MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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@darri said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard the easiest way to calculate points is just take your starting bank and divide it by 100.
so 1 point of a £100 bank is £1
so 1 point of a £200 bank is £2So for when you start with a £200 bank you said you will be using £4 stakes, that is not 1 point that is 2 points/2% of the bank. Just keep it that simple. End of each month or whenever you change stakes/compound thats when you change the points value. Its simple when you just think about dividing your bank by 100 an then that is then 1 point. Not sure i like the point system you were thinking of, just complicates it further. Cant go wrong with this method and is a great measure of a strategy overall/long term rather than short sharp bursts.
Thanks for explaining i have obviously got confused with the point system . Can you help my pea brain understand , So if you say started off with a £200 bank and using 2% stakes (2 points which is £4) and i am up for instance on the system and the end of the month i have £230 in the bank is that 30 points profit or 15?
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@james-everard the easiest way to calculate points is just take your starting bank and divide it by 100.
so 1 point of a £100 bank is £1
so 1 point of a £200 bank is £2So for when you start with a £200 bank you said you will be using £4 stakes, that is not 1 point that is 2 points/2% of the bank. Just keep it that simple. End of each month or whenever you change stakes/compound thats when you change the points value. Its simple when you just think about dividing your bank by 100 an then that is then 1 point. Not sure i like the point system you were thinking of, just complicates it further. Cant go wrong with this method and is a great measure of a strategy overall/long term rather than short sharp bursts.
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@darri said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard im glad you are doing it this way instead of rushing to get things all setup. Im guessing with the lay underdog you have managed to get on a few late ones which have bumped the p/l high. Would be interesting to see how these do long term without these low price lays. I think thats why others have failed at underdog lays because typically early underdog leads still have high prices. Based on your strike rate id assume you have had a couple low price lays that went on to win.
Asked stuart about his ltd, summer leagues didnt perform well at all, but winter leagues have soared in p/l so that will come good again.
Your LTD seems solid. I want to ask tho you are using the £ measurement instead of points, id encourage you to start measuring strats based on points/% of bank. It gets ugly trying to figure out the success of strats when you start changing stakes etc. So what have you made points wise from 559 trades? Im just gonna guess that you have made 32points as id guess these are based off a £100 bank?
Looking good tho mate keep it up
Hi Dari hope you are well mate?
i am currently just trading the minimum £2 liability stakes as was testing, this will continue until i finish completing my spreadsheet results for August.
I will then will start trading properly with a £200 starting trading bank using 2% stakes so will be £4 trading stakes for 1 point. It gets complicated calculating the way i have but like you say calculating the way you suggest will be better in the long run. I am not sure what the points based profit is so far as complicated for my pea brain to work out lol
The laying of the underdogs system as you eluded to has been profitable due to a couple of underdogs taking a goal late in the game and for the favorite to equalize late on as well, and also if they underdog goes 2-0 up, was Hoping the strike rate will improve and i am going to start to be more selective with my selections and not just base purely on the filter but also the inplay stats more. I am using a filter i have set and not the ratings page if anyone wants me to share i am more than happy to pass on -
@james-everard im glad you are doing it this way instead of rushing to get things all setup. Im guessing with the lay underdog you have managed to get on a few late ones which have bumped the p/l high. Would be interesting to see how these do long term without these low price lays. I think thats why others have failed at underdog lays because typically early underdog leads still have high prices. Based on your strike rate id assume you have had a couple low price lays that went on to win.
Asked stuart about his ltd, summer leagues didnt perform well at all, but winter leagues have soared in p/l so that will come good again.
Your LTD seems solid. I want to ask tho you are using the £ measurement instead of points, id encourage you to start measuring strats based on points/% of bank. It gets ugly trying to figure out the success of strats when you start changing stakes etc. So what have you made points wise from 559 trades? Im just gonna guess that you have made 32points as id guess these are based off a £100 bank?
Looking good tho mate keep it up
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@chris-osborne said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard Stuart has posted earlier this week that his strategy has not been good on the summer leagues this season
Hopefully your third strategy which is already looking good will show more returns now fans are back in alot of leagues
Hi Chris hope you are keeping well. Luckily very few matches on my own ltd are the same selections as Stuarts version. Will carry on recording the results for August and then make a decision whether to continue with Stuarts version as well or just stick to mine.
