Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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So with Breidablik short odds lay losing @ 1.17 I finish on just under 1pt green and that at least stops the bleeding. Time to cauterise the wound tomorrow and let it scab over haha!
In short for the rest, a H2 goals win in Israel and Egypt adds to the data although no money on those as want to gather way more data before I dip my feet back in.
Lay of Jiangsu Suning, Kopavogur gave the green and lay of Breidablik took a tiny sample of that green back.
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Next, on the Costa Rican league which I had recently expressed doubts on. Saprissa down 0-1 after 5, 0-2 after 6......it just got worse and they were thrased 0-4 in the end. Firstly I'm glad to say it confirms my doubts as much as 2 heavy losses could in a short space of time. It would take a while to get those both back. Also, it was at 3am so lucky I was in bed haha!!
The next thing to say is that maybe Costa Rica isn't a total no go zone for laying winning teams. The strat I've just started live testing brought up Saprissa BUT I had already said it would be one best left alone as away team is just as likely to win from taking the lead as they are to concede.
In fact it's somethoing I was going to ask @Adam-Williams about. Whether a new rating could be added that measured how often a team is pulled back as opposed to giving a comeback rating. Could only improve the ELO I think.
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In a bit more detail now I'm off my phone. Firstly the ELO's. A nice short price lay in China this morning and a much larger price lay (due in no small part to the red away had received before taking the lead) which also came good. I just wanted a green day and mistakenly thought the 4.6 or thereabouts on offer was one of my newest filters so left it alone. Not the end of the world but another nice result for the data.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
I may as well put it out there now:
If any of the teams highlighted in green are to fall behind I would expect an equaliser. Not Saprissa and not Cobresal though as away team takes lead frequently and is more likely to go on and win from there than the others.
I'm just starting to live test this on account of shelving the H2 goals to track further.
Only one qualifier on these but it was a nice win. Laid Kopavogur @ evens and ended 1-1.
Aside from that Toronto gave a H2 goal win for the data and Guangzhou came back on the ELO's although conceded again and failed to get the double bubble.
Nevertheless it's a green day and almost a week since I've had one of those.
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I may as well put it out there now:
If any of the teams highlighted in green are to fall behind I would expect an equaliser. Not Saprissa and not Cobresal though as away team takes lead frequently and is more likely to go on and win from there than the others.
I'm just starting to live test this on account of shelving the H2 goals to track further.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Tomorrows ELO along with an overnighter if you can catch it:
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@john-hurst said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer whats going on with the dog lays mate, i know there has been quite a few selections of late but it seems like ages since i did one haha feel like we went through a patch of doing a couple a day at one point. Is it just me not keeping track or is it something else?
Nothing for a few days although I did forget to post today anyway. Kawasaki and Kashima both won without going behind.
Egyptian game later.
Egyptian one also qualifies under my trial.
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@john-hurst said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer whats going on with the dog lays mate, i know there has been quite a few selections of late but it seems like ages since i did one haha feel like we went through a patch of doing a couple a day at one point. Is it just me not keeping track or is it something else?
Nothing for a few days although I did forget to post today anyway. Kawasaki and Kashima both won without going behind.
Egyptian game later.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer whats going on with the dog lays mate, i know there has been quite a few selections of late but it seems like ages since i did one haha feel like we went through a patch of doing a couple a day at one point. Is it just me not keeping track or is it something else?
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Now I've shelved the H2 goals in favour of just tracking and collecting data I've been trying to see how the new lay winning team strat I'm working on can be improved. It will surprise nobody that as soon as I take out the realy early season games I can see an instant improvement. One thing I'm guilty of and I don't know if others can recognise this in themselves as well, is looking too much at individual trades. You think yes but if I remove said games I remove that winnign trade and it was a good one, rather than looking at the overall picture.
Anyway it's not the only thing I can see to tighten up on but it has definitely helped me me see the wood from the trees.
A bit of aftertiming on here but it's no good for me anyway as I took something else and got burnt.
Iwata was a lay around 1.33 and they drew 1-1.
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@john-hurst said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer china is a strange one now cause they are all (i think) in neutral venues.
YeH ah but they've been one of the better performing for a while. Just not feeling great about the H2 goals at the moment so collecting data. In the meantimeI'll continue with my ELO's as well as looking to develop another similar strat.
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@richard-latimer china is a strange one now cause they are all (i think) in neutral venues.
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Paraguay with the overnight let down and China with the morning one. I've really not done anything different with this since the beginning when it was flying. Only thing is leagues without data (not just new but leagues where I don'r know if they are profitable or not) and new combinations of statistics etc...
For now I'm going to have to go back to papertrading them as what's starting to happen is what happened most of last year. I was making consistent money on the ELO's and then losing that and a little bit more on poorly performing strats.
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ELO's:
Off to bed in a min so won't be doing anything overnight.
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Sept can craw behind a rock and die. Contributed to my own pain a little but there have been a few things out of my control and also just plain old variance. 9 days to turn it around and make small profit from medium red. H2 goals:
No data on Paraguay for this yet but I like the league in general. It has always been one of the better ones for me and usually sees a goal or two, often very late. Odds good as well.
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@john-hurst said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer you leaving the new season matches now? had a feeling you didnt used to.
No, I didn't but had to admit defeat there when I started looking into it. I wait 7 combined games into the season (not home/away specific, just enough time for both teams to get up to speed.
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@richard-latimer you leaving the new season matches now? had a feeling you didnt used to.
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Same again on the H2 goals. I'll leave the unprofitable leagues well alone but continue to track.
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Sorry for the lateness but problems with stats have hampered me. Not all these are good. Some in leagues I'm only tracking and some in newly started leagues. You can check individual country results on current sheet as well as old which is at the back.
If the fixture has a combined amount of fixtures 6 or less (not home/away specific) then I'll leave it.
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Lots of potential H2 goals though where I've so far found early season form to make little or no difference:
