MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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@darri Cheers Darri, just the type of message that reinforces me to continue with what i was doing and don't deviate. Think this has potential to be a good strategy so will carry on recording and hope this continues with the good strike rate and then pick apart after 160 games the data and see how i can improve .
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@darri For me also doing it this way takes the stress out of it.
You know what each stage consists of and when they should happen. There is no 'should I? should't I?' question about trading. If you are mid cycle then no I should not. End of cycle I move to the next stage, no choices needed there really. Also like you say, it really doesn't take that long once you get going.
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@matt-wood spot on mate. It can be a grind especially thinking how long that process could be but once you do it you realise it takes less time than first thought. The reason i do mine in those kind of phases is because at each stage im doing small tweaks to see improvement and how that affects the strategy in the next phase etc. Its basically building a strategy slowly and naturally improving it. I in the past used to spot something in the data and then try come up with a complete strategy and start trading only to find it wasnt actually that good in the next batch of games. This way im not having my opinion influence my views on the data im just waiting till each cycle/phase of games come and if im improving on each batch then its working. Slow and steady so they say. All about building a solid foundation, there are plenty of profitable strategies out there but its you the individual that needs to execute it well and in my opinion that is done by building confidence through data and proof it works. Thats why most of the more experienced traders talk about how the stepping stone from finding a good strategy is the psychology of trading that determines how much longevity you can have, something even im still trying to work on.
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@matt-wood said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Afternoon James, good to see things going well
My testing I have adopted a lot of stuff from @Darri and his blog. I run my test for an initial 100-150 games to get a 'feel' then if I think it is good enough I go through the data and make a tweak I think will increase the SR then run for another 100-150 games, this time with a 1pt assumed stake.
I am close to reaching the end of this second phase on one of my tests when I plan on entering the dreaded 'REAL MONEY STAKE' of £2 (and watch it fall apart lol). This I will do for another 100 games, or stop if it goes wrong.
Only after this will I consider raising my stake.
Hope that helps a bit.
Hi Matt hope you are keeping well mate. Thanks for the time to reply to my post appreciate the advice.
You are right the amount of games i currently have wasn't enough data yet, think i may have been getting ahead of myself just needed that confirmation from someone that was the case.I will carry on as i have with my min £2 liability lay stakes and get to 150 games and evaluate the results and filter out any leagues and or teams that are performing poorly , also i will be able to find the odds range that is profitable and make amendments to my filter. Then i will run for a further 150 games and then if still profitable will start increasing my stakes to 2% of my bank. Thanks for the heads up
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Afternoon James, good to see things going well
My testing I have adopted a lot of stuff from @Darri and his blog. I run my test for an initial 100-150 games to get a 'feel' then if I think it is good enough I go through the data and make a tweak I think will increase the SR then run for another 100-150 games, this time with a 1pt assumed stake.
I am close to reaching the end of this second phase on one of my tests when I plan on entering the dreaded 'REAL MONEY STAKE' of £2 (and watch it fall apart lol). This I will do for another 100 games, or stop if it goes wrong.
Only after this will I consider raising my stake.
Hope that helps a bit.
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Morning all , i have been recording my results and for the last 6-7weeks and on one of my filters my own set and forget ltd at kick seems to be doing well.
My question is i have 73 trades for this with 60 wins with a strike rate of 82% with a profit of £17.10 using the minimum £2-00 liability stakes at what stage would you say you have enough data to suggest this could be a good strategy to increase my stakes to a larger stake ie 2 or 3% of my bank . Would you say now or when you have 300-400 matches of data? -
@chris-osborne said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard Sometimes means the formula hasn't copied down properly from the previous row, if you try dragging down the last working formula to the rows below, should hopefully work
Hi Chris , i had a look on utube and it was to do with autosum need to add the value again and it seems to have worked until my fat finger then presses the wrong button again lol. Thanks anyway
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@james-everard Sometimes means the formula hasn't copied down properly from the previous row, if you try dragging down the last working formula to the rows below, should hopefully work
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@martin-futter said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard #REF usually just means the equation symbols used were wrong, so you may have missed a symbol in the formula or sonething like that, in my experience.
