one game tonight
20:00 Ajax v Excelsior

@Jon-Kinnear said in Jon's FHG Strategy/Testing/Data collection:

National 12 over 1.5 fhg and just 1 under 0.5 fhg odds 3.60 under 2.80 for over
AC milan 8 over 1.5 fhg and just 1 under 0.5 fhg odds 3.40 for under 2.94 for over
Barnechea 3 over 1.5 fhg with 0 under 0.5 fhg odds 3.55 for under 2.84 for over
Universidad same as Barnechea 3-0 odds 3.45 for under 2.96 for over

National had 2 fhg, and the other 3 games all had 1 goal for scratch + 2.74 for yesterday

+5.84 points overall

6 wins
3 loses
4 scratch
1 postponed

nothing today

Sun 21/04/2024 Selections.
IMG_1023.jpeg

So while the P&L isn't great, mentally another good week. Have decided for the football, I seem to be better at finding value bets so will follow that philosophy for now rather than using specific strategies.
I have also created a framework for my manual horse bets in the horse racing software and found what I do should be profitable over the long term which is reassuring even if it can't be automated (think it might be but will take more research).

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Very much interested in this!

@Martin Not just for horse racing then 😆

@Martin it feels really good to be honest Martin. Feels like I've graduated trading primary school and am now off into secondary school for a time being. Shout outs to you and @Ryan for the content and advise aiding the journey.

Big things are on the way - I can feel it!

@Dan-MacKinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:

A new month, a new "fun trade". This time I'm using the xG feature on the football software and gone with the following. I intend to close the trade at HT.

Lay Bournemouth @ 2.98 (£2 liability)
Back U1.5 FHG @ 1.5 (£2 liability)
Back U1.5G @ 4.5 (£1 liability)

FH xG is
WHU 0.51 vs BOR 0.59
WOL 0.34 vs UTD 0.25

According to the software the most common HT scores are 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1. The only difference is there are no scorelines that have Bournemouth winning at HT. I've checked Soccer Stats and West Ham have not been losing at HT this season.

Soccer Stats also have Man United as the 3rd worst offensive team. Worse than Palace!

Well, that backfired! Strike two, if next month is a losing one that'll be the end of my fun trades. And heads up, next month definitely will be because I'm saving it Cheltenham festival!

I blame the software. Where's that YouTube video?! I need to leave a comment saying how this xG is broken and BTC is a rubbish tipping service! 😈

@Ryan Thanks. Nice one, i will take all this in to account. Yes, I’m not keen on high draw odds and like to be in 4.6 and below too. Not paid too much attention to the home odds as perhaps i should though, mainly just working on getting a decent number of trades at draw odds I’m comfortable with.

Small update in that I am also trialling a strategy which consists of backing the B2L selections 30 minutes before the off and trading out just before the race starts. Back testing for this show a very nice return, the price goes in my favour quite frequently. Nothing in the criteria and settings have really been selected for this, it's just by chance. One I'll be keeping an eye on.

This will run alongside the B2L and L2B strategies.

@simon-topper thanks for doing this and look forward to the next entry!

Sunday 30 Dec 2023.

Seems strange that this may be the last time I enter 2023 on anything! Happy new year if you're reading this!
So, No trading today, went out for food with my oldest, +25.89 points this week, a nervy 4 days where I only got back to staking my usual 2.5 points yesterday.

Been having problems since the big loss! I seem to have lost the courage of my convictions a little? had I not, I might be more points up this week but taking 15 points from Friday with no big losers this week has made the week look ok.

Looking foreword to next year it's going to be more of the same until March when I'll close my years accounts and reset for the next business year! The hope is that I can be profitable by then? As far as BTC is concerned, I'm still having a crisis of confidence with the strategies and I also don't like being tied to a position where it becomes a chore? I like the freedom of not having to trade if I don't feel good or if there's something more important to do!

I'm teaching the kids that when they play their games on the Switch or PS5 they must collect all of the loot, Tommy is well trained and if asked he will tell you the most important thing is to "Collect all the money"
I want them to learn that money is very important, not as important as family or health & well-being but having it gives you access to other things which are very important like good nutrition, education, possessions etc. etc.

Anyway, I've managed t claw back to -38 points since 7th July 2023 and if I can cut the losses or even just the big ones, I should be profitable by the end of the trading year (3 Apr 2024).

If I'm not, I'll have to re-think!

@Ryan yeah they seem pretty decent. I'm sure there are plenty of other people better qualified than me to make suggestions for in play stats.
But for me I know there are plenty of sites you can go on such as bet365, flashscore etc. I just think it would be useful to make it more in tune for people who are trading and also easier to view/identify potential trades by having the stats of easier to view, for all the live matches rather than having to click on them 1 by 1. As for useful stats obviously most traders will be looking for potential goals. So things like shots on target, off target, corners, possession and dangerous attacks. Something that could also be useful is a momentum style tracker to see how the match is going and maybe the times of the shots on target. Not sure how viable some of these things are but I would find them useful when looking for SHG'S and many other in play strategies. Just an idea anyway. Not sure how many others would find having something like this useful.

@Mark-Maguire thank you! Will start tracking those now too 🙂

@Jamie-Bourne fantastic read, always wanted a TT myself but it's not practical with the kids, when I retire I will get one or something better!

Good luck with the trading, sounds like you have a sound strategy! Keep us updated

@Mikael-Nordstrom if I was new to Betfair Trading in 2023 I would be looking at set and forget automation, basically doing the same thing I am now using strategies that have worked and tweaking them if neccessary.

Had a quick look. Don't think doubles will work. When the strategy goes through periods of lose, win ,lose ,win you would lose a little more than singles. you'll need lots of long periods of wins to claw that back, plus all the extra work involved just at worth it.

Results: 03/07/23

Chengdu Rongcheng - Beijing Guoan 0-1 N/M

@Ged-Brown looks like you are starting to nail your strategies! This is great news well done!