The road to full time

[JON RIDING]

@darri

[Mark Maguire]

@darri Wow .. this is bloody brilliant .. thank you

[A Former User]

Another less detailed but same message of how i look for trades

@darri said in The road to full time:

Quick post to show why the rosenborg game was a cracking trade and is exactly the type of filter selection id go for.

Pre match stats:
Rosenborg needed a win to keep going for europe.
Rosenborg have scored a 2nd half goal in 5/5 home games (good form)
Between the teams mjondalen have only had 1 game under 0.5 and rosenborg only 3, massive % there

Key players:
holse
zachariassen (went on to score winner)

Inplay:

Massive pressure from rosenborg to go onto win the game. One team battling at top places and one struggling near the bottom.
All key players on the pitch come 75 mins.
Scoreline is 0-0 so rosenborg have motivation to get the winner.

Price:
at 74 mins the price was 1.85 and quickly jumped to 2.00. In a norwegian game with a heavy fav you cant get much better odds.

Adding all this up we trade this game because it fits our plans. The individual game isnt important now that we have entered. The whole reason we trade every game on its merits is to help us decide if we are to enter. Once we trade it, we are then adding it to our log term list of results. If we keep trading games like this we will profit long term.

[A Former User]

This might help @Mark-Maguire

@darri said in The road to full time:

Trade Breakdown: West brom vs Tottenham

Pre match selection:
West brom last 3 home games have given clues to the rest of season already. 0-0 against burnley, but when up against potential top 6 teams they have conceded 3 goals both against chelsea and leicester.
Spurs on the other hand came into this winning all 3 away games. Beating burnley, man utd and southampton.
Form tells us Spurs are in form and west brom have stuttered there way into the season so far.
When it comes to these matchups i tend to focus heavily on the team i expect to score. So for this ill now turn and have a look at the key players for spurs.

Key players research:
I chose this game because it will resonate with many traders or football fans. But really you should be finding out this knowledge with any size of team be it a prem side or a swedish side. The same principles matter.
Spurs have scored, 18 goals this season before the match. Kane scoring 6 and 8 assists (77% contribution to all team goals) Son has scored 8 and 2 assists (55% of all team goals). Now obviously some of the goals between them will have been assisting the other. But when you then look at the rest of team the nearest goal contributor is Aurier with 1 goal 1 assist (11%). As you can see without these 2 in the team the pre match stats we all looked at wouldnt work out.
People who are using pre match stats to judge if a game should be traded must be factoring in key players and who is contributing most to them, otherwise it becomes inaccurate data.

The plan:
This game wasnt filtered to me, but if it was its the exact same process. Now we write down somewhere our plan for the game. Is it a LCS, FHG, ov 2.5, comeback etc.
For me im looking at this game for a late goal. So for this to work i need the scores to be in favour of spurs needing to get a goal. So 0-0/1-0/1-1/2-1. For me i dont typically go anymore than that as those games are unpredictable and performing above average already.
I need Kane and Son to be playing but given their individual contribution either would be enough.
I then need inplay to be in favour of spurs dominating.
Ill watch the match from half time. If im seeing spurs attacking and looking lively then it supports all the points above so i would then inplay judge if price is value before placing.

Inplay:
Personal preference here, i find im able to judge trades best when im watching games and with late goal trades i only watch the 2nd half, couldnt care less what happened in the first with stats or chances etc. However i know some people get over invested when watching the match and might just be trigger happy with small chances, just using inplay stats would be your better option if that was your case.
What im looking for here is expected goals chances/clear cut chances. Not long range efforts or tight angle shots. Efforts when a defender has had to block, keeper to save, hit woodwork or had a shot within the V of the goal.

Here is the inplay stats at HT:

Not looking like a game to get involved with. But like i said i dont care what happened 1st half chances wise. Spurs not creating anything.

Here is what it looks after the 2nd half:

Massive difference. We can see spurs really upped it in the 2nd half and dominated.

