The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@charles-cartwright I heard that 1.01 was profitable did you find this when looking at the data?
Martin:
In theory yes because that is actually the only price point where the frequency exceeds the value required to turn a profit. Happens about 1.5-1.8% of all flat races and of course you only need a frequency of better than 1 in 100 to be profitable. The problem is going to be getting your bet matched in the scrum that goes on at that low of a price point where in most races there is a ton of money dumped into the market pre-race at very low prices on fancied horses just because of the positive arithmetic. So if you are only going in a couple of quid then it is quite likely you wont get matched, the losing horse drifts out again and you get stuck laying only the winner.
I have never tried it myself but I am guessing that if you could mentally tolerate the minuscule strike-rate and have enough bankroll to get matched most if not all of the time then it is about as close to a sure thing as you can get in racing. I don't have either of those and so it is a hard pass for me.
C
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Hi guys I was thinking of doing the lay the field selection today but not done it yet and not sure how to do it. I just thought it was time to learn.
Is their a video for this to explain how to do it?
Is the selection today a good one? -
@charles-cartwright Hey Charles that's awesome I will delve into the data over the next few days, am busy today but should be able to have a quick look at what you've got below tonight
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Final thoughts on LTF
As I mentioned a while ago a scraped and then analyzed every turf flat race run in the UK and Ireland from 2010-2019 to try to find any consistent angle where the LTF strategy could turn a profit. Bottom line is I found none.
Having said that it may be that I missed something or that the data has value for someone else and so I am putting it up here for anyone else to look at and work on.
The spreadsheets are pretty easy to follow but here is a quick primer for anyone interested.
Basic metadata columns:
Date: Date of race in MM/DD/YY format.
Time: Scheduled time of race
Course: Racecourse. I did remove some of the very minor courses and any course where turf racing was discontinued before 2019.
Distance: In yards
Runners: Self explanatory
Class of race: 2 columns for class by letter and by number
Going: This is the actual going at the time of the raceBefair specific data:
FAV1-FAV5: BSP of the first five horses in the market
LIR1-LIR3: Low-in-running price of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers in the race (obviously LIR0 is 1.01 in every race).Any questions please let me know. If there are any fields that are typically present in the ProForm data that you want to see I can pull those into this database pretty easily but I can't think of any that would really help here. Since this is UK/IE racing there is no issue with liquidity obviously.
Cheers
C
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And I'm only doing simulation mode as well, forgot to point that one out
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@alan-steward Good point mate leave it for tonight not touched any others so nothing hardly lost. Probably be on here at some stage tomorrow laters
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@james-everard Doesn't look to be a lot of liquidity in that race meeting mate, I've added all races which meet the distance requirement i.e 6f to 1 mile and with my bot I changed market volume to £100... This will basically lay all races which match odds, distance & No. Runners... The first race only had 1 matched @ 1.81
Sorry and just shy of 36k matched pre off
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Well nil matched but I went in at 1.37 so not much lost
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@james-everard The 21.05pm race strategy looks like a ltf strategy although liquidity is low
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Two meetings this evening in the States. The Ruidoso Downs meet I will not be touching as not going inplay. Lone Star Park will post possible trade nearer to post
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@james-everard Am only LTF for now... I did look at dutching front of field to 85% of book but ROI wasn't worth the risk/reward... I have a LTF bot file if you want to try it?
Hi mate if you could send to me mate that would be good cheers. I fell foul on my dutching last night with two races on the bounce when an outsider won. That's when I decided to only dutch a max of 4 runners if any more than that (looking at the USA racing stats) look to have a chance I believe it to be a competitive race I then ltf
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@james-everard Am only LTF for now... I did look at dutching front of field to 85% of book but ROI wasn't worth the risk/reward... I have a LTF bot file if you want to try it?
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@alan-steward Yes mate with the dutching I have been backing with a stake selection rather than a target profit or minimum stake. What do you do if you are dutching?
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@james-everard You still using Bet Angel mate?
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@alan-steward I have been testing still , very early days . I am either laying the field at split stakes 1.37 and 1.73 or dutching some horses to win the race depending how competitive the race looks. Will let you know this evening mate my selections once the football is over today
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No matches for me in Tampa last night... Looked a night of Favs
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I believe the Tampa Bay season has now come to an end in the States. But it appears two new meetings are now on Betfair. The Ruidoso Downs and Lone Star Park( the later had some meetings yesterday). Do Betfair not have the rights for some of the races stateside ie Gulfstream?
Good news this side of the pond It seems next Monday racing starts in the Uk again and a well later in Ireland -
Tonight's LTF
18:08 USA Tampa Bay Downs - 1 matched at 1.81
20:11 USA Tampa Bay Downs - 1 matched at 1.81 -
@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@james-everard Dutching "Front of Field" or do you mean LTF?
No mate just dutching (backing) around 4-5 runners 2mins before the off and putting in the back bet 2 ticks higher and tick keep inplay. Only one race didn't match up inplay and it went on to win, but all the other trades matched and the dutch trade won ( none of the horses i didn't dutch went onto win the race). Very early days and i hope i didn't hear that the USA racing is coming to the end of the season?
