The road to full time
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@darri great post mate, I’ve been quiet on here lately and haven’t been on the forum or even looking at it much but what I’ve learned from this community has been priceless, it takes a long time to get that discipline and tunnel vision but it comes and when it does everything changes. One thing I thought I’d never be able to do was be emotionless with regards to a winning or losing trade and that has now come, my mrs has no idea now whether I’m up or down as my mood stays the same regardless. One thing I’d say to anybody just starting their journey is learn to look at the bigger picture , a winning day or losing day means very little in the grand scheme of things it’s the long term that matters. Would always recommend BTC to anybody who is starting out as it’s finding this and absorbing the good trader’s advice is what has made me think I can finally achieve my goal of going full time. Hats off to anybody who takes the time to do a blog as it helps enormously
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Isnt it funny how everything around trading and even the tools like btc provide its still about personal preference
some learn from posting cause they cant soak the info from reading (me), yet other are the opposite and gain so much from others posts. This right here is why trading is such a good growing industry to be in. Find your circle of competence and ride with it. Its one of those im a celebrity get me out of here moments when they say iv found myself and what my purpose is what makes you tick and comfortable. I wish trading was just hey come do this and youll make money. Anyway enough posts and hippie like posts from me today, i swear ever since i got audible and listening to books while i trade and edit videos turned me into this weirdo 
once the weather is back and pubs/nights out/cricket are buzzing ill go back to old me -
@steve-sandell no one will follow at the start, but like iv said it not for that. That stage is all about learning. You dont need to be posting to learn on here. Sometimes i get requests on my sheets from members iv never seen on the forum. Sometimes people can quickly click onto whats needed from reading. For me i cant. I needed to be active and knowing what iv done wrong. Posting was part of that for me. Remember i was once a new member, nobody knew me or what i was trading/going to trade. If your posting and asking questions your getting for me the real value of this site. Do i enjoy posting winners of course, it does give me a buzz. Now people know im a decent enough trader i know some will follow but by this stage it doesnt matter because i know my strategy is well developed. Everyone from the start who saw those original posts can see the changes i made. Im quite happy sometimes to be a bit boastful of the journey because i was quite transparent with my intentions of this blog and the journey is for everyone to see. I could quite easily have fallen away. Also this forum doesnt need to be something you active in. You dont need to be posting. Its just for me personally thats how im gaining value from it. Others are far better at soaking info in without having to be asking the questions so to speak. Glad your thinking about posting mate and ill look forward to seeing your posts.
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You have given me food for thought about doing a blog / posting my trades. Been quiet on here since i joined, was just sorting out my trading which has been a long road. Hopefully now in a position to start sharing my trades
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I made a cup of tea before i started writing that, its now cold so please accept this as an apology for yet another big post
honestly hand on heart thought it would be a paragraph long 
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Speaking to a mate who he turns 30 this year. The nostalgia moments kicked in. Talking about nights out, women and what we were like before. I think i grew up madly in love with sports so i was always competitive. But that even he has seen a change in what im like since iv moved back to aberdeen. This is when it relates to trading. When i first started on here i was 25. I had that age stigma of your too young to know. There are a lot of smart heads on here how am i going to COMPETE. See that thinking got me wanting to be the one posting the winning trade, posting the most points gained etc. I see this a lot especially in the people who are on the verge of making this truly work for them, they see it works for them and posting about it why cant that person understand the same thing etc. I dont think its ever been about age. Id consider myself pretty switched on when it comes to money and business. Doesnt mean im a multi millionaire but just means im making good strides to getting that independence i want/envisage. I know and accept that will take several years.
Now with the people who are at that stage, please take a step back and really understand what this forum/community is about. Its not about posting the winning trade, not about posting the most green/points, its not about gaining rep on this forum, had a few members chats about this so im not making it up, some people do want to be known on here as a good trader. Its about you using the forum as a tool to beat the markets. Sometimes i see that when someone maybe leaves a hole in a post or doesnt cover it well enough they dont mind having their say. I have seen it on my blog over the years. If iv maybe said something that is a bit vague people like to be quick to correct the full timer. WHY? Im not posting something i know little about im posting cause i know its whats worked for me. Stop trying to compete with everyone. Take that competitive nature that we all have (typically we like sports which is where we get it from) instead get behind everyone. There has been a few times people like to have a dig at me and keith for our lcs/shg picks. Calling us gamblers etc. Later we find out they had a hint of jealousy. Stop that way of thinking. Stop competing with members or comparing yourself against someone with years of doing this. Iv been no angel in doing exactly this, but im trying to help people see that this stage can be avoided. You can look around the forum anytime someone needs help ill always be there. Its not about me winning and me helping wont ruin my edge on the market. Anyone online saying that if they shared their magic system then their edge would be destroyed clearly doesnt have a very big edge on the market. Look around at this forum everything is shared.
In the last 3 years iv matured and yeah iv been defensive of that age thing because i was here to prove to myself i could do it. Remember the title isnt betfair forum its got community in there too. Its not you against betfair its btc against betfair. Use this tool we have been given to soak up all the info for you to then tackle trading. Its not about you being the one who makes everyone money or you who makes the most money. Dont be envious of those who succeed, ask them how they are succeeding. Do i think this is from me being successful, probably, its probably a bit annoying if your still learning seeing someone doing well. But its a stage we have all been at. Forget the reputation, forget being right, instead be clever and smart. Soak everything up and use it against the markets. If you see someone doing well it doesnt matter to you financially but very little people survive at this so give them support maybe even see if you can make a tweak. Social media has given us this whole envious nature. Their life looks so much better etc. Forget that. In a roundabout way all that really matters is you and what impact betfair can have on your finances and life. Only be competitive on there not btc. I see stuarts ltd, alans posts, keiths posts, johns horses. But im not doing any of those trades. We can see that they are making bank. Doesnt mean ill then just wait for every post they make. Instead learn from it, why are they doing that, can it be improved. Dont think about competing. Still think even the better traders sometimes can be defensive even i can be like that, but its really not needed.
Just got me thinking about this last night and thought id write something down. 3 years doesnt seem like a lot and they have flown by but iv learnt and soaked up so much info. If you read this blog from start (not advised too much ramblings like this) but you can hopefully have seen that progression. I think anyone can do the same and i want everyone to have the same outlook too. Stop listening to the people who say this is impossible. This blog doesnt help me as much anymore but i keep it going cause it gives me routine and helps prove to people that you can do this full time/build a bank.
Remember this is always been about being a resource for the individual to then make the needed changes to make profit. However big or small. Dont worry what others think, yes some of the newer members might think yeah not a good trader but the people who have been on here the longest know its a stage we have all been at. I setup this blog way before i was doing this well. The mistakes are laughable. Instead of posting winning trades why not start a blog? Then you can just do updates and allows for feedback. Remember we are on here paying for this resource sponge all the value out of it as much as you can. There are probably some of the best traders around on here, we dont get to know that info from betfair but id say that very few other pros match what we do on here. Dont treat this as a hotbed of boys/girls waiting to laugh at all your mistakes. Its not a social media tool to be famous. Its a tool for you the individual to make something from it and help you financially.
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@ryan-carruthers Tuchel has a bit of something about him that will do well in the prem. Once fans get back in they will love him. Their defence is solid all they have been needing is a striker bagging goals, werners first season so maybe now he can settle and now get going. He will improve every single one of those youngsters. Hopefully market predicts the Manchester favs and prices Chelsea poorly cause id be jumping on that too.
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Aguero missing that pen probably cost us the chelsea top 4 lay. Got to say ever since that first lay chelsea kicked on and look tidy outfit, could have cashed out after brighton but hindsight, could be a big season from them next year. Lets see if west ham can sneak in to it and at least take away some liability. I might look to see if there is a trade between leicester, west ham and liverpool after this round of games. Hopefully some have managed to get on that shg i posted in this game to help ease the annoyance
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Now iv relaxed a bit on late goals since, but this still stands up to what i do when looking at goals between 65-75 mins. Its just im adapting my trading as i go on to fully match what i want. Now what im doing is typically looking at HT for inplay stats. If its busy ill enter a stake. If not ill wait till 65-75 mins in and see if a late goal is likely. The stats software has told me this game has on historic form been a good candidate for a SHG at some stage. If i enter at HT ill use a decent sized stake, then if same score as HT using below guides ill assess if i add to this position. Essentially despite me not being a big advocate for a split i am indeed using a split
im just being flexible on when/if to use it. The thing is my trading isnt as greedy or profit hungry anymore so a split stake approach works here and im just way more flexible with trading. Something even 14 months ago when i went full time i wasnt. Always adapting and improving in terms of trading and managing myself.So for example sometimes ill now only do HT-50 min SHGs. Other times ill just do Late goals. But sometimes when a game matches both ill combine them. Its very fluid but what you have to remember is this is my circle of competence and SHGs are what iv worked on for years now. Dont think youll be doing the same thing in 1-2 years time. But its all about building that knowledge and scaling the bank ideally along the way. Hope these guides help those to see why my SHG/Late picks tend to do better than the norm.