Trade or No trade?
So all things pointed to spurs getting in the game. Key players both on the pitch. Spurs looked more likely to score backing up our pre match research. Chances inplay were good, with a good few efforts id have expected kane and co to have troubled keeper with.
Now THE biggest part, the price. We have outlined above why we now like this as a trade. But for us to win long term we need to add price. Price is king! Now typically with the big teams you have poor value price all the way through. However with some matches you can spot a good price so never rule it out.
I managed to get 1.75 to back ov0.5 on 70 mins, typically this will be the average price for my trades so given i have a strong fav to score this presents value to me. Basically when i look at a price calculate that into a % chance. Did i think there would be a 60%(profit after commission at this ratio) that a goal was coming, given all the points above i did. If say kane or son had come off in that time i would not have entered. Instead spurs lumped on two more attacking players to aid the threat. Factor the price in with my strike rate of my overall trades this was a good price.
So the LCS/Back next goal is matched. For most this is when you sit back and wait for a goal. For me with it being 0-0 i kept looking as i trade the LTD. For this its just looking to see if spurs consistently attack and look even more likely to score than they did 5-10 mins before when i placed the first trade.

Result:
Kane (key player research) scorred in the 87th min to win on both the LCS and LTD.
When you look at all of this and think its overwhelming. Its not. It takes me 5 mins to do this research. Even less if its a game from a filter. Do this for every game and youll start to score off those games that dont fit this criteria. Zoning in on the quality picks. Now your still not going to win every game but as traders we are looking to limit risk. By doing these steps we go from a punt to a well thought out trade/value bet.

I hope this shows how i go from a trade on paper to an actual trade. There are plenty videos of people talking about each section which makes people think its harder and longer to do than normal but its really just 5-10 mins of sitting down before a game. Any questions just ask

[A Former User]

Up far too late making sure everything this week both trading and video related stuff is planned for the rest of week. Another month of lockdown and i can only expect that march will also be similar. So just making sure i keep busy and build routines. Iv started running and actually managed to stick to a home workout routine aswell. Im not looking to bulk up just maintain fitness over the winter before hopefully a return to being able to play cricket in the summer. Small steps but the i can feel the addictive personality and competitive streak are having a good effect.

Onto trading matters. Iv been looking at my results sheet in my bid to move more towards a data driven trading plan. I was looking at the lists to come this week and on both the filters same game are on them. Now set and forget ways of doing hese is fine. But the way i plan to trade the SHGs will clash with the 1.5 SHGs. For me that means that on certain games too much bank will be used per trading session. While both in the way im looking at them especially once i tweak the SHG are both going to be profitable set and forget trades, i need to make sure im not risking too much. Obviously im not going to be data only on the SHG trades and ill still be using inplay to assess when to enter them. But im looking to have a solid base with them so that my opinion isnt the biggest deciding factor. I want my opinion to be a small but decisive one.

So with this in mind im stopping the 1.5 SHG filter. If others wish to carry it on with the rule sets then thats fine ill not copyright you Its the same with my earlier post. Im now content with my trading. I dont need to add strategies that require me to be heavily involved. The 1.5 i could see that id need to nip pick certain scores and odds. As you could see from the sheet previously it was bagging a 17%/17 point profit after only 58 games at 1% staking. A very healthy return. FOMO is not my issue anymore. Its all about making sure im managing risk not just in individual trades but how i manage what i like to describe as my business. Having too much liability in certain trading sessions just isnt wise. Yes it means im missing out on future profits long term but comparing it to what i expect the SHG to do consistently each month is a big difference. Ill explain that with proof as the year goes on.

With that in mind im hoping end of this month to have that SHG filter tweaked and starting to trade from it. Anyone who is looking at the sheets can clearly see the strengths and weaknesses of the base strike rate. Using the filter tab will help with that. Ill do a rundown end of month to showcase that. Once that is then done i plan to stop trading outwith the filters and only trade filter games, ill obviously still be inplay trading champs league and international comps but league games switch to filter only. This will cut out my workload and mean im not so involved with busy trading days and can plan a full week out. Remember efficiency is my biggest aim this year and will be a constant theme in most of these posts. Cutting out the stuff that may well be profitable but time consuming and really want to focus on what is making me more money per trading sessions consistently.

Itll be easier to explain how i plan to trade from the filter once i start to show trades and results. Im looking to be posting again both live trades and put up my results sheet as usual. A lot of my posts since new year have been me talking about trading rather than showing it. So getting back to that will help now that my focus on the BBL is over.

