each other. Flashscore is my usual go to for looking at players pre match starting price as it’s all there in columns. But Flashscore doesn’t show everything. How do you get on with these chosen matches? Do you find there are a lot of underdogs that win the second set if they have a better win percentage than the favourite over the last 10 matches?
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I have a strategy on short priced favourites on the ATP. I will back the dog and lay the fav on the dogs serve. If the Fav is serving 1st in set 1 I let him serve for an even better price which will be nice and short. After the dogs serve I take out the Lay on the fav. I leave the back bet on in case my dog breaks serve. If they do I take 50% of my liability out. I then add another point on the dog. If the dog confirms the break with their hold of serve, I then take out ALL my liability.From this point I usually wait for the dog to win set or until dog gets broken. I have also hedged after the confirmation of the break for a good profit if I think the fav has a good chance of breaking back and winning the first set. I like this strategy because if I feel the dog has been lucky and is struggling with his first few service games, then I can also hedge at 2-2 for a profit as I am acquiring green from each service game the dog has. At 4-4 it’s an automatic hedge. Also 4-3 if the fav has held his serve to make it that. Reason for the last hedge at 4-3 is if the dog starts his serve off badly say 0-30 down you will probably be in the red at this stage by over 25%. Then if dog gets broken , the fav is 5-3 up and serving for the set. The market would have turned badly against you now prob over 40% red as its only first set. In slams it’s even less as there are 5 sets. It also depends on the game and opponents. There is a lot of flexibility with this strategy and many good timely exit points depending on how you are feeling the match is going.What I am hoping for is for the fav to start slowly or that he is a renowned slow burner who doesn’t get going until set 2. Like Andy Murray used to.Sometimes strong favs aren’t even motivated enough in the first set against an outsider and think that they can cruise by without any effort. I’ve seen it many times. I would love to get this strategy down in Betfair bot programme which I will be getting at Christmas. Yes… I’ve already asked the wife for it as a Christmas pressie lol
Anyway I hope this helps in some way. Risk adverse is always my way and I feel this strategy does this. -
@Martin Hi, thanks yes i think I’ll have to do this as you say to find out. I track the trades so in time should be able to.
I think getting out of a losing trade with the smallest loss could be something i focus more on rather than staying in for slightly greater wins. Kind of the same thing but the opposite.
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@Chris-King this might be one where you look at average profit and find the balance. You could compare the average of the 10-30 range to the 25% one and see which would make more money over time.