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Here is another example of maybe a game more familiar to people. Hope this helps show the process id go through for a game. It takes longer to write than it does to actually do. It sounds like it takes ages for just one trade but its a matter of minutes to research (btc filters) check top players and then inplay is just a quick skim.
@darri said in The road to full time:
Trade Breakdown: West brom vs Tottenham
Pre match selection:
West brom last 3 home games have given clues to the rest of season already. 0-0 against burnley, but when up against potential top 6 teams they have conceded 3 goals both against chelsea and leicester.
Spurs on the other hand came into this winning all 3 away games. Beating burnley, man utd and southampton.
Form tells us Spurs are in form and west brom have stuttered there way into the season so far.
When it comes to these matchups i tend to focus heavily on the team i expect to score. So for this ill now turn and have a look at the key players for spurs.Key players research:
I chose this game because it will resonate with many traders or football fans. But really you should be finding out this knowledge with any size of team be it a prem side or a swedish side. The same principles matter.
Spurs have scored, 18 goals this season before the match. Kane scoring 6 and 8 assists (77% contribution to all team goals) Son has scored 8 and 2 assists (55% of all team goals). Now obviously some of the goals between them will have been assisting the other. But when you then look at the rest of team the nearest goal contributor is Aurier with 1 goal 1 assist (11%). As you can see without these 2 in the team the pre match stats we all looked at wouldnt work out.
People who are using pre match stats to judge if a game should be traded must be factoring in key players and who is contributing most to them, otherwise it becomes inaccurate data.The plan:
This game wasnt filtered to me, but if it was its the exact same process. Now we write down somewhere our plan for the game. Is it a LCS, FHG, ov 2.5, comeback etc.
For me im looking at this game for a late goal. So for this to work i need the scores to be in favour of spurs needing to get a goal. So 0-0/1-0/1-1/2-1. For me i dont typically go anymore than that as those games are unpredictable and performing above average already.
I need Kane and Son to be playing but given their individual contribution either would be enough.
I then need inplay to be in favour of spurs dominating.
Ill watch the match from half time. If im seeing spurs attacking and looking lively then it supports all the points above so i would then inplay judge if price is value before placing.Inplay:
Personal preference here, i find im able to judge trades best when im watching games and with late goal trades i only watch the 2nd half, couldnt care less what happened in the first with stats or chances etc. However i know some people get over invested when watching the match and might just be trigger happy with small chances, just using inplay stats would be your better option if that was your case.
What im looking for here is expected goals chances/clear cut chances. Not long range efforts or tight angle shots. Efforts when a defender has had to block, keeper to save, hit woodwork or had a shot within the V of the goal.Here is the inplay stats at HT:
Not looking like a game to get involved with. But like i said i dont care what happened 1st half chances wise. Spurs not creating anything.
Here is what it looks after the 2nd half:
Massive difference. We can see spurs really upped it in the 2nd half and dominated.
Trade or No trade?
So all things pointed to spurs getting in the game. Key players both on the pitch. Spurs looked more likely to score backing up our pre match research. Chances inplay were good, with a good few efforts id have expected kane and co to have troubled keeper with.
Now THE biggest part, the price. We have outlined above why we now like this as a trade. But for us to win long term we need to add price. Price is king! Now typically with the big teams you have poor value price all the way through. However with some matches you can spot a good price so never rule it out.
I managed to get 1.75 to back ov0.5 on 70 mins, typically this will be the average price for my trades so given i have a strong fav to score this presents value to me. Basically when i look at a price calculate that into a % chance. Did i think there would be a 60%(profit after commission at this ratio) that a goal was coming, given all the points above i did. If say kane or son had come off in that time i would not have entered. Instead spurs lumped on two more attacking players to aid the threat. Factor the price in with my strike rate of my overall trades this was a good price.
