The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.
I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.
I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median - it's all the same).
The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.
Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.
Fifth Position matched as low as 2.32. That's 3 potentials in the bag. Think I'll do this for a week and if it's profitable, start up properly next week.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@james-everard Just been watching that one mate had 1 matched at 1.81... You?
No must have just missed out , I am doing two split stake lays one at 1.73 and one at 1.37
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.
I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.
I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median - it's all the same).
The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.
Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@james-everard Just been watching that one mate had 1 matched at 1.81... You?
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@james-everard Well no result in that one!!!
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Going to ltf in the Newcastle 12.45. 12 runners 1mile Handicap 4 under 10.0 fav 5.5
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Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.
I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.
I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median - it's all the same).
The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Today's selections - again small stakes and looking for odds to shorten in-play.
12.45 - Jackstar (currently 13/2)
13.55 - Overwrite (currently 7/1)
17.25 - Multellie (currently 14/1) -
Figures on the left are star rating as awarded by winning warlock (they go 1-5). In the middle is the mean average inplay price for the horse excluding where they have won. Far right is the median average. Massive difference. I'm wondering if this wouldn't be possible as a one size fiits all kind of thing.
Median ave seems more sensible but then on some that's crazy low and the mean average might make more sense. I'm not sure. I will have another look tomorrow.
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Would have been one winner caught in these prices:
BSP was 30.0 and matched at 4.1 to lay.
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@richard-lillis
Hope you stayed with your interest in queen of kalahari...good shout
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Not sure how it compares overall but regular punters and traders starved of action.likely to be strong liquidity for foreseeable future.
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@cyril-reaney Have you done many 5f... Obviously that's outside of Martins parameters... There's a lot more money matched today against USA is that typical?
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@alan-steward well done.did similar myself in sprint races.I believe that all the races for next while will be utterly competitive and sprints 5 and 6 furlongs should be lucrative for Ltf.
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LTF at Newcastle
14:10 - 2 matched @ 1.81
15:55 - 2 matched @ 1.81 -
@cyril-reaney Excellent and thanks for your response
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Hi Alan
NH refers to National Hunt rules which is Jump racing.The National Hunt season will re commence in the U K in July. The season reaches a peak each year with big festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree and normally ends at Sandown in late April. Weights and distances differ from flat races quite a bit and big difference between summer jumping and from approximately Oct 1st.This is when the best N H horses start appearing.
Good luck -
@richard-lillis Hi Richard, I've noticed the abbreviation NH used before but it means? I suspect I'll get that stupid feeling when you explain lol.
Also what is your preferred strategy with horse trading?
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2nd Race clear favourite not in the top 2 and another very tight finish didn't trade the last one as the favourite was under evens though
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Now that winning warlock is back I wanted to start tracking an idea I mid lockdown idea I had about laying the rated horses on there for their average in-running price. No money down on this but should be fairly easy to track wiith timeform.
I've added 10% to each average so far but of course I can look and play around with these numbers as results come in.
That makes sense. Still, I'm sure everyone understands haha!
I just thought I'd take a quick look at the difference between mean ave price and median ave prices in case there are some big outliers and it makes a hell of a difference on the first. With that in mind I'll track both. Median ave for Geizy Teizy is 2.98 or 3.10 when I add 10% to that.
Make that 3.85. Teething troubles.