The 3rd strategy (laying of the underdog) i think you are right with fans now back in the grounds the surprise results will not be as many as last season, i have a filter set up (not using the football ratings ) which seems to be doing ok especially if you can pick up a match late in the game. -
@james-everard Stuart has posted earlier this week that his strategy has not been good on the summer leagues this season
Hopefully your third strategy which is already looking good will show more returns now fans are back in alot of leagues
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@james-everard Weekend of trying to catch up inputting results on my speadsheet which i need to do asap. The quicker i can update my results and quicker i can see if there are any leagues to odds ranges i need to stick within. I believe my own ltd at kick off and laying of the underdog could be onto something will know more once completed.
Here are the 3 strategies i have been continuing with using £2 min liability stakes
Strategy 1- Stuarts Set and Forget ltd-
Trades for June- Total trades 28 , won 22, lost 6, s/rate 78.57% monthly profit £ 6.30
Total results to date- Trades 297 won 231, lost 66, s/rate 78% total profit £0-73Strategy 2- My own set and Forget ltd-
Trades for June - Total trades 51, won 41, lost 10 , strike rate 80.39%, monthly profit £7.14
Total results to date - Trades 559, won 429, lost 130, s/rate 77% , total profit £32.21Strategy 3- Laying the underdog if they the take the lead
Trades for June- Trades 9 , won 4 , lost 5, s/rate 44.44% , profit £18.21
Total results to date - Trades 27, won 18, lost 9 , s.rate 67%, total profit £38.73Total profit for June for the 3 systems £31.65
Will crack on and input more date and hope in the very near future be ready to take that leap at 2.5% of my bank. Once i start i will be updating regularly on my blog like many others do.
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Update for my June results as previously mentioned no where near as many trades , although in June i was still trading the full time and half time dutching of the correct score markets which i no longer am so didn't bother recording these systems on my results spreadsheet
System 1 - Stuarts Set and forget Ltd - Trades 18, Won 13, Lost 5 , strike rate 72.22% Monthly loss of (-£2.86)
Total trades so far for the system- Trades 269, won 209, Lost 60, strike rate 78% , Loss of (-£5.57)
System 2- My own set and forget Ltd- Trades 14, Won 9 , Lost 5, strike rate 64.29% , Monthly loss of -£3.21
Total trades so far for the system- Trades 508, won 388, Lost 120, strike rate 76%, Profit £25.07
System 3 - Lay the underdog if they take the lead- Trades 5 , won 3, lost 2, Strike rate 66%, Profit of £1.41
Total trades so far for the system- Trades 18, won 14 , lost 4, strike rate 78%, Profit £20.52
System 4- Ltd at ht if 0-0 or 1-1- Trades 1 , Won 0, Lost 1, strike rate 0%, loss of -£2-00
Total trades to date 77, won 53, lost 24, strike rate 69% profit if £19.93
So for all trades for June i have lost a total of -£6.51. I thought this would be the case as June seemed poor and hopefully the trading results will improve when i input the July results .
The plan is to continue with these strategies until the end of August using my £2 liability stakes and carry on recording my results for July and August. I will analyse the data and remove certain leagues if necessary and find the best odds range for long term profitability ,Then the 1st of September i am going to take the plunge and use 2% of my bank stakes and finally go for it -
Ive got to agree with a lot of what else is being said here. I used to do the same, i started with one strategy then added another and another and then something would go wrong and id find i hadnt had the focus to work out why - was it something id done or just variance.
I trade primarily SH goals now and i can soon see why something has gone wrong. I am still collecting a fair bit of data on the side and one day i can hopefully call on this data for but it doesnt distract from my main trading strategy. Im not in a position yet to not be affected by the balance of over/undertrading but something to think about is that no successful trader ever suggests adding more strategies and trading more
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My advice to you would be pick one of the proven strategies for now JUST ONE and test your own LTD in the background. You say it has fallen over the last couple of months but so have most strategies, even STuarts is struggling. Keep at it but don’t trade it.
Less is more -
Just reread your post James. I echo what Chris is saying. I am now doing 2 strategies and one of those has only had 22 trades in the last 6 weeks so I am only really at one with many trades. I used to be like yourself James, not sure what strategy to be sticking to and chopping and changing then going back and forward etc etc etc. My head was fried. I started following Keith’s over 1.5s but am now only doing my own over 1,5 and shg strategies, it really is a huge weight of the mind. If I don’t update my results for a while it doesn’t take long to catch up, also I don’t feel bogged down wondering which road to take.
