*****New Football Thread*****
-
Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current Score -
Looking at the outrights this morning. Think it could be a good time to back Belgium.
Think they have a very good chance of getting to the last 16 where they will probably play the US for a place in the quarters. At the current form they lose that game. But think the current price of 50s could easily could down to 25-30 region by then for a decent trade out.
-
After the France game I'm out. I think there is something there and I'm going to keep tracking but save that for 2030.
-
Other than in 2018 there's an argument for not bothering with round 3. It doesn't automatically flip to being value on the over though.
-
I tell a lie. Spain got the 0-0 haha! Who would have thought that!??
-
This is so annoying. I've been looking into under 2.5 with same criteria and still fits the pattern. I was going to look into it yesterday but didn't have the time.
Instead of a small profit yesterday was a good 6pts or more loss.
Looking into it all now though. I think it's the way to go. This tournament which is in the red by about 10pts would be around 3-4pts in front on laying under 2.5.
It's not a REALLY high scoring tournament but there are virtually no 1 score games and not a single 0-0 yet.
-
Scotland gave me my first win then Australia pegged me back a bit. Then Netherlands gave me another loss before Ecuador gave me my 2nd win.
Then Sweden battered Tunisia. Around 3pts down.
-
Alot of goals so far in this tournament and I'm not puttting it down to rule changes. Really hasn't been that drastic and only goal I can recall in injury time is from tonight.
First 6 games all gone over which hasn't happened in all the data I've looked at. First 5 in 2022 but then followed by loads of unders.
-
Oh so close in Canada. .and the states battered Paraguay.
-around 5pts so far.
Swiss won't qualify. Brazil probably will, Scotland if they don't come in price too much and prob Turkey.
-
That stayed just out of range and thankfully so as it ends 2-1.
The next 2 appear nailed on to qualify as the odds are right where I want them and neither drift or shortening should matter. As long as they stay between 1.51 & 2.62 I will be in.
22 games left in round 1. Missed the first 2 losers. Even 2014 had 2 unders in the group games. This is extended so let's say worst case scenario 3/22 now haha! Of course there are some heavy heavy favourites so you have to take them out.
-
South Korea v Czech is on the cusp of becoming an over 1.5 lay. Price on favourite (currently South Korea) needs to come in to lay price of 2.62. Of course the game doesn't begin until 3. For me I'm off to bed soon and I'm going to set an alarm as I don't want to pull the trigger now completely miss the opportunity if it does fall below.
I'm going for 5pts in each game which will normally be around 2-2.5 pts liability.
-
@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Well I've gone back as far as betfair odds allow on oddsportal to 2010. If it goes like 2010, 2018 & 2022 then I have a solid plan in place. If we see another tournament like 2014 where things seemed to flip then I would be looking at a small loss due the lay odds being low. Not a disaster by any shape.
I did briefly look at whether remaining games could be layed on under 3.5 goals but that appears too hit and miss.
I looked at this again yesterday
2010 good profit
2014 under 1pt loss
2018 good profit
2022 good profit -
@Richard-Latimer Similar to your analysis, I’ve reviewed data for last two world cups plus last years club World Cup and for matchday one, unders definitely seems to be the play for all games that don’t have a heavy favourite.
Will be picking one or more of the following markets for most matches in matchday one:
Under 2.5 at 1.7 or better
Under 3.5 at 1.3 or better
Under 0.5 at HT at 2.6 or better
Under 1.5 at HT at 1.55 or betterMatches that are the exceptions where I won’t do this are the germany, Spain and Norway games.
-
@Patrik-Mellqvist Quarter Kelly seems the "safest" option; anything else just almost inevitably ends in bankruptcy!
-
@Patrik-Mellqvist Excuse my ignorance but what is a half Kelly Criteria please?
-
Do anyone apply Half Kelly Criteria
It seems very good after using an calculator.Cheers
-
I'll do it all on a flat stake as well to be sensible.
-
Well I've gone back as far as betfair odds allow on oddsportal to 2010. If it goes like 2010, 2018 & 2022 then I have a solid plan in place. If we see another tournament like 2014 where things seemed to flip then I would be looking at a small loss due the lay odds being low. Not a disaster by any shape.
I did briefly look at whether remaining games could be layed on under 3.5 goals but that appears too hit and miss.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=v8arsy1si4v0651ser69coa45&st=4r1o63le&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
I definitely don't trust it with anything odds related. It's telling me it hallucinated some numbers now.
I do however trust that over 1.5 is especially low in round 1 and still lowish across rounds 2, 3
Round 1- low scoring
Yep, that will be the case
Round 2 and 3- won't be as low scoring.
With best third places qualifying, teams will push for goals, especially in round 3. Also, bigger teams have more of an incentive to finish top (to get a weaker opponent in the knockout round) with there being a round of 32 (more chance of an upset with another knockout round).
Agree with Keith that there will be late goals- the MLS is full of them and many matches are being played at high altitude (any game in Mexico).
International tournaments tend to have more late goals in any case, particularly if a team is trailing. -
Haven’t checked potential odds yet but would be looking for the early games or ones played in extreme heat to be low scoring but I’m guessing markets will be well prepared for that.
Wonder if stats from last years club World Cup may be more relevant than 1998 World Cup just from a conditions perspective more than anything
