MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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Rather behind on my trading spreadsheet results. Finally just completed my May results which are listed below.
I am carrying on with £2 min liability stakes on my strategies until i complete the results recording of June and July and my plan is to hopefully have caught up with the results for the start of September .
By which time i will have plenty of data to analyse and hopefully one or two systems will be worth with a couple of tweaks increasing my stakes to 2.5% of my bank and deleting or amending the ones that are performing poorlySystem 1 ( Stuart's set and forget ltd at ko)
Trades 82 , Won 64 lost 18 strike rate 78.05% Profit £1.69
Total trades on this system to end of May 251 trades, Won 196, Lost 55 , s/rate 78% Loss of -£2.71System 2 - (Dutch full time correct score)
Trades 168 , won 134, lost 34, s/rate 79.16% Loss of - £7.96
Total trades to date on this system end of May- 355 trades , won 283, lost 72 ,s/r 80% profit £3.17System 3 - (My own set and forget ltd at ko)
Trades 157 , Won 120, Lost 37 , s/rate 76.43% loss of -£0.30
Total trades to date on this system end of May- 494 trades, won 379, lost 115, s/rate 77%, profit of £28.28System 4 ( Dutch 1st half correct score)
Trades 135, won 75 , lost 60 , s/rate 55.55% , Loss of -£38.41
Total trades to date on this system end of May - 342 trades, Won 230, lost 112 , s/rate 67% , Lost stands at - £40.59System 5 - ( Ltd at half time if 0-0 or 1-1)
Trades 22 , won 21, lost 1, s/rate 95.55% , profit £19.82
Total trades to date on this system end of may - 76 trades , won 53, lost 23, s/rate 70% , profit to date £21.93System 6 ( Lay the underdog inplay if they take the lead) new one
Trades Trades 13, Won 11 , lost 2 , s/rate 85%, Profit £19.11Will update June once i have loaded all the results
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@stuart-capstick said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Change the W/L to Y or N, instead of 1 and 0
Profit column
=IF(O8="Y",0.98,-(n8-1))Then Cum profit
in cell Q8, type =P8
in cell Q9, type =Q8+P9Thanks Stuart will give it a try shortly really appreciate mate
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Change the W/L to Y or N, instead of 1 and 0
Profit column
=IF(O8="Y",0.98,-(n8-1))Then Cum profit
in cell Q8, type =P8
in cell Q9, type =Q8+P9 -
Evening all , can anyone help please. I have been trying to update my results spreadsheet, and in the cumulative totals it isn't adding to the totals . I have obviously done something wrong with very basic it skills havn't got a clue lol. Tried looking on Utube but can't find anything that can help.
If you look on my signature hopefully someone will see straight away what i have done ( not sure why but columns 1515 and 1516 seem smaller than the other columns could this be the problem if so is this easy to resolve? -
Morning all. Feel nice and refreshed after a long weekend in North/Mid Wales just what i needed lovely fresh air and a slow way of life to recharge my batteries the weather was superb which was great.
I have to be honest with myself and everyone recently i have let outside sources take control of my mindset and ended up gambling away on horses and greyhounds and lost a lot of money. From now on NO MORE HORSES OR GREYHOUNDS!!!!!
I am off today from work , just got to pop to the bank but i have the rest of the day to update my spreadsheet of results on the football strategies which i am way behind on.
I have a couple of days left of May to include which i will update on this blog later and then i will carry on updating results for June hopefully in time for the start of July where i can start fresh. I know a couple of strategies are failing which need to be deleted or certainly looked at , and others i think can be be made decent profitable systems with a tweak or two.
I am going to spend much more time on the forum from now on as the community is so good and helpful.
i will update the May results later on today just off into town laters all -
@darri said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard Its not to do with your filters or ability to pick good games. We all have losses. With something with only three outcomes there is a good chance that outcome could be overly in favour one week and not the next. So we could see an above average amount of draw one weekend. If you just have one ltd strat it will be an acceptable loss. If you have more than one ltd strat, im not talking about overlapping games im talking about all the ltds in all the games your then compounding that loss and as a result your bank will have a much bigger impact to that above average week of draws. Bigger hit to bank. What me and stuart are advising is diversifying markets and strategies. So say we have a pre match ltd and SHG strats. One week we have an above average amount of scored draws. That means that yes your ltd took a hit but your SHG will have still been normal. This gets compounded for the better the more variety you have. However dont just add willy nilly, make sure they are good variations and high quality strats. For this example id probably choose over time with data between your own version and stuarts.
