Ged's Trading Diary
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Hi Guys, Ive been on BTC for around 10 months now and figured it was about time I started a trading diary on BTC to record my development/thoughts as a trader.
So a little bit about what I'm doing.....
I'm currently live trading two Set and Forget strategies from the profitable members strategies (Tomasz 1.5 and Martins Over1.5) as well as trading Ryans Split stake, SHG and another split stake based on an older version of Martins Set and Forget 1.5. I've also been trading Ryans Betgreen as a split stake which has been good so far. I realise this sounds like a lot of strategies to trade but I have limited time to actually sit and trade so I don't get many picks per month that I can actually do. I'm currently using £3 stakes.In testing I have two set and forgets of my own which at the moment are about break even, (a over 1.5 and a under 2.5) as well as tracking Martins BTTS S&F as a No strategy. I am hoping to develop and work on more strategies in the future but have been concentrating on getting used to the mechanics of trading and working on my mindset which can be a bit negative when things aren't going well.
Overall I feel my development this last 10 months since joining BTC has been great and I have learned loads mainly discipline. I am profitable more months than not at the moment which in itself is progress.
I'll post my monthly results and testing below. Thanks guys
Cheers, Ged
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MAY UPDATE
With most of the winter leagues coming to an end I haven't done much trading this month, so I’ve been using my time to get more organised with my record keeping and playing around with new strats. As well as keeping old fashioned written records of results, I’ve moved everything to spreadsheets where I can see more clearly the p/l with the use of charts etc. This will hopefully give me a better picture of how things are going both monthly and longer term.
My trading strat that I have been testing has got to 200 results and has a 78% strike rate for a FHG and 68.5 for SHG, so I am now further testing it as a FHG strat for another 300 games as both a Set and Forget and as a trading strat with entry points at 15 and 30 mins. If either way is profitable I hope to take it live at the back end of the year and share it on the forum if it is good enough. Theres a long way to go yet! I’ve also been looking at an old version of Martins Over 1.5 which has a strike rate of 77.5% after 200 picks as a FHG strat so I’ll keep an eye on that as well.
Some of my other strats are coming along quite nicely but I haven’t got nearly enough data on these before I get too excited with them.
Here are my results for May, although they are worth taking with a pinch of salt as some had only 1 or 2 picks throughout the month.
Tomasz Lay Under 1.5 -1.08 pts
Martins Over 1.5 -0.79 ptsMy FHG S&F +4.08
My Over 1.5 S&F +1.21
My Over 2.5 +7
My Over 1.5 S&F V2 +0.04 -
APRIL UPDATE
A bit late with this but here goes. Like a few others on the forum April has been a poor month, down 6 units on the Set and Forget’s and 1.1 units on trading strategies. One of the main problems was the Serbian league which ruined Tomasz’ 1.5 strat which I hadn’t realised until one of the members said, that the league had gone into a relegation group at this stage of the season. Proves Martins point about not trading end of season games!
Having said that there has been a good few positives this month, my two Set and Forget strats have continued to do OK in testing and a new trading strat seems to be promising, after 100 picks the strike rates are 81/100 FHG and 74/100 SHG, was thinking of using this as a split stake strategy when I have more data and if it continues to do well.
Unfortunately Martin’s BTTS I was tracking as a NO strat has tanked by 12 pts.
Got to say one big help this month has been the Trading Lounge and although I have only managed three sessions in there due to work etc, it has been really useful and given me a bit more knowledge and confidence when live trading.
So, overall a poor month profit wise but I feel a good month for the development of strategies and myself. Now looking forward to the Summer leagues, Iceland and Norway are always some of my favourite leagues to trade.
Cheers.
Results......
Set and Forget
Tomasz 1.5 -5.97
Martins Over 1.5 -0.09Trading Strats
SHG -1
Ryans Split Stake -0.28
Betgreen as a Split Stake +0.68Testing
Geds Over 1.5 S&F +2.12
Geds Over 1.5 S&F v2 +1.33
BTTS No -12.58
Geds Over 2.5 +1.6 -
@martin said in Ged's Trading Diary:
@ged-brown good update this thanks for posting, very interested in btts no as I can never find a good btts yes one
Thanks Martin
Will be intresting to see where it is with some league filtering, will keep you posted 
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Updates for March
Here are my trading and testing results for March. Not a bad month overall, although my Under 2.5 S&F tanked so I have pulled that for the moment as I wouldn't be comfortable with strategy that looses 11pts in a month. Martins BTTS as a reverse performed well although it has started April poorly. I haven't been able to record every match from the strategies that are being tested because of work, Saturday mornings and afternoons are a struggle, which may or may not be a good thing as I've not had much luck on Saturdays.
I really need to find time to do more inplay trading as I only managed trades this month, which is obviously not giving a good idea of variance as a couple of losses can look disastrous.
I upped my stakes to £4 this month (April) and typically the first weekend was poor (international break to blame no doubt) but there's already been a decent upswing this weekend.
One personal positive was that I handled losses much better, think I'm finally starting to feel comfortable with variance which has come with time and a bit more experience. Still get those days where I feel I'll never make it but they're becoming less and less.A couple of new filters to test next month (one trading, one S&F) so I'll see how those go and post the results at the end of April. At the end of the Winter season any strategies that look decent will get league filtered and tested onwards.
Cheers, Ged
Martins Over 1.5 S&F +2.83 PTS
Tomasz Lay 1.5 S&F +3.14 PTSSHG -1 PT
Over 1.5 Split -2.93 PTS
Ryans Split Stake +0.63 PTS
Ryans LTD as a split Stake +0.93 PTSTesting
Ged's Over 1.5 S&F +0.93 PTS
ELO +1.18 PTS
Martins BTTS as a NO +10.69 PTS
Ged's Under 2.5 S&F -11.23 PTS -
That's promising might have a look myself.Your u2.5 looks nice as well btw
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@david-baker-0 said in Ged's Trading Diary:
Just out of interest how long have you been tracking the btts reverse?
Only since the beginning of February so early days yet, but this month so far it's +9.06 units up
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No probs mate
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Just out of interest how long have you been tracking the btts reverse?
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@david-baker-0 Cheers Davis, and thanks
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Nice one Ged,I am in a very similar place to you and will follow with interest
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February 2023 Results
Set and Forget
Tomasz 1.5 +4.11 Units
Martins Over 1.5 +0.89 UnitsTrading Strategies
SHG +0.45
Over 1.5 Split -0.81
Ryans Split +1.79
Ryans LTD as a split +0.74Testing
Geds Over 1.5 -0.50
Geds Under 2.5 +4.64
Martins BTTS No +4.74
ELO -1.41
