Understanding the 1st/ 2nd/ 3rd/ 4th Fav Filter esp on 'Lay The Beaten Fav at Odds 3-15' pre-set
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Hi All,
I was trying to tinker with the 'Lay The beaten Fav 3-15' pre-set (in my own area) and can't understand the number of results I'm getting with the 'Favourites' filter.
The explanation when I hover over it reads "Restrict your results to horses that were 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th favourite in the race (according to BSP)". So to my mind, if I select fav and 2nd fav (as per the filter), this should restrict the results to horses that were a beaten fav in their previous race (from the first filter) and then went off in their next race as 1st favourite or 2nd fav? For this I get 3,826 results.
This makes sense until I increasing the range selecting 1st, 2nd , 3rd and 4th favourites and get just 1,482 results - surely if I'm opening the range to include all horses that were listed in their next race as either 1/2/3 or 4th fav, this will mean more qualifiers - not less?
If anyone could shed light on this, I'd be very grateful.
Many thanks,
Michael
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@Paul-Foster said in Understanding the 1st/ 2nd/ 3rd/ 4th Fav Filter esp on 'Lay The Beaten Fav at Odds 3-15' pre-set:
@Michael-Chalk I was wrong about the course filter. the green line to the side links it back to the all selection. If it was part of the non group, the line would be blue.
This is correct.
The strategy rules are nested into groups. Think of it like levels.
The green ones are all in level 1 and the match type is "All", which is like saying "this whole list of rules must apply".
Inside that top level group is another group with the match type switched to "None". These level 2 rules are all blue.
So it's saying "Give me horses which were beaten fave in their last race, who are running in any of these race types at any of these courses, but are NOT 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th favourite".
It's easier to see if you drag the courses rule up to be fair. Maybe we can force some re-ordering when the strategies are saved to help with this.
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@Michael-Chalk I was wrong about the course filter. the green line to the side links it back to the all selection. If it was part of the non group, the line would be blue.
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@Jonathan-Jones This was my original understanding - but then it made no sense that picking only horses that were fav/2nd fav over the last 30months of data gives a result of nearly twice as many selections as if we layed horses that were 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th. Surely that would be more.
@Paul-Foster This makes sense as to why 1st/ 2nd's are recording twice the number of results than the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4ths - so the key, you're saying, is the selection of the rule type above it as 'none' since it effectively reverses the rule to say that a selection must NOT meet any of the criteria below it to qualify. The only question I would have then is why when I select all tracks on the same pre-set do I still get a figure of 5000 matches - surely with the 'none' criteria selected it is saying it will select any horse that hasn't finished 1st or 2nd and hasn't run at one of the 87 tracks we can select. The number should then be 0, rather than a very large number of selections?
Thank you for your input - I am starting to get there (slowly)
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@Michael-Chalk the fav filter will not select horses which were 1st or 2nd fav.
So, if you add 3rd and 4th fav it will not select horses which were in any of these positions at the off. This is why there is less selections.
Thats what the "none" in the group above the fav criteria is managing.
Its the same of the course selections, its saying not to select any races from the courses listed.
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Thats not how it works. The Favourite filter is a massive talking point here at the moment. Its going to be doing/meaning different things depending on context.
In terms of the filter and the backtest what its doing is regardless of your chosen time window for placing the bets its picking the horses that were favourite or second favourite at BSP (though pretty sure it uses the odds they were at the bet time). So if your bet time is 10 mins from the race start the horse in the backtest WONT be the ones you would of actually picked at 10 mins out (not all of them and not all the time anyway). This gives the backtest a bit of a cheat in terms of selections and value. You will notice when you run the backtest the next day and compare it to bets actually taken you will of taken different bets to the backtest.
In terms of filter and qualifiers i think it narrows selections to horses that were favourite etc when the softwear last updated its criteria. If you have a strategy that has favourite (or certain other critera such as number of runners etc. Basically anything that can change through the day) you need to create a new version (call it filter or something) and remove those criteria from it. Set this version as active to give you your qualifiers then either manually or by automation apply the favourite condition to your actual betting.
One last thing. This is changing. An update is on the way that will mean in terms of the backtest that the favourite (and others i hope) condition will be based on the values at bet time. This should mean when you run the backtest the next day it will be more consistent with the bets you actually took and obvioualy mean the backtest P/L is a lot more realistic in terms of what you could actually of done if you traded it live. I think you will still need to create a seperate filter though so it doesnt effect the selections.
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@Martin - I'll try (I cant find an attach file feature, so I'll use the 'upload image' and hope this works). Screenshot 1 is the 'Lay The Beaten Fav 3-15 pre-set' settings with Fav and 2nd Fav selected. Screenshot 2 is the results for the pre-set showing 3,826 results. Screenshot 3 is my version with 3rd and 4th Fav added to 1st and 2nd Fav. Screenshot 4 shows the reduced number of results - 1,482 (which I thought should be more than if just fav and 2nd fav were selected. Many thanks, Michael
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@Michael-Chalk can you post any screenshots? I'll tag @Adam hard to know without seeing it