I see , the 3rd ltd strategy was an inplay strategy entering at half time if 0-0 or 1-1 and odds below 3.0 , perhaps i could somehow adapt this into a different type of strategy so i don't have 3 ltd's maybe a overs market instead , have to try to find a different system then for this then thanks
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@eamonn-hogan said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
what is the ltd strategy you are using James out of curiousity?
HI Eammon, here is my filter mate
Overall Matches played 10 or greater
Home matches played 5 or greater
Away matches played 5 or greater
Overall drew - less/equal to 6
Home Team drew- less than equal to 5
Away team drew- Less than equal to 5
Overall drew percentage - less than/equal to 20%
Away drew percentage - less than/equal to 20%
Home Drew Percentage - less than/equal to 20%
Betfair draw odds - less than 5.0
I also check the h2h fulltime results between the two sides (last 5 matches) and max of 1 match has been a draw -
@stuart-capstick Ok thanks Stuart will take that into account then, cheers on the mend now looking forward to the gym next month been off since last March
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what is the ltd strategy you are using James out of curiousity?
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@james-everard Its not to do with your filters or ability to pick good games. We all have losses. With something with only three outcomes there is a good chance that outcome could be overly in favour one week and not the next. So we could see an above average amount of draw one weekend. If you just have one ltd strat it will be an acceptable loss. If you have more than one ltd strat, im not talking about overlapping games im talking about all the ltds in all the games your then compounding that loss and as a result your bank will have a much bigger impact to that above average week of draws. Bigger hit to bank. What me and stuart are advising is diversifying markets and strategies. So say we have a pre match ltd and SHG strats. One week we have an above average amount of scored draws. That means that yes your ltd took a hit but your SHG will have still been normal. This gets compounded for the better the more variety you have. However dont just add willy nilly, make sure they are good variations and high quality strats. For this example id probably choose over time with data between your own version and stuarts.
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Glad you getting better mate
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@stuart-capstick said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
No, that's fine, James. What I meant was, if you have two LTDs and they overlap a great deal. Effectively, your losses are compounded far more than any winnings are in terms of the effect on your bank.
If you have two LTDs and they are hitting different games, or focussing on different factors, and they don't overlap, you'll still be hit by variance, but it would be far less of a hit.
SPOT ON, kind of what we both meant worded better
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No, that's fine, James. What I meant was, if you have two LTDs and they overlap a great deal. Effectively, your losses are compounded far more than any winnings are in terms of the effect on your bank.
If you have two LTDs and they are hitting different games, or focussing on different factors, and they don't overlap, you'll still be hit by variance, but it would be far less of a hit.
Glad to hear you are OK.
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@stuart-capstick said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Darri makes a good point about diversification. I had about 5 profitable LTD strategies but all it takes is an odd weekend and you can lose a hefty chunk. I now only use those that are looking at different variables, e.g one or two on price, one on home form, one on away form etc. I tend to find fewer overlapping games that way
Far better to combine LTD with an under/over or lay home/away. Yes, they may clash, but logically if one goes awry, the other compensates. In other words, if there are several draws, it means any lay home strategy has won.
Hi mate my own set and forget ltd strangely rarely picks up the same matches as your lists do , will have a think about if i can adapt mine into another strategy but has been profitable the 3 months recording so far
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@stuart-capstick said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
If you are following "my" LTD, it's better to lay the night before. More often than not, you can lay below the offered price and get matched.
Yes mate , one of the ltd is yours which from now on will place the night before from now on
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@martin-futter said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard hope you are ok mate, what happened?
Very accident prone mate done my ankle in ligament damage thought it was broken at the time on the mend now though looking forward to getting back the gym
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Darri makes a good point about diversification. I had about 5 profitable LTD strategies but all it takes is an odd weekend and you can lose a hefty chunk. I now only use those that are looking at different variables, e.g one or two on price, one on home form, one on away form etc. I tend to find fewer overlapping games that way
Far better to combine LTD with an under/over or lay home/away. Yes, they may clash, but logically if one goes awry, the other compensates. In other words, if there are several draws, it means any lay home strategy has won.
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I tend to have a few overlapping games on the strategies I run. I only trade them on one strategy. Yes, I may miss out on extra profit, but, less is more...
The other thing is, I hope you are OK, James.
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If you are following "my" LTD, it's better to lay the night before. More often than not, you can lay below the offered price and get matched.
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@james-everard hope you are ok mate, what happened?
