*****New Football Thread*****

Martin

Welcome to the new football trading main thread!

Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!

Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide

We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials

FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current Score

Richard Latimer

That stayed just out of range and thankfully so as it ends 2-1.

The next 2 appear nailed on to qualify as the odds are right where I want them and neither drift or shortening should matter. As long as they stay between 1.51 & 2.62 I will be in.

22 games left in round 1. Missed the first 2 losers. Even 2014 had 2 unders in the group games. This is extended so let's say worst case scenario 3/22 now haha! Of course there are some heavy heavy favourites so you have to take them out.

Richard Latimer

South Korea v Czech is on the cusp of becoming an over 1.5 lay. Price on favourite (currently South Korea) needs to come in to lay price of 2.62. Of course the game doesn't begin until 3. For me I'm off to bed soon and I'm going to set an alarm as I don't want to pull the trigger now completely miss the opportunity if it does fall below.

I'm going for 5pts in each game which will normally be around 2-2.5 pts liability.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Well I've gone back as far as betfair odds allow on oddsportal to 2010. If it goes like 2010, 2018 & 2022 then I have a solid plan in place. If we see another tournament like 2014 where things seemed to flip then I would be looking at a small loss due the lay odds being low. Not a disaster by any shape.

I did briefly look at whether remaining games could be layed on under 3.5 goals but that appears too hit and miss.

I looked at this again yesterday

2010 good profit
2014 under 1pt loss
2018 good profit
2022 good profit

Andy Donnelly

@Richard-Latimer Similar to your analysis, I’ve reviewed data for last two world cups plus last years club World Cup and for matchday one, unders definitely seems to be the play for all games that don’t have a heavy favourite.

Will be picking one or more of the following markets for most matches in matchday one:

Under 2.5 at 1.7 or better
Under 3.5 at 1.3 or better
Under 0.5 at HT at 2.6 or better
Under 1.5 at HT at 1.55 or better

Matches that are the exceptions where I won’t do this are the germany, Spain and Norway games.

Alex Rendell

@Patrik-Mellqvist Quarter Kelly seems the "safest" option; anything else just almost inevitably ends in bankruptcy!

james everard

@Patrik-Mellqvist Excuse my ignorance but what is a half Kelly Criteria please?

Patrik Mellqvist

Do anyone apply Half Kelly Criteria
It seems very good after using an calculator.

Cheers

Richard Latimer

I'll do it all on a flat stake as well to be sensible.

Richard Latimer

Well I've gone back as far as betfair odds allow on oddsportal to 2010. If it goes like 2010, 2018 & 2022 then I have a solid plan in place. If we see another tournament like 2014 where things seemed to flip then I would be looking at a small loss due the lay odds being low. Not a disaster by any shape.

I did briefly look at whether remaining games could be layed on under 3.5 goals but that appears too hit and miss.

Stuart Capstick

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

I definitely don't trust it with anything odds related. It's telling me it hallucinated some numbers now.

I do however trust that over 1.5 is especially low in round 1 and still lowish across rounds 2, 3

Round 1- low scoring

Yep, that will be the case

Round 2 and 3- won't be as low scoring.

With best third places qualifying, teams will push for goals, especially in round 3. Also, bigger teams have more of an incentive to finish top (to get a weaker opponent in the knockout round) with there being a round of 32 (more chance of an upset with another knockout round).

Agree with Keith that there will be late goals- the