*****New Football Thread*****

[Martin]

Welcome to the new football trading main thread!

Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!

Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide

We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials

FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current Score

[Richard Latimer]

I'll do it all on a flat stake as well to be sensible.

[Richard Latimer]

Well I've gone back as far as betfair odds allow on oddsportal to 2010. If it goes like 2010, 2018 & 2022 then I have a solid plan in place. If we see another tournament like 2014 where things seemed to flip then I would be looking at a small loss due the lay odds being low. Not a disaster by any shape.

I did briefly look at whether remaining games could be layed on under 3.5 goals but that appears too hit and miss.

[Stuart Capstick]

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

I definitely don't trust it with anything odds related. It's telling me it hallucinated some numbers now.

I do however trust that over 1.5 is especially low in round 1 and still lowish across rounds 2, 3

Round 1- low scoring

Yep, that will be the case

Round 2 and 3- won't be as low scoring.

With best third places qualifying, teams will push for goals, especially in round 3. Also, bigger teams have more of an incentive to finish top (to get a weaker opponent in the knockout round) with there being a round of 32 (more chance of an upset with another knockout round).

Agree with Keith that there will be late goals- the MLS is full of them and many matches are being played at high altitude (any game in Mexico).
International tournaments tend to have more late goals in any case, particularly if a team is trailing.

[Andy Donnelly]

Haven’t checked potential odds yet but would be looking for the early games or ones played in extreme heat to be low scoring but I’m guessing markets will be well prepared for that.

Wonder if stats from last years club World Cup may be more relevant than 1998 World Cup just from a conditions perspective more than anything

[Richard Latimer]

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

I definitely don't trust it with anything odds related. It's telling me it hallucinated some numbers now.

I do however trust that over 1.5 is especially low in round 1 and still lowish across rounds 2, 3

The has changed so much. So many new rules in this world cup too.

I imagine there will be late goals due to the amount of added time.

Think I'll only trade matches that I am watching

I don't know, there's always been new rules. I'm looking for patterns going back to 1998 which is as far as I can go with the odds.

[Akiva Anderson]

@Tony-Hastie said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson NZ All Whites all the way Play Scotland in the final, win 5-4 on penalties...Oor Billy is out, or it would have been closer!

You can have my house if this happens!

[Akiva Anderson]

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

I definitely don't trust it with anything odds related. It's telling me it hallucinated some numbers now.

I do however trust that over 1.5 is especially low in round 1 and still lowish across rounds 2, 3

The has changed so much. So many new rules in this world cup too.

I imagine there will be late goals due to the amount of added time.

Think I'll only trade matches that I am watching

[Richard Latimer]

I definitely don't trust it with anything odds related. It's telling me it hallucinated some numbers now.

I do however trust that over 1.5 is especially low in round 1 and still lowish across rounds 2, 3

[Richard Latimer]

@Richard-Latimer I'm not sure I trust the figures when it comes to odds so may just be a blanket lay over.

[Richard Latimer]

Ok, I've done a deep dive on this now and have come up with a plan. If anyone can see a flaw or even better, a marked improvement please say.

Round 1) Heavy favourites 1.4 or less, lay under 1.5
Everything else, lay over 1.5

Round 2) same

Round 3) Heavy favourites, a massive lay over 1.5
Everything else, lay over 1.5 but s/r will be lower and margins tighter.

Unless it turns into 2014 it really should work.

[Richard Latimer]

Can I trust this data? No. Brilliant. I still see an edge. A high number of games without goals. from 1978 to the present with only 2014 as an outlier.

[Richard Latimer]

I found a couple of errors, pointed them out to AI and now it's telling me don't trust me haha!!

[Richard Latimer]

Depending on price that edge may be there in matchday 3, just slightly less.

[Richard Latimer]

I think I may have found a large statistical edge in matchday 1 & 2. Does anybody have average prices for over 1.5 from the last World Cup? @Everyone

Even better if you have from further back.

[Richard Latimer]

Yeah I need a foolproof strategy that works every time for world cup and European championship haha??? Almost every single league suspended for 39 days.

Still got Iceland, Ireland & Bolivia but beyond that almost nothing!

[Tony Hastie]

@Akiva-Anderson NZ All Whites all the way Play Scotland in the final, win 5-4 on penalties...Oor Billy is out, or it would have been closer!

[Akiva Anderson]

Any early world cup predictions?

I wondering if with all the no rules and the cooling breaks, will we see less yellow cards?

[Patrik Mellqvist]

@Alex-Rendell said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Patrik-Mellqvist try not being so cryptic and vague all the time and you might get more interaction - it’s not like you’ve solved or completed football betting/trading, so either talk about what you’re doing in simple terms without dodging the real facts or just keep it all to yourself and carry on making your millions alone

I understand your point of view and i can not share your point of view
But that is not important as we have free speech.

Have a great upcoming week

V

[Alex Rendell]

@Patrik-Mellqvist try not being so cryptic and vague all the time and you might get more interaction - it’s not like you’ve solved or completed football betting/trading, so either talk about what you’re doing in simple terms without dodging the real facts or just keep it all to yourself and carry on making your millions alone