MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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Evening all , can anyone help please. I have been trying to update my results spreadsheet, and in the cumulative totals it isn't adding to the totals . I have obviously done something wrong with very basic it skills havn't got a clue lol. Tried looking on Utube but can't find anything that can help.
If you look on my signature hopefully someone will see straight away what i have done ( not sure why but columns 1515 and 1516 seem smaller than the other columns could this be the problem if so is this easy to resolve? -
Morning all. Feel nice and refreshed after a long weekend in North/Mid Wales just what i needed lovely fresh air and a slow way of life to recharge my batteries the weather was superb which was great.
I have to be honest with myself and everyone recently i have let outside sources take control of my mindset and ended up gambling away on horses and greyhounds and lost a lot of money. From now on NO MORE HORSES OR GREYHOUNDS!!!!!
I am off today from work , just got to pop to the bank but i have the rest of the day to update my spreadsheet of results on the football strategies which i am way behind on.
I have a couple of days left of May to include which i will update on this blog later and then i will carry on updating results for June hopefully in time for the start of July where i can start fresh. I know a couple of strategies are failing which need to be deleted or certainly looked at , and others i think can be be made decent profitable systems with a tweak or two.
I am going to spend much more time on the forum from now on as the community is so good and helpful.
i will update the May results later on today just off into town laters all -
@darri said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard Its not to do with your filters or ability to pick good games. We all have losses. With something with only three outcomes there is a good chance that outcome could be overly in favour one week and not the next. So we could see an above average amount of draw one weekend. If you just have one ltd strat it will be an acceptable loss. If you have more than one ltd strat, im not talking about overlapping games im talking about all the ltds in all the games your then compounding that loss and as a result your bank will have a much bigger impact to that above average week of draws. Bigger hit to bank. What me and stuart are advising is diversifying markets and strategies. So say we have a pre match ltd and SHG strats. One week we have an above average amount of scored draws. That means that yes your ltd took a hit but your SHG will have still been normal. This gets compounded for the better the more variety you have. However dont just add willy nilly, make sure they are good variations and high quality strats. For this example id probably choose over time with data between your own version and stuarts.
I see , the 3rd ltd strategy was an inplay strategy entering at half time if 0-0 or 1-1 and odds below 3.0 , perhaps i could somehow adapt this into a different type of strategy so i don't have 3 ltd's maybe a overs market instead , have to try to find a different system then for this then thanks
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@eamonn-hogan said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
what is the ltd strategy you are using James out of curiousity?
HI Eammon, here is my filter mate
Overall Matches played 10 or greater
Home matches played 5 or greater
Away matches played 5 or greater
Overall drew - less/equal to 6
Home Team drew- less than equal to 5
Away team drew- Less than equal to 5
Overall drew percentage - less than/equal to 20%
Away drew percentage - less than/equal to 20%
Home Drew Percentage - less than/equal to 20%
Betfair draw odds - less than 5.0
I also check the h2h fulltime results between the two sides (last 5 matches) and max of 1 match has been a draw -
@stuart-capstick Ok thanks Stuart will take that into account then, cheers on the mend now looking forward to the gym next month been off since last March
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what is the ltd strategy you are using James out of curiousity?
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@james-everard Its not to do with your filters or ability to pick good games. We all have losses. With something with only three outcomes there is a good chance that outcome could be overly in favour one week and not the next. So we could see an above average amount of draw one weekend. If you just have one ltd strat it will be an acceptable loss. If you have more than one ltd strat, im not talking about overlapping games im talking about all the ltds in all the games your then compounding that loss and as a result your bank will have a much bigger impact to that above average week of draws. Bigger hit to bank. What me and stuart are advising is diversifying markets and strategies. So say we have a pre match ltd and SHG strats. One week we have an above average amount of scored draws. That means that yes your ltd took a hit but your SHG will have still been normal. This gets compounded for the better the more variety you have. However dont just add willy nilly, make sure they are good variations and high quality strats. For this example id probably choose over time with data between your own version and stuarts.
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Glad you getting better mate
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@stuart-capstick said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
No, that's fine, James. What I meant was, if you have two LTDs and they overlap a great deal. Effectively, your losses are compounded far more than any winnings are in terms of the effect on your bank.
If you have two LTDs and they are hitting different games, or focussing on different factors, and they don't overlap, you'll still be hit by variance, but it would be far less of a hit.
SPOT ON, kind of what we both meant worded better
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No, that's fine, James. What I meant was, if you have two LTDs and they overlap a great deal. Effectively, your losses are compounded far more than any winnings are in terms of the effect on your bank.
If you have two LTDs and they are hitting different games, or focussing on different factors, and they don't overlap, you'll still be hit by variance, but it would be far less of a hit.
Glad to hear you are OK.