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@james-everard Sounds promising - but 5 strategies are still too much, 1 or 2 at most - been there and done that
By all means test the others but actually trading, restrict yourself to one or two alongside the profitible Set and forgets we have on here.
If you reduce the volume to profitible strategies, then you can leverage your bankroll and gradually increase your stakes and get yourself out of the min stakes vacuum.
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HI all thanks for your replies. As previously mentioned a month or so ago May was my last over trading month , although June and July will still be too many games i am sure it will be considerably less than May.
Then after i have recorded the results on the spreadsheet like you say it is far to time consuming with that amount of games a reset will take place, at least two of the systems will be scraped and then i want to pull apart the data and look to improve more and reduce the quantity of selections . By Mid August early september trading will be totally different and will be much more selective and not to let it over whelm me and hopefully i can start making money -
I agree with Eamonn here James you've got to many games here look at the volume Darri and keith post its one or two games a day currently probably ramp up a bit as Winter leagues start kicking in but 577 games a month how do you keep track.
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@martin said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard I'm without broadband due to a house move so I'm analysing 6 months worth of data from my software downloads, man it's so time consuming easy to get behind!
You LTD set and forget looks good!
Hope the move goes well a stressful time no doubt.
I know very time consuming, i got behind and then went away and been going to the gym more after work so need to set aside an hour an evening to try to catch up.
My ltd set and forget i think after May has gone downhill will know once i get the records upto date. -
Glad to see you have started to be more disciplined in your trades and not have the occasional loss on horses or dogs. Am I right in saying that you done 577 trades in may alone? If that’s the case mate that’s a hell of a lot, no wonder you are behind with the data. You need to be able to handle the mental side of it too mate and certainly for me 577 trades on one month would break me.
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@james-everard I'm without broadband due to a house move so I'm analysing 6 months worth of data from my software downloads, man it's so time consuming easy to get behind!
You LTD set and forget looks good!
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Rather behind on my trading spreadsheet results. Finally just completed my May results which are listed below.
I am carrying on with £2 min liability stakes on my strategies until i complete the results recording of June and July and my plan is to hopefully have caught up with the results for the start of September .
By which time i will have plenty of data to analyse and hopefully one or two systems will be worth with a couple of tweaks increasing my stakes to 2.5% of my bank and deleting or amending the ones that are performing poorlySystem 1 ( Stuart's set and forget ltd at ko)
Trades 82 , Won 64 lost 18 strike rate 78.05% Profit £1.69
Total trades on this system to end of May 251 trades, Won 196, Lost 55 , s/rate 78% Loss of -£2.71System 2 - (Dutch full time correct score)
Trades 168 , won 134, lost 34, s/rate 79.16% Loss of - £7.96
Total trades to date on this system end of May- 355 trades , won 283, lost 72 ,s/r 80% profit £3.17System 3 - (My own set and forget ltd at ko)
Trades 157 , Won 120, Lost 37 , s/rate 76.43% loss of -£0.30
Total trades to date on this system end of May- 494 trades, won 379, lost 115, s/rate 77%, profit of £28.28System 4 ( Dutch 1st half correct score)
Trades 135, won 75 , lost 60 , s/rate 55.55% , Loss of -£38.41
Total trades to date on this system end of May - 342 trades, Won 230, lost 112 , s/rate 67% , Lost stands at - £40.59System 5 - ( Ltd at half time if 0-0 or 1-1)
Trades 22 , won 21, lost 1, s/rate 95.55% , profit £19.82
Total trades to date on this system end of may - 76 trades , won 53, lost 23, s/rate 70% , profit to date £21.93System 6 ( Lay the underdog inplay if they take the lead) new one
Trades Trades 13, Won 11 , lost 2 , s/rate 85%, Profit £19.11Will update June once i have loaded all the results
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@stuart-capstick said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Change the W/L to Y or N, instead of 1 and 0
Profit column
=IF(O8="Y",0.98,-(n8-1))Then Cum profit
in cell Q8, type =P8
in cell Q9, type =Q8+P9Thanks Stuart will give it a try shortly really appreciate mate
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Change the W/L to Y or N, instead of 1 and 0
Profit column
=IF(O8="Y",0.98,-(n8-1))Then Cum profit
in cell Q8, type =P8
in cell Q9, type =Q8+P9