Yes its rich of me to be posting stuff like this because there are those actually who are just trying to find something profitable but if i didnt post to show its possible people would lose hope. Remember i too struggled at the start, blew too much money at times chasing the dream. This is why i post the advice i do because i dont want others to go through that process. Hope this rambly post helps a bit and its more a pre cursor for what the rest of this early part of the year is looking like for my own trading.

[A Former User]

@thomas-larsen bank roll management will depend on a few things. Is LCS your only strategy? Whats your strike rate for actual trades/longest losing runs. LCS was my only strategy for a while and i was maybe cutting my profit by not upping stakes. However it taught me discipline and i never got emotional about the money being put on. I only gained confidence that my ability was getting better. PROOF in what you do long term builds this. I would always encourage those to paper trade first to find out these answers. However having skin in the game actually brings out a faster learning curve forcing yourself to learn better. For the LCS especially late goals id stick between 1-5% this timezone will have bigger risk in terms of winning and losing runs. So think about will losing say 5 trades in a row cause me to act emotionally. So avoid getting to that stage and personally i would stick to 2% staking at max. If its say from another time zone such as HT trading then your risk reward changes. So find out what your comfortable with. Since i work with late goals i know that its prone to variance more so you need to manage the bank in line with that.

So 2% max in my opinion. Keep doing that for 4-5 months then look over your results if your seeing that your bank risk never gets too high for you to be worried start to slowly up them. But if your getting to that stage then your already in a very good position only 5% actually are profitable (i personally think that is surely higher than that, its just a way to scare people off that number) so in the end like most thing trading its upto the individual and how he/she manages their mindset and bank.

Fire away follow up questions on here mate or for anyone reading. The initial stage takes the longest but once there it becomes super quick to get going.

[A Former User]

@thomas-larsen thanks mate, nah you guys do for putting up and actually reading it i enjoy it tho, easy for me to just not be active and just trade away in the background. But i get no thrills from that and trading is lonely if you cant talk about it. I had a gambling problem so fair play you managed to make that work for you. I was simply useless. I think id be able to give it a fair good crack now but for me the value is always going to be in trading. As a scotsman im a keen (okayish) golfer. Actually was one of the only sports we could play in lockdown at the start. When i moved to edinburgh i stopped playing but now im back in aberdeen im keen to get back to it.

Same boat as me i have tested many things over the years and none perform better or as consistent as my lcs trades. Dont get me wrong iv tested good strats and posted the results on here. But its similar to stuarts thing it is consistent long term rather than consistent every month. For me mentally i like consistent every month and seeing progress. Id still very much say im early doors with full time trading but i dont see why that would change.

So its firstly great that you can read a game well. Iv noticed a fair few good calls on the football thread recently from you. Is reading the game part of your overall strategy? If it is then the filter can then become less important. For me i just like to have confidence that the filter has a high strike rate so that im trading within good window of certain games. Effectively if you can read a game then you should only be improving your strike rate. For me inplay reading is huge to get the most out of strategies.

So for a filter for LCS write down what you actually need to happen:
H2 0.5
I dont want that to sound patronising by saying its simple but that is actually all we need. The strategy and the results of the sheet i have up right now is just that.
Now to go even further think of the rules you will have, will you trade the 0-0 score line?
Think about the motivational scores. Lets sy the home side are losing would you want to add Home scored H2 or away concede h2?

The simpler you make this the better. Work within a strike rate to start with and then trade within that range. So does it have a 70% chance after 70 min etc. Use that as a base. The power of watching games and looking if the price is value comes from the safety net that your filter picks up good games from the start. Your then adding to that by watching if the game merits that trade.

Iv done so many posts on here about late goals. Please go read the west brom vs spurs post. Its a run down of exactly how i trade a lcs trade.

Hope this helps. If you dont want to put in the leg work to build a filter there are a few going about, you have mine, lees, garys and i think btc have both of those but adapted on the daily email. Just pick a filter and use them to filter what games your to watch that day and then feel safe trading them. Mindset and confidence is so important with trading especially if your trading inplay rather than just data trading.

[A Former User]

Gratz Darri
You really deserve it.
Your blog has helped me a lot and the Road to full time is always the first thread i look for when i log in to the forum.
Once i was full time but that was betting.
And a part of me want to be that again. B
But now i am a golf trainer and i love my job. I also have a family now which off cause changes things.
Im pretty good at reading football matches. Therefore i think LCS in the endgame suits me well. I have tried Them all. But i always come back to late goals.. Funny enough because from 2013-2016 i was grinding the unders in endgames for a living.
So what i want to work on is

I want to make a filter for LCS
I want to be much better at brm

My goal is to be ready when the golf season is over 1. november 2021

I would love if you could guide me on my way
Greetings from Denmark

[A Former User]

So i received this in the post today thanks very much BTC! Feels good to be back winning things, covid put a dampener on me getting to play any cricket this year so being able to still have a chance to win and achieve something is amazing.

Now obviously i won this probably for rambling on here and taking 3-4 posts just to explain something properly but iv really enjoyed growing in this community. Yes there have been bumps on the way and coming on and off the forum but im glad iv stuck around. Now that most of my stuff is primarily posted on this thread/blog im able to build a bit of consistency and allow people to read over not only my journey but my thoughts on trading. My posts vanish on other threads so for them i try to just post around what is currently being spoken about or on the football thread where i post my live trades. But this blog keeps all that. Now yes its a bit daunting to have to scroll back but for those who have ben around a while can see the consistency in all the things i write or want to talk about.

I spoke to a couple of guys this week who are now having great success on the forum. Both of which at some stage came to ask me either for help or an opinion. From there we built their trading up. Now they are looking at becoming consistently profitable. That for me is now the main reason i post on this forum now. As with any member the initial use is to learn to trade and see what others do. Im at a stage now that im happy with my trading and i know what kind of trader i am and want to be in future. Its just about snowballing that knowledge further with my own stuff. Yes its good to se what others are doing but it doesnt influence me anymore and instead im just happy for them and if i can add or help build their up i will. Talking to those 2 traders really is fantastic not only for them but selfishly for me, to prove that what i do and how i see trading isnt just a luck thing. Heres the other thing tho, and i told each of them same thing i never taught them how to trade, i only guided them to a way of thinking. They taught themselves by using the methods i think about and adapted it to how they wanted to trade.

That for me is the passion behind staying and being an active contributor to a fantastic forum. We are a small niche and its great we share all that we do. Seeing people come from other communities were they hide behind paid strategies etc which others on here are not able to share for me is a sign of why this is a gem of a place. BTCs communtiy doesnt sell strategies or become a tipster service. Yes that also included via filters etc, but we help build people up so that they can do it themselves. The fact those 2 were able to say they are profitable now means what i said or did had a small hand in them achieving that.

All the best for 2021 and you know im always here to help. Great place and sadly for you guys a place i dont want to leave

[Martin Walker]

I trade at 65 mins so i wont track or trade anything below 1.5 odds. So i wont artificially boost my strike rate up. Thats the value point for me although i do manage to average much higher

[Richard Latimer]

I would very much appreciate anyone who wanted to take a look at what I have so far and give me any feedback or ask questions you feel are relevant. All my stuff is in signature. The analysis tab is where I'm doing all of my recording and I've set up filters that I can manipulate in seconds to look at results/performance from all angles.

[A Former User]

@martin-walker said in The road to full time:

@bottlabroon i keep it stupidly simple. My strike rate 75.9%. My average odds 1.698. My profit this month 23.9 points

@Martin-Walker
Superb that mate

[Richard Latimer]

@bottlabroon said in The road to full time:

@martin-walker said in The road to full time:

@bottlabroon i keep it stupidly simple. My strike rate 75.9%. My average odds 1.698. My profit this month 23.9 points

Then you're doing well mate.
The point I'm trying to make is this...... and bear with me because I'm sometimes not good at explaining these things.

I monitor a new strategy and now have 1000 results to analyse.
I have 750 winners and 250 losers, therefore a 75% strike. On that basis I need minimum odds of 1.33 to break even so I make a decision to only back those selections above 1.33 and eliminate everything below.

I'm using flawed logic.

