Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Flagging big time here but before I forget if Cerro Porteno go behind lay Sportivo.
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And here is my trial:
Rapid Buchareast is a duplicate of the ELO which I already laid and cashed out on @ 1-1.
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Fri ELO's:
Turkey, Austria and Netherlands all back in tomorrow after playing enough games for me.
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An overnighter I couldn't get to in the States but double bubble there.
Also some justification in advising to stay away from Rio Grande.
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Nothing on the ELO tomorrow other than a game in Kazak which I will be tracking but doing no more.
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After a successful trade on Oulu (it was an ELO but not been convinced by Finland and the fact I traded it was more to do with the trial than the ELO) tomorrow sees a little more qualify as potentials. Would have been a few more but for some games not being listed (Israel) and others being too early in the season (LaLiga):
I will be in bed when Colorado Springs & Rio Grande kick of but wouldn't be doing those anyway at the moment. Colorado have been behind 7 times in 10 games and although they've pulled it back 6 times I'm not convinced by a team that has been behind as many times as they have. Sooner or later something has to give. Worth tracking these anyway. Rio Grande have pulled away 75% of the time when they do go ahead which is another number I'm not sure of when looking at laying home teams.
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An abysmal month comes to a close on a good note with over 1pt profit on the day.
Sept makes for miserable reading overall though with a 12pt loss. Need to start strong in Oct.
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And the ELO's:
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Come on for god's sake. One of you go behind haha!
Not single qualifier again. Checked the Bahrain game and they did go behind but it was for less than a minute so pointless recording that haha!
Think tomorrow is going to be another disapointing one for the trial with only 2 potentials:
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Come on for god's sake. One of you go behind haha!
Not single qualifier again. Checked the Bahrain game and they did go behind but it was for less than a minute so pointless recording that haha!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Come on for god's sake. One of you go behind haha!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Todays ELO:
Todays Live Testing for New Filter - Quick On The Draw
Left the Bahrain game in but I'm just tracking this one. Away team have never been ahead in the last 10 games according to stats so who knows how they'll react if they do finally take the lead.
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@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer that's good news! what's the strike rate and average lay odds?
I'm only about 50 selections in and not quite settled yet but between 65-70% if it continues. Not calculated average odds yet because I've only just started live testing but had plenty under evens. Iwata just before HT. I didn't get on but you could lay them for 1.35. I laid Necaxa the other night for 1.29 in the fh and ended 1-1. Penafiel yesterday @ 1.69 I think it was. Oh yeah and Botafogo in serie C were about 1.17, got carded and you could lay for 1.07. Ended 1-1.
so usually short odds on? won 65-70 is huge then!
Hopefully I'll have more to back this up soon enough but in general matches seem to have a much more even outlook on starting odds. There is some duplication to the ELO but not as much as I thought there would be.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer that's good news! what's the strike rate and average lay odds?
I'm only about 50 selections in and not quite settled yet but between 65-70% if it continues. Not calculated average odds yet because I've only just started live testing but had plenty under evens. Iwata just before HT. I didn't get on but you could lay them for 1.35. I laid Necaxa the other night for 1.29 in the fh and ended 1-1. Penafiel yesterday @ 1.69 I think it was. Oh yeah and Botafogo in serie C were about 1.17, got carded and you could lay for 1.07. Ended 1-1.
so usually short odds on? won 65-70 is huge then!
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Same on the trialled filter. Nothing until gone 16:00.
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Nothing early doors tomorrow. Fun doesn't start until 14:00 so I'll post the ELO's then.
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Belgium have been doing their best to stick it to me since I excluded them from the ELO's and and started tracking without money. 4 greens and a small loss!
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Well if Estoril don't concede 2 2nd half goals without reply that's it today. Only qualifier on the trial was an overnight winner in Columbia.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
And the trial:
I'm not at all sure about how I feel on HIFK. While they've come back 4/5 times, SJK haven't relinquished the lead once when they've taken it. I'll probably leave that one and track as after Sagan Tosu today I did notice they'd only relinquished the lead once in 4 times (25%) and I was already looking at that as an outlier thinking well none of my other fixtures have been that low for away team comebacks.
I was right to be wary of HIFK. Now down 2-0.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer that's good news! what's the strike rate and average lay odds?
I'm only about 50 selections in and not quite settled yet but between 65-70% if it continues. Not calculated average odds yet because I've only just started live testing but had plenty under evens. Iwata just before HT. I didn't get on but you could lay them for 1.35. I laid Necaxa the other night for 1.29 in the fh and ended 1-1. Penafiel yesterday @ 1.69 I think it was. Oh yeah and Botafogo in serie C were about 1.17, got carded and you could lay for 1.07. Ended 1-1.
I should clarify. I had well over selections but while I could tell there was something there I wasn't collecting enough data and was generating far too much each day which was real 50/50. I started tracking how often the opposing team would take the lead and let it slip as well as how often a team would make a comeback which was giving a much overall picture.
I still knew it wasn't any good without further amendments and decided to look at cutting out very early season games. Data instantly showed massive improvements 6 combined games in (3 weeks I guess).
After this weekend I was up to around 75 selections again but had already started highlighting areas I want happy with. As they continued to perform sub par I took the next step and it's down to around 45 selections in 16 days.
