*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current Score -
@Ryan hopefully you're right on the Real price as I'll be laying Bilbao on my system.
On Pep I will stop short of calling him a 100% genius. Yes his influence on the modern game has been massive. Most teams trying to adopt a system of playing out from the back now. Football played along the floor rather than slung up in the air into no mans land.
Thing is, could he get the more limited players doing that same thing that he started all those years ago with the cream of the crop.
Could he break Scottish dominance of the old firm with a shoe string budget and largely average players (or at least players not as good - must admit I know little about the sum of parts in this)? Could he win the European Cup with Aberdeen or Nottm Forest? Then do it again??
Could he consistently keep a team in the Champions League for 17 years.....mostly on a negative net spend and a really limiting wage bill where year after year clubs are poaching your biggest players??
In order to be considered the best, to my mind he has to show he can do it when his back is against the wall and he doesn't have everything going his way. The playing field needs to be level if not tilted against him.
Unless he challenges himself I'm not sure it ever will be.
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@Shannon-Townsend what game?
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@Akiva-Anderson this one popped up on my BTTS filter for tonight with odds currently at 1.73 (57.8% chance)... 4 out of the last 5 games head to head have been BTTS (so 80% or should be odds around 1.25)...
The over 2.5 market looks great value at nearly evens as well...
a quiet day in my office makes finding trades a lot easier.
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Over 1.5 Goals tonight:
Dundee v Motherwell
81.4% probability (1.23). Odds are currently 1.29. Value of +4.88%
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@Shannon-Townsend Yea thats a mental price for Liverpool especially with like you say the form of Liverpool, the H2H, Liverpool have just come off beating Real Madrid and City, that looks crazy to me.
Unless there's about the be some news that Salah, Virgil, Gravenberch are all out....
I looked at that match, I have Arsenal as winning that, but I am with you that price looks huge! Especially if Arsenal start slow and United can nab one!
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@Ryan i was surprised to not see the Liverpool odds be shorter, their excellent form and bearing in mind Newcastle lost at home to West Ham not long ago... strange...
as an outside one i think Man Utd draw no bet at 6.8 looks pretty good as well for a small stake... very high chance Arsenal win i get that but a slighty resurgent Utd and taking the draw out of it this seems a good price to me.
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Couple of mental prices today I have spotted....
Newcastle v Liverpool - by my reckoning Liverpool have a 70% chance of winning this, implying the odds should be 1.43, I am saying if they played this game 10 times, I think Liverpool win 7 of them. Liverpools price on the exchange is 1.86?!
Bilbao v Real - Asian Handicap 0. Real are currently 1.72 - mental?! Surely same logic as above, my stats and calcs have that at a 76% chance of winning, which means the odds should be 1.32 but getting 1.72 here? Mental!
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@GREGORIOS-KARASHIALIS and on to the next one
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@Craig-Greenway i am in also, just got in on the 19th minute @ 1.54
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@Mark-Maguire keep them coming, i like your theory
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My 1st trade of the day is Tampines v Lee Mans FHG.
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@Mark-Maguire Thank you! That be mega!
Yeh that makes a lot of sense that does, like a lad I went to uni with was easily the best player I have ever seen (I went to school with Lee Frecklington and Sam Clucas - both had good careers!). But he took the bright lights option of Man United, didn't get a sniff and ended up doing Physiotherapy washed out (his words) at 28.
That system won't change but its a shame there can't be some kind of joint ownership or longer terms loans, where they still get the name of being a City etc... player but have then gone on loan to the right team.
Look at Ben Doak this season, crushing it at Middlesborough, the issue there though? They'll get promoted what happens?! He should stay on Loan there and get a season in the Premier League with them instead of coming back to sit on the bench.
I do also get though why the Premier League teams do it with PSR rules, they sell 5 players every season who have talent all profit on the books can spend ยฃ100-150m on players.... with buybacks just incase and sell on fees.
Myself I would love to see a draft system, I really would love that but it'll never happen.
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A few for me today to be looking at:
Over 2.5 split stake out after 55 min if no goal:
Jablonec vs ฤeskรฉ
Slovan Bratislava vs Komarno
Red Star vs Backa Topola
Peterborough vs BurtonIf the first goal is in first 15 mins I green up to a free bet and then top up before half time, out at 55 regardless.
If first goal comes later take green.
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@Ryan agree 100 per cent re Salah.. and I'm going to take a look at that book, will bring a couple over with me when I visit for you.
Re pathways I'm afraid it all boils down to the people behind the players (Players and Agents).
Its broken really because big Prem clubs are hoovering up talent across the country from very young ages so all the EFL clubs basically assume they will lose any decent players they have. Where Brentford were brilliant is that they said "Ok we can't compete on the academy side so lets focus instead on 16-21 because the "Big Teams" reject a load of good players so we can benefit from that" Add to their data recruitment and they've been brilliant.
I can't tell you the number of times I have been in meetings with Parents and Agents trying to tell them the best pathway for their youngster is to play games at a lower level and get that physical challenge, instead of following the bright lights with an offer from a championship or premier league team to go and get lost in their youth set up.. more often than not the ones who got giddy or listened to the agent (because for them its the glory of boasting getting a player to the higher level) the young players who went have regretted it.. whereas the ones who stayed and played first team football have gone on to have fantastic careers. Its a subject I feel so strongly about and you're right about protecting a pathway - at the moment it just relies on good people in football (rare enough) and sensible parents.
Look at Archie Gray - and his brother Harry who is the next one I mentioned a while back - Their Dad is sensible measured and made sure they ignored offers from City, United, Everton when they were 15/16 - Archie plays a season at Leeds and gets his move .. no doubt with guaranteed games in the Europa League .. but most Dads would have taken the City offer at 15
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@Mark-Maguire I think its the only way to know, he's pretty solid at making people better.
Yeh they will struggle with Salah and I get it... as a fan he's quality and a massive goal threat BUT when you dish out a contract the likes Salah most likely wants you need the output... which we aren't sure if you get that this time around, he isn't 25 or even 30.... not saying he wont be quality for the next few years but they dont give out contracts based on your history.
It's a great book that, any others you recommend on this stuff? I have been looking at it a bit, they used Poisson and another one that escapes me now will need to get it from the book.
One Q I would have if I was the FA was why can't we look to create better pathways for that through the leagues? Like the lad Brighton took from Leeds he looks unreal!
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@Ryan It would be great to watch if he did
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@Ryan they are impressive and the owners were involved a bit in similar process of recruitment in the states weren't they ? That's why they will struggle with the Sarah decision because it will go against their principles but they will know how important he is ?
Best of the best are Brentford and Brighton of course ! Albeit Brighton splashed out this summer. Back in the day Swansea had brilliant principles - a philosophy to their recruitment (promising players from a lower level) and they built gradually until they reached the Premier League - they kept the principles for a couple of years then sold out abandoned the things that made them great and down they went - I love looking into this stuff
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I'm reading "How to win the Premier League" It's about Liverpool so I am biased that its good but from a purely stats / trading / betting view its bloody brilliant, talks about how Liverpool found players and also a bit about stats modelling that the owners of both Brighton and Brentford have used to build their wealth and then taken that into the teams they bought.
Is a bit all over the shop, but is very very good for traders and betting people.
