The Winning Edge Challenge – 3 Simple Steps
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@Nikki-HALSALL Awesome, thanks for sharing this! Will get stuck into it over the remainder of the week and will share any findings. Hopefully others can contribute too!
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Hi
This is the spreadsheet for just short of 1000 matches on the FHG
Be gentle this is my first share
On the Grand Total page i have made anything in profit with more than 10 selections green, anything in profit with less than 10 selections blue
Not sure about next steps, so questions
- Create a 2.0 with only successful leagues?
- Continue to monitor all leagues - or cull the ones with over 10, 15 or 20 matches that are in a negative?
- Ditch leagues with low liquidity?
- There is data collected to show 0-0 HT v 2nd goal - dig into which leagues this works best for?
Any suggestions on the way to collate data are also welcome.
NB: As i was back-checking odds I figured I might as well pop in the lay odds although the totals sheet currently shows it as a back strategy the individual sheets show the lay profit/loss as well as the back.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hG_FE5mCqXqdtyMRH3ler8r3-ZvdG5_4YEmnzhmIKPE/edit?usp=sharing
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@Alex-Rendell thanks Alex - I am always happy to accept help. I am just splitting the leagues down and then will share it, hopefully either middle of this week or next weekend.
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@Nikki-HALSALL I'd be more than happy to look at all of the above for you/with you; love delving into a decent data set!
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I have 987 matches, over the summer I have been adding the odds at kick off, I
have split into leagues, am very close to sharing the results - a league cull will definitely make a big difference - may some help with the odd ranges at some point. -
@Gwynn-Lewis have you had a look at odds range or leagues? Interested to know what performed well and what didn't, could then create a 2.0 version and split test the two.
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0.5 FHG - BTC Strategy.xls
Chart - 0.5FHG - BTC strategy.xlsxHi All
Further update for you on the 0.5 FHG strategy. At 17/08/25 we're back down to just £18.25 profit at £10 stakes. This is after 419 trades since 14/03/25 (5 months). Had you placed the trades at KO rather than wait the 15 minutes then profit would be higher at £32.74. Had you placed a second half Over 0.5 trade when the first half trade lost then a £33.49 loss would have been incurred. Full results and chart attached.
It's a disappointing outcome for a strategy that's billed to make consistent profits over the last 10 years. Could be this is just a bad stretch I've hit on, but with no results history available to compare with I can't really comment further.
When I joined in January I set about designing my own 0.5FHG strategy and hopped on to tracking this strategy, as I'd seen the video and thought it would help my project. It has, so that's a positive for me.
I'm not going to track this strategy further given the results, but good luck to anyone who does and I hope it works out for you.
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@Gwynn-Lewis that is the kind of variance I expect with any outright backing strategy. Good results so far! Thanks for doing this.
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Hi All
Attached is my updated spreadsheet tracking progress on the FHG strategy since my previous update on 22 May.
Up to 12/07/25 there have been 304 selections since I started on 14/03/25 (120 days). Of those selections 86 did not reach the target price of 1.4 before the first goal. Of the remaining 218 there were 63 losers generating a strike rate of 71.1%.
Staking £10 on each selection would have produced a profit of £82.44 ( or 8.2 points). The graph tracks the progress and after the rollercoaster experience reported in May a steady position has been maintained with a recent winning run lifting the curve. Had you backed a goal in the second half where the HT score was 0-0 a £13.96 loss (to £10 stakes) would have resulted. Finally, had you staked £10 on the odds at KO (instead of waiting for the 1.4 to be matched) then a £64.90 profit would have been achieved.
After almost a third of a calendar year and over 300 selections, this strategy is proving to be a slow burner and as we saw earlier in the year could so easily go into reverse. As the winter leagues have wound down and the summer leagues become established we can see an upturn. Perhaps there is something in that. Personally, I still think a 10 match history is too short and will experiment a bit more with that as an aside going forward.
As always, I would welcome your thoughts and feedback.
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@Patrik-Mellqvist You must have read my mind, have been thinking is this a "back a goal" or "Lay the draw" at HT
Need to do the research, will report in when I have done that.