So the LCS/Back next goal is matched. For most this is when you sit back and wait for a goal. For me with it being 0-0 i kept looking as i trade the LTD. For this its just looking to see if spurs consistently attack and look even more likely to score than they did 5-10 mins before when i placed the first trade.Result:
Kane (key player research) scorred in the 87th min to win on both the LCS and LTD.
When you look at all of this and think its overwhelming. Its not. It takes me 5 mins to do this research. Even less if its a game from a filter. Do this for every game and youll start to score off those games that dont fit this criteria. Zoning in on the quality picks. Now your still not going to win every game but as traders we are looking to limit risk. By doing these steps we go from a punt to a well thought out trade/value bet.I hope this shows how i go from a trade on paper to an actual trade. There are plenty videos of people talking about each section which makes people think its harder and longer to do than normal but its really just 5-10 mins of sitting down before a game. Any questions just ask
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@Daniel-Cooper this explains what i spoke about on your thread mate.
Ill show 2 examples of games and how my thought process is when trading them. One will be an ideal game like the one below the other will be a late goal as inplay dictates it wasnt lively at ht but was later. This is when you fit this to your own strat. If you entered at HT and the game has died get out for a fractional loss instead of taking a full hit. Typically with SHGs you could get out at say 60 mins for a small loss, then look again at 70 see if lively and maybe re enter at better price. Be flexible with your trading. For me because of stage im at its more set and forget in terms of entry if i like the game at time ill enter and just accept win/lose.
Example 1, busy game
Quick post to show why the rosenborg game was a cracking trade and is exactly the type of filter selection id go for.
Pre match stats:
Rosenborg needed a win to keep going for europe.
Rosenborg have scored a 2nd half goal in 5/5 home games (good form)
Between the teams mjondalen have only had 1 game under 0.5 and rosenborg only 3, massive % thereKey players:
holse
zachariassen (went on to score winner)Inplay:
Massive pressure from rosenborg to go onto win the game. One team battling at top places and one struggling near the bottom.
All key players on the pitch come 75 mins.
Scoreline is 0-0 so rosenborg have motivation to get the winner.Price:
at 74 mins the price was 1.85 and quickly jumped to 2.00. In a norwegian game with a heavy fav you cant get much better odds.Adding all this up we trade this game because it fits our plans. The individual game isnt important now that we have entered. The whole reason we trade every game on its merits is to help us decide if we are to enter. Once we trade it, we are then adding it to our log term list of results. If we keep trading games like this we will profit long term.
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@matt-wood Thanks mate, i live bang in the centre of town so deliveroo and dominoes are my temptations to try not overdo every month. With cricket back been working hard on the fitness, started an eating plan, trying to gain muscle and bulk. Slowly and surely its having its desired effect on my mental health meaning im not looking for other ways to satisfy boredom. Hope so too mate, just spent a tidy some on new gear
Yep just a good example of explaining why i think £10k is a good target and isnt over ambitious. I think most people are aiming for that bank size to then do this more permanently. Just showing it can be done just with small increments, not needing to press the panic button of a few trades more or one big trade etc.
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@darri Excellent straightforward explanation here Darri
Although I'm not sure the take away pizza near me provides mental health benefits, just physical health problems (they are really really bad)
Joking aside a good layout of the power of compounding a bank.
Fingers crossed you get on the cricket pitch this weekend
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I just wanted to show this table thats iv adapted on my sheets just to give a better understanding of how im gonna try turn £1k into £10k. This is just showing the targets we are aiming for and showing month by month if we do or dont reach them. Yes last month surpassed but i want people to look more at the football as the base to all this. Cricket will come in periods and will be rare throughout year.Remember iv been posting every inplay football trade for everyone to follow this. Sometimes i hear people say this just doesnt happen fast. We see people trying to sprint to that full time freedom. But there really is no need. What your looking at above is a bank builder from someone who its treating this passively until he hits £10k. I know 30% is a push and some months wont hit that. But this is just for me to aim for. If like iv advised before you look at the strategies on btc from them and members you would average 20% every month. That compared to the end target above would then be £5,159. Now lets say we stopped buying those dominoes and takeaways. If you could add that money back into trading, imagine the compounding of adding £40 a month to this. That would then = £5,991 so £832 more. Just by saving up for the next year that extra £832 is around 41 large dominoes pizzas. And all you did was cut out 2 ever month. Now obviously mental health etc is needed and these luxuries keep us going at times but im just showing the average person could be doing this. So there are better ways of building fast than just overstaking and overtrading. I dont recommend missing the treats it was just an example of how fast small changes can make.