Let's say that I'm now eliminating 400 of these selections that were under 1.33 but of these 400 I'm eliminating 375 of them won. I'm now left with 600 selections - 375 winners and 225 losers. My new break even point is actually 62.5% and requires odds of 1.60 to break even so taking everything above 1.33 will cost me money.

So with my new data I take out everything below 1.60, I've now changed my SR again and need to recalculate my break even point - It's a never ending circle, every time I change the criteria I change the break even point if that makes sense.

@bottlabroon said in The road to full time:

@martin-walker said in The road to full time:

@bottlabroon i keep it stupidly simple. My strike rate 75.9%. My average odds 1.698. My profit this month 23.9 points

Then you're doing well mate.
The point I'm trying to make is this...... and bear with me because I'm sometimes not good at explaining these things.

I monitor a new strategy and now have 1000 results to analyse.
I have 750 winners and 250 losers, therefore a 75% strike. On that basis I need minimum odds of 1.33 to break even so I make a decision to only back those selections above 1.33 and eliminate everything below.

I'm using flawed logic.

Let's say that I'm now eliminating 400 of these selections that were under 1.33 but of these 400 I'm eliminating 375 of them won. I'm now left with 600 selections - 375 winners and 225 losers. My new break even point is actually 62.5% and requires odds of 1.60 to break even so taking everything above 1.33 will cost me money.

So with my new data I take out everything below 1.60, I've now changed my SR again and need to recalculate my break even point - It's a never ending circle, every time I change the criteria I change the break even point if that makes sense.

I love that this is beiing properly discussed as I almost never see it. The fact that a s/r is changed by removing certain odds and therefore higher odds are needed. It's almost a paradox.

This has been a really helpful discussion this morning. Sitting back and recording 100's of results, odds, goal times, averages and initially seeing nothing from it is a lonely job so it's good to have people clear a few trees out of the way so you can properly see the entire woods.

[Martin Walker]

@darri ive occasionally ventured into more complicated things and always ended back up with 1 goal and trade won. Very simple but effective

[Martin Walker]

@bottlabroon i think i get your point mate. As darri said we probably all just use different approaches to getting there.

[bottlabroon]

@martin-walker said in The road to full time:

@bottlabroon i keep it stupidly simple. My strike rate 75.9%. My average odds 1.698. My profit this month 23.9 points

Then you're doing well mate.
The point I'm trying to make is this...... and bear with me because I'm sometimes not good at explaining these things.

I monitor a new strategy and now have 1000 results to analyse.
I have 750 winners and 250 losers, therefore a 75% strike. On that basis I need minimum odds of 1.33 to break even so I make a decision to only back those selections above 1.33 and eliminate everything below.

I'm using flawed logic.

Let's say that I'm now eliminating 400 of these selections that were under 1.33 but of these 400 I'm eliminating 375 of them won. I'm now left with 600 selections - 375 winners and 225 losers. My new break even point is actually 62.5% and requires odds of 1.60 to break even so taking everything above 1.33 will cost me money.

So with my new data I take out everything below 1.60, I've now changed my SR again and need to recalculate my break even point - It's a never ending circle, every time I change the criteria I change the break even point if that makes sense.

[A Former User]

@martin-walker Profit is all that matters end of day, all the things we do to get there actually are just up to the individual to decide how important it is. The simpler we keep anything in trading the better. Thats why this blog isnt very technical at times because i dont think that kind of trading suits me. My spreadhseets compared to most are very basic because those columns are all i care about. My trading is very basic too. I dont do fancy trades. Keep it simple and consistent and enjoy trading. The times iv ventured off to try elaborate trades the more iv went on to realise the simple one goal approach is my style. Its reliable and i know the variables to look at. Thankfully those type of trades happened at the start so i could quickly realise that.

BTW its great to see the progress you have had bud, keep that up!

[Martin Walker]

@finn-kristensen 65 mins

[Finn Kristensen]

@martin-walker said in The road to full time:

@bottlabroon i keep it stupidly simple. My strike rate 75.9%. My average odds 1.698. My profit this month 23.9 points

That is excellent - is that for 70 min or..?

[A Former User]

@darri Nah its all good