The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[Richard Latimer]

@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer

Richard:

Can you quickly summarize what it is you are looking at here without reference to the specific website.

Would like to run some data through ProForm and see how it comes out.

Thanks

C

Ok. It is pretty difficult without referencing the website but essentially last 5 runs would have seen the horse in question perform way better than BSP in running but crucially having won no more than 1 of these.

I'm using a median average of the prices where horse didn't win (so between 4-5 prices) to find my price point. If that price point appears too low in terms of forecast and actual available odds I have taken away the highest price and averaged what remains out. Again, if the price is still too high in terms of what I'm seeing I will remove the next highest and average what remains (usually a straight average between 2 prices).

Median average seems better as removes the outliers.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer

Richard:

Can you quickly summarize what it is you are looking at here without reference to the specific website.

Would like to run some data through ProForm and see how it comes out.

Thanks

C

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.

I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.

I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median - it's all the same).

The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.

Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.

Fifth Position matched as low as 2.32. That's 3 potentials in the bag. Think I'll do this for a week and if it's profitable, start up properly next week.

Just That Lord didn't match there.

Admiralty not matched at the required price point either. Nothing until 16:50 now.

These are going really well so far.

In the 17:25 Qawamees matched at a low of 4.0. Price point was 5.4 so another win.

Final race comes to an end, the final horse matches at my price point and fails to win. A 2nd day success. More of the same tomorrow hopefully.

Full results below:

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.

I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.

I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median - it's all the same).

The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.

Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.

Fifth Position matched as low as 2.32. That's 3 potentials in the bag. Think I'll do this for a week and if it's profitable, start up properly next week.

Just That Lord didn't match there.

Admiralty not matched at the required price point either. Nothing until 16:50 now.

These are going really well so far.

In the 17:25 Qawamees matched at a low of 4.0. Price point was 5.4 so another win.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.

I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.

I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median - it's all the same).

The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.

Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.

Fifth Position matched as low as 2.32. That's 3 potentials in the bag. Think I'll do this for a week and if it's profitable, start up properly next week.

Just That Lord didn't match there.

Admiralty not matched at the required price point either. Nothing until 16:50 now.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.

I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.

I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median - it's all the same).

The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.

Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.

Fifth Position matched as low as 2.32. That's 3 potentials in the bag. Think I'll do this for a week and if it's profitable, start up properly next week.

Just That Lord didn't match there.

[Angus Macleod]

Anyone have any issues with the 1300 at Kempton? I had two matched at 1.81 but somehow Betfair had them registered at 1.58 and I am 100% sure I did everything correctly as when I went to the "Manual Bet" screen again, all the data was correct ready for the next race

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.

I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.

I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median - it's all the same).

The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.

Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.

Fifth Position matched as low as 2.32. That's 3 potentials in the bag. Think I'll do this for a week and if it's profitable, start up properly next week.

[james everard]

@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@james-everard Just been watching that one mate had 1 matched at 1.81... You?

No must have just missed out , I am doing two split stake lays one at 1.73 and one at 1.37

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.

I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.

I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median - it's all the same).

The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.

Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.

[A Former User]

@james-everard Just been watching that one mate had 1 matched at 1.81... You?

[james everard]

@james-everard Well no result in that one!!!

[james everard]

Going to ltf in the Newcastle 12.45. 12 runners 1mile Handicap 4 under 10.0 fav 5.5

[Richard Latimer]

Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.

I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.

I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median - it's all the same).

The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.

[A Former User]

Today's selections - again small stakes and looking for odds to shorten in-play.
12.45 - Jackstar (currently 13/2)
13.55 - Overwrite (currently 7/1)
17.25 - Multellie (currently 14/1)

[Richard Latimer]

Figures on the left are star rating as awarded by winning warlock (they go 1-5). In the middle is the mean average inplay price for the horse excluding where they have won. Far right is the median average. Massive difference. I'm wondering if this wouldn't be possible as a one size fiits all kind of thing.

Median ave seems more sensible but then on some that's crazy low and the mean average might make more sense. I'm not sure. I will have another look tomorrow.

[Richard Latimer]

Would have been one winner caught in these prices:

BSP was 30.0 and matched at 4.1 to lay.

[A Former User]

@richard-lillis
Hope you stayed with your interest in queen of kalahari...good shout

[A Former User]

Not sure how it compares overall but regular punters and traders starved of action.likely to be strong liquidity for foreseeable future.

[A Former User]

@cyril-reaney Have you done many 5f... Obviously that's outside of Martins parameters... There's a lot more money matched today against USA is that typical?