So showing what my targets are so that you can see as i go along my reasons behind the madness. In future youll see similar targets. I have a withdrawal plan but will wait till im doing that to show. This whole snowball effect will start to make sense once actual numbers are on screen rather than me theorising.
Dont lose heart that your banks not rising enough, its a mind game at times, the small incremental rises your seeing now add up. Dont fall for it and over trade and over stake. Be patient and treat this as passively as you can. Dont just go i can afford to replace £100, that £100 kept could make a massive difference long term when compounded.
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Oh and iv decided ill be adding in posts showing what iv been investing in too. I plan to be able to show exactly how im going from a 28yr old towards being financially free before 40. I was gonna show what the video production is also making but lets keep this trading related. I recently withdrew my Ethereum position, hit its new all time high and for me thats made me more than enough. I had contemplated just leaving it but this thing is far too volatile. Ill now just wait for the dips. Ill not say how much iv made, but i will now in future.
Ill not be reinvesting it back into betfair (took out my old £20k bank for investing) instead ill save that for investing elsewhere. Im thinking of passively going about the crypto sphere and index funds/stocks i spot. As this betfair bank snowballs that will also aid the investing side too. Lets keep this simple and clear tho. I actually dont have any active investments other than betfair money. Currently my main income is from the video editing business that betfair has funded, so going forward this is a good stage to showcase in both sports trading and stocks/crypto trading.
Once things get rolling ill update the sheets to accommodate the additions as iv been wanting to do that anyway, have everything in one place. Ill do my own berkshire hathaway agm
my normal posts are long enough already -
Just had the first losing day in god knows how long. The run has been supported by cricket trades of course this last month. However first all football loss in ages. I still sometimes feel a sense of guilt when i have a losing day. I know im not doing this to be a tipster but i fully know some people will have traded based on me posting. Always a healthy reminder that I still have bad trades and bad days. Im no angel. But thats the sole reason i show every trade i do on the football and why i also show every result on my sheet for everyone to see. Not many guys at my stage are actually doing that and being so open. So please if you are on any of my losing days i will have plenty please always have a wee peak at results sheet just to make sure these do make profit long term. I know it sounds silly but i do feel guilt after losing days (not individual trades) not for me but for others. Transparency here is probably one of the best things i don on here i feel.
On a personal note im actually gutted there is no more ipl. Was part of the plans for reaching the £10k target. Some things are far bigger than sport and devastated to see whats happening over there. I have a lot of friends from cricket with family there and wish them well.
I still think ill reach the £10k target set. Hopefully once i add this ltd strategy iv been building it can cover the missing profits. Im waiting till the summer leagues to start posting it, with a set and forget strategy i dont want to be in a position where im deciding whether or not to be entering just defeats the purpose. I have still been tracking it with this end of season period and so far nothing has changed still gaining profits. Based on its records it would surpass my SHG/Lates in terms of profits and amount of games, currently is since tweaks 88 trades, strike rate of 89%, 50.14 points profit. Like iv said ill only be adding if it is a set and forget and also adds value to my trading (has to match what iv got already or better) will start posting them on here i think and save the inplay trades for the football thread easier for me to update after each day without scrolling through.
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Followed you
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LOL I never thought id see the day when i posted something, go check the market and influence price from a post
back now, must be someone having an active eye on offering prices in the market -
For those who are on the top 4 outright bet. Im laying chelsea this weekend @1.44. Chelsea play man city, if the liverpool vs united game is not rescheduled before then and it wont given united play Thursday night, that means city could win the league at the home. City also be righting the wrong from the cup defeat.
Liverpool play southampton at home, west ham are at home to everton, both of those games are after the chelsea game. So we could get a rather handsome swing here if all results go our way. Leicester play Newcastle on friday which obviously could also have an impact as thats their last "must win" game. This weekend has a lot of potential in deciding top 4.
Why am i doing this, because that price could be a nice swing trade this weekend. If chelsea lose and liverpool and leicester win ill remove the liability of this extra trade, means in long term less loss on chelsea. It wont affect the overall win of the original.
So lay of chelsea @1.44 for 2pts stake to win (not liability). This isnt with my new staking plan this is still inline with the original trades. Ill post as soon as there is any update about exactly what iv done at the weekend probably sat night if possible.
