Not been very vocal over the last few weeks but that does not been I have not been testing things. So an update, I was waiting to see what the happened up to mid May with the lay at 3 automation - I knew pretty much that it was not going to go too well, even filtering results by type and distance. Essentially, it would not work as a set and forget, it is difficult to get three under 3 consistently enough to make it worth doing. So, this is going to be moth balled for now.
However, what I did spot is that in races where the favourite goes off over 3.5 it could be worth backing the 1st, 2nd and 3rd favourites. I have been testing this for a couple of weeks now with a 1 point back stake per runner and it does seem to be interesting enough to take a deeper look. Early indicators seem to say Flat / AW only and 7 to 11 furlongs are the best bets. You don’t get many per day and the minimum return is 0.5 points to a max 3 point loss, but the strike rate is pretty good so it is mitigating loss.
Now that I’ve knocked the lay at 3 on the head, I’ll set up a couple of test scenarios, one flat backing set and forget, the other a trading version, to green in running and see what happens. You gotta love science LOL.
I’m also testing a couple of other automations / strategies - in particular an in running one that if the 2nd favourite is below 1.8 then lay the first and second - once again not many a day but it is too early to tell what’s what - partial matching is a problem though so this may not be viable 😞 Only time and testing will tell me I guess.
Another one that lays the LTO Winner who is a course winner more than twice (distance winner either never or not), and a few variations, but that is just a paper trading affair at the moment pulling from the software only. It seems interesting, my filter gets an Adam score of 3.5 which is encouraging.