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@Nikki-HALSALL said in The Winning Edge Challenge – 3 Simple Steps:
@Ryan Thanks Ryan - will keep an eye on it once it gets up to 500 there will be a bit more data to scrutinise
@Nikki-HALSALL
Just want to ask a simple question, and it would mean something for me, how many of them had at least one full-time goal?
Or how many of the 500 ended with 0-0? (full-time).Have a nice day!
Patrik
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@Nikki-HALSALL @Ryan @Martin
Thanks for your positive feedback and I'm glad you like the data.
I've looked at the results per league and at this stage I'm not identifying a stand out loser but would suggest that maybe we're not allowing new leagues enough breathing space and that 10 matches (5 per team) is too early an entry point for a new season. For example, on 18th May there were 4 selections from the USA MLS, three of these lost.
Column E and F on my sheet have certain matches highlighted in blue from mid-April. These are 'Nothing To Play For' (NTPF) games where promotion, relegation, play off, euro places etc. are a non possibility for both teams. There have been 31 such selections but only 5 lost. Despite no apparent incentive goals are still going in! This follows on from Nikki's point about the in-play stats not reflecting the goals scored. At the end of the day, whatever criteria we set for a 'set and forget' will be based on history and a probability of what to expect. Football never quite works out like that - it's a funny old game!!
Anyway, on we go and let's see what the summer leagues produce. We're off to a good start with the first Swedish selection last night. First goal on 21 minutes and 1.56 matched.
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@Gwynn-Lewis This is amazing thank you for taking the time to write this up.
I am pretty impressed that you have managed to work this around your life as well and think about how you can get the selections and then get them on, love that.
Top work.
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@Gwynn-Lewis that is a fantastic update!
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@Gwynn-Lewis This is excellent, great data, thanks for sharing.
I think once certain leagues are removed it will show more profit and maybe less volatility perhaps. It soon became apparent that due to the number of matches and the times it would be fantastic to explore a set & forget
On the matches I have been present for the in-play stats at 10-15 mins are also erratic, some matches have zero shots of any kind and then score within 20 mins and others have 3 SOTs each and are 0-0 at HT!!
The surprising stat was the over 0.5 @ HT would have meant a bigger loss, maybe there is something in that? ie back/lay O/U 1.5 depending on odds at HT and get out if no goal before 65-70 mins or if a goal goes in take the loss etc? Or, Or, Or ...........
So much data and so little time
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I attach my updated spreadsheet for the 0.5FH strategy. There are two worksheets - Data and Chart.
DATA
There have been 233 selections between 16/03/25 and 20/05/25 (67 days).
From these are 117 winners, 50 losers and 66 that failed to match due to goal before 15 minutes.
As I cannot trade most matches live I place a trade pre-match (as close to KO as possible) at odds +20. Where I have been able to trade live I find that the 15 minute price is usually around 20 ticks above the SP.
I normally pick up the selections from BTC mid-morning but I note that selections can drop off the list as the day progresses and new ones added due to the moving O2.5 goals price which is part of the selection criteria. I stick to my morning list as I'm not able to pop in and out of BTC during the day.
Current profit is £31.04 to £10 stakes. Had I gone with the SP rather than waiting 15 minutes, profit would be
£22,81. Thirdly, had I placed a second £10 trade on the FT 0.5 market at HT when the score was 0-0 an additional loss of £18.76 would have resulted. I've not been able to proof the odds as often as I would have liked on this second half follow up option, so majority are estimated based on the few I have seen.CHART
This sums up the performance over time and yes, it's a rollercoaster all right!!! A steady climb to over 7 points then we fall right back to a negative position, then a sharp climb back with a steady pattern recently around the 2 to 4 point mark.I'm not a fan of volatility so am very wary of this strategy. If it has been performing well over time then 67 days is a small window to reach any conclusions, but I'm not inclined to up my stakes on what I'm seeing. This is a lot of trading for a small return. I shall keep monitoring, hopefully for a full year, so that I can draw some conclusions.
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All In.
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@Nikki-HALSALL Perfect, its a good time to have the bank holidays as well as its where we are now changing to the summer leagues which have got a few games under their belt so good time to be able to check the data.
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@Ryan Yes its a tough one but i will get round to culling a few leagues and see if it stabilises.
Just trying to edit my current spreadsheet to make analysing data a bit easier, hopefully over the bank Holiday weekend, will report back in soon (ish)
