Trading Plan:
I am currently in full time employment and renovating a house (nearly complete), therefore set and forget strategies are the most suitable for me at the moment.

Strategies:
For the past 3 months, I have been collecting a whole load of data on games that have 50+% overall over 1.5 goals (min odds 1.15) on one sheet and 40+% overall over 2.5 goals (min odds 1.5) on another, these results are from teams that have played atleast 8 games in the current season.

Link to data here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1swFhFGW8DhUlG7Qpb7RLDnf8N3GohKlGnqveixuG_r8/edit?usp=sharing

I have backfitted these data sets to create my strategies:

Over 1.5 (+147.83pts | 84.57% Strike Rate | Av 1.32 Odds)
May = +66.31pts
June = +40.08pts
July (so far) =+41.44pts

Over 2.5 (+124.08pts | 65.78% Strike Rate | Av 1.89Odds)
May = +72.29pts
June = +18pts
July (so far) =+33.79pts

Overall (+271.91)
May = +138.6pts
June = +58.08pts
July (so far) = +75.23pts

Staking Plan:
I will be starting with a £500 bankroll.
I have decided to use 2 point stakes on the ov 1.5 goals selections and 1 point stakes on the ov 2.5, this is mainly due to the losing streaks that I have noticed from the over 2.5 goals data which may affect me too much mentally with 2 point stakes.

I have split the bankroll in to the phases below:

Phases 1-10 = £100-£1000
e.g I'm starting in phase 5 with £500, if I am above £600 by the end of a day I will move to phase 6 and start using £6 as 1 point, this will not go back to phase 5 until I finish under £550 by the end of the day. If I go below £450 by the end of a day, then I move down to phase 4 and use £4 as 1 point.. so on and so forth.

Phases 10+ = £1000+
Same as above but phases every £1000.

I will be posting my selections and results everyday on this thread for some accountability.
Sods law it'll go tits up now I've started putting money on!

last edited by Connor Garland
Level 26

Long time since posting on this. Been moving house so have been quite busy of late.

Since 22nd October, I have been testing a number of strategies (below) using my data set that goes back to May 22:

Over 1.5
Under 1.5
FHG
SHG
Over 2.5
Under 2.5

I’m just wondering how long you give a strategy before getting rid? The over and under 2.5’s are both 15 points down already using 2 point stakes.

Level 26

Currently playing round with my spreadsheet using standard deviation and coefficient of variation (CV) to give a numerical value to the consistency of a leagues results.

Has anyone used this before and if so, what’s a good percentage to aim for?

For example, I have 93 over 1.5 results for Sweden Superettan which would yield approx 12.7 points profit. But the CV is 168.15% which suggests the results are quite inconsistent.

Not sure this is something I build in to the filter or just have it there as a reminder to take caution on the more inconsistent leagues

Level 26

@connor-garland said in Beginner Trading Journey:

Week 3:

-17.46pts

Worst week of the data set by far

Probably worth monitoring international breaks, I'm not surprised by this

Pro Trader
Level 199

Week 3:

-17.46pts

Worst week of the data set by far

Level 26

@stephen-oleary that’s a great analogy actually!
Even just laying the data out in a time frame has really helped as I can see a bad day or a good day relative to past results

Level 26

@connor-garland Id even go monthly or quarter I was recording my results daily on my racing and football trades and found i got frustrated some days to the point i tried chasing loses(a big problem i still have usually after a few pints) I have found if i record everything on the 1st Monday of every month i see a bigger picture, a more reliable structure on my results and a more accurate assessment on my strategies. Starting in the new year im going to go ever 3 months (thats the limit on betfair australia to get your P&L data).
Th way i see it is when someone starts a new job you dont base there performane on a day to day outcome you base it on what they have done over 3 months and then with that 3 month data you can then break it down the monthly daily even hourly.

Level 15

@connor-garland said in Beginner Trading Journey:

Week 2:

+27.84pts

Amazing!

Pro Trader
Level 199

Week 2:

+27.84pts

Level 26

@connor-garland yeah sounds like amazing stuff so far!

Pro Trader
Level 199

@martin the data set goes back to the beginning of May. I’m using small stakes for another couple of months until I commit to it with a bigger bank.

The back test looks really consistent over the longer term. I was getting caught up on the results of a couple of days but putting a bit of analysis on the results has really helped me with ‘typical’ results daily, weekly and monthly

Level 26

@connor-garland said in Beginner Trading Journey:

I am only going to be posting weekly updates from now on as I think it’ll help me to not focus on daily results.

I’ve noticed that’s a problem off mine, I’ll have a bad day, get frustrated, think there’s something wrong with the strategy and therefore re-do the filtering so it’s a been bit of a rollercoaster.

Just going to stick to this current strategy and compare the results per week. I’ve done a bit of analysis on the spreadsheet to give me an indication of what weekly results to expect and determine what’s actually a bad week and a good week.

Would love to hear what you guys think?

sounds like a plan, how long have you been testing these?

Pro Trader
Level 199

Week update:

-0.46pts

Level 26

I am only going to be posting weekly updates from now on as I think it’ll help me to not focus on daily results.

I’ve noticed that’s a problem off mine, I’ll have a bad day, get frustrated, think there’s something wrong with the strategy and therefore re-do the filtering so it’s a been bit of a rollercoaster.

Just going to stick to this current strategy and compare the results per week. I’ve done a bit of analysis on the spreadsheet to give me an indication of what weekly results to expect and determine what’s actually a bad week and a good week.

Would love to hear what you guys think?

Level 26

@martin I’ve definitely discovered that I lean more to the side of ‘I might just give up’ rather than chasing losses.

Saying that, I know there’s money to be made in this dataset which keeps me going! Just got a few more lessons to learn really

last edited by Connor Garland
Level 26

@connor-garland 😞 onwards and upwards! 🙂

Pro Trader
Level 199

-12.73pts yesterday, bit of a rollercoaster

Level 26

@chris-osborne think I best take a deep dive in to when to stop trading the leagues and make note so I’m not making mistakes like that again!

Level 26

@connor-garland Finland and Iceland also finish next week other than play offs; winter leagues start hitting filters anytime now

last edited by Chris Osborne
Level 104

@connor-garland said in Beginner Trading Journey:

@connor-garland realised there’s only 3 games left in South Korea, shouldn’t be trading them and the results will probably show it!

Yep 9 points lost 👍🏻
Angry

Level 26
  • 273
    Posts
  • 15703
    Views