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@stuart-capstick said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Darri makes a good point about diversification. I had about 5 profitable LTD strategies but all it takes is an odd weekend and you can lose a hefty chunk. I now only use those that are looking at different variables, e.g one or two on price, one on home form, one on away form etc. I tend to find fewer overlapping games that way
Far better to combine LTD with an under/over or lay home/away. Yes, they may clash, but logically if one goes awry, the other compensates. In other words, if there are several draws, it means any lay home strategy has won.
Hi mate my own set and forget ltd strangely rarely picks up the same matches as your lists do , will have a think about if i can adapt mine into another strategy but has been profitable the 3 months recording so far
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@stuart-capstick said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
If you are following "my" LTD, it's better to lay the night before. More often than not, you can lay below the offered price and get matched.
Yes mate , one of the ltd is yours which from now on will place the night before from now on
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@martin-futter said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard hope you are ok mate, what happened?
Very accident prone mate done my ankle in ligament damage thought it was broken at the time on the mend now though looking forward to getting back the gym
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Darri makes a good point about diversification. I had about 5 profitable LTD strategies but all it takes is an odd weekend and you can lose a hefty chunk. I now only use those that are looking at different variables, e.g one or two on price, one on home form, one on away form etc. I tend to find fewer overlapping games that way
Far better to combine LTD with an under/over or lay home/away. Yes, they may clash, but logically if one goes awry, the other compensates. In other words, if there are several draws, it means any lay home strategy has won.
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I tend to have a few overlapping games on the strategies I run. I only trade them on one strategy. Yes, I may miss out on extra profit, but, less is more...
The other thing is, I hope you are OK, James.
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If you are following "my" LTD, it's better to lay the night before. More often than not, you can lay below the offered price and get matched.
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@james-everard hope you are ok mate, what happened?
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Thanks guys for your replies. I had an accident a few weeks back so not mobile which has meant my weekends and evenings i have spent a lot of time trading , like you say far too much trading. I will hopefully will be more mobile by June and then trading will not be taking a lot less of my time.
I will from now on not try to get that extra tick as like you say it won't pay off long term.
The max liability stakes on each trade is £2 so my bank never takes a huge loss, the ltd systems will never include the same teams so not compounding the potential losses.
Catch up soon off to bed now early start with work thanks again -
@james-everard Am i right here in thinking you have done 689 trades over all 5 strategies in april, thats an average of 22 trades a day?! If so, thats honestly far too much. Id expect your not nearly as efficient with these as you could be. The thing is i get why your wanting to be on more. We have an edge we want to ride it. But starting out in trading id not recommend it. Yes potentially when your well into this and can spot opportunities almost robotically but not when still learning.
Firstly why are you starting with 5 strategies, i can imagine the outlay of your bank here could be quite large? Secondly 3 of them on the same market is risk. All it would take is a couple of weekends with a large amount of draws and all 3 would be hitting your bank hard regardless of staking. There isnt really any diversification here which is the only reason people should have more than one strategy at this.
Taking one tick below a price is a common thing at first but its honestly tediously inefficient and worthless unless your actually getting on. For every game you get a tick gained are they amounting enough extra p/l to sacrifice the wins you have missed out on? Just stick to a range and if it is in that range get on it. If its value at the time then it doesnt matter for an extra tick.
I do worry about the FH dutch score market. Its viable now with min stakes but itll become almost meaningless as your bank improves. Best to just focus on the most liquid markets. I know why your doing it, but honestly keeping things simple will be way more productive.
As for everything else its good to see that your tracking these. It may look like iv taken a dig here but actually these are only recommendations or advice. Its good to see your tracking. Iv said this countless times it doesnt take long to build data, its easy building strategies. I can see countless of profitable ones on this forum. Its how we manage that. I echo eamonns post because i also said the exact same thing to him. Its scary identical. The reason is because we all do it like this to start and then find out along the way. Can only offer advice to try get you away from this mindset and into a less is more one. Its counter intuitive to think like that but another way of putting it like lee did is less, but better trades
However its fantastic to see you back at this, building data that will be used in future and keeping in line with staking and discipline. The rest of what i put is upto you to decide if its needed. Just be careful.
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Glad to see you are keeping the discipline with the staking. That seems like an awful lot of trades though. Im no expert mate but I was doing 3/4 strategies for a while and I found it very time consuming. Dont get too bogged down with it. It can certainly affect the head.
Why are you missing out on a lot of Stuarts LTD by laying one tick lower? Why not either have a set range you use or failing that just take the price on offer? Going one tick lower is not much of a profit and it would annoy you missing out on so many. I only go for 3.5-4.1. Thats my range.Glad to see the FH LTD is working for you. I had a bit of success with it but gave it up as the liquidity is not great on most matches and going forward "if" "when" I am staking bigger amounts the strategy would not work. Hope it works for you to build up a bank.
Best of luck mate