Ok i will have to try and figure it out will look on utube hopefully work it out as i don't want to have to start my recordings all over again
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@gary-tunnicliffe Interesting anyway you think you could refine the bot to improve your results ? i was trading grey hounds and would have been profitable if i was disciplined but i had 2 or 3 great days then blow it all in one evening. Discipline is key mate
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@james-everard #REF usually just means the equation symbols used were wrong, so you may have missed a symbol in the formula or sonething like that, in my experience.
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Hi all , can anyone assist please. Sorry i have pretty basic skills with spreadsheets ( infact no skills lol) . I have a spreadsheet set up recording my results and happened recently and didn't know how to resolve so started recording again.
The same thing has happened again i have obviously pressed a button i shouldn't have and now my results are note calculating in the total profit and loss column. The say #REF! . You can see on my spreadsheet signature
Anyone know please what i have to do to resolve the issue thanks -
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@gary-tunnicliffe said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
James the greyhounds are my cup of tea, how are you progressing are you laying or dutching for a win ? i have greater success on the aussie dogs to UK and find TAB to be a great source of info / selections. (and live radio)
Hi Gary my problem with Greyhounds is mentality. If my head is right i know i could make greyhounds trading profitable, i have a strategy i am certain that would be profitable if i could make sure i didn't chase losses after a couple of losing trades.
I used to use Greydata for Aussie data not heard of that one i will have a check up on this site. problem i found little to no liquidity in Aussie races what strategy are you using then mate?i stumbled across a betangel bot that dutches selections based on book % and ive been playing with that for a while now up & down playing with percentages to get the best SR, dutching the front 3 selections to a fixed amount.
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@james-everard That't one of the hidden benefits of a trading plan, on the surface it looks restrictive and stressful but actually it provides less stress & usually better results.
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@gary-tunnicliffe said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
James the greyhounds are my cup of tea, how are you progressing are you laying or dutching for a win ? i have greater success on the aussie dogs to UK and find TAB to be a great source of info / selections. (and live radio)
Hi Gary my problem with Greyhounds is mentality. If my head is right i know i could make greyhounds trading profitable, i have a strategy i am certain that would be profitable if i could make sure i didn't chase losses after a couple of losing trades.
I used to use Greydata for Aussie data not heard of that one i will have a check up on this site. problem i found little to no liquidity in Aussie races what strategy are you using then mate? -
@ryan-carruthers said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard Nice SR!
Thanks Ryan still very early days mate before i increase my stakes from the minimum liabilty stake of £2, once i get to 100 plus matches and if the strike rate is still over 80% i will increase my staking. Had not such a good evening today with 2 losers out of 5 this evening, but sticking to my staking plan the stress is taken away from trading
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@james-everard fantastic work as ever!
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James the greyhounds are my cup of tea, how are you progressing are you laying or dutching for a win ? i have greater success on the aussie dogs to UK and find TAB to be a great source of info / selections. (and live radio)
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@james-everard Nice SR!
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February update .
Now down to 3 strategies two set and forget versions of the lay the draw and one split stake 1.5 goal strategy. I reset my results spreadsheet from the 21st of this month and will just be recording these strategies from now on and any others i will paper trade to test the strategies.
The first strategy is the Stuart's ltd at kick off strategy, not been the best of times so far but i have missed some matches that were winners and like Stuart has mentioned over the long term this system is profitable just going through a bad patch
Results 20 trades , 12 winners , 8 losers strike rate of 60% and current loss of £8.09The second strategy is my split stake over 1.5 goal strategy. This can be frustrating system as only 4 matches i have traded with goals often going in before the 30min entry point. Although i think this will work out with patience if i miss matches.
Results 4 trades , 2 winners , 2 losing trades with a strike rate of 50% current running at a loss of £5.30The final strategy which is my own variation of a lay the draw at kickoff . This is performing very well so far. The filter i use to determine the trades are as follows
Overall Matches played 10 or greater
Home matches played 5 or greater
Away matches played 5 or greater
Overall drew - less/equal to 6
Home Team drew- less than equal to 5
Away team drew- Less than equal to 5
Overall drew percentage - less than/equal to 20%
Away drew percentage - less than/equal to 20%
Home Drew Percentage - less than/equal to 20%
Betfair draw odds - less than 5.0
I also check the h2h fulltime results between the two sides (last 5 matches) and max of 1 match has been a draw
Taken out all the lower liability leagues and leagues unlikely going in playResults for this strategy are total traded 28 matches, won 25, lost 3 , strike rate 89% profit so far £13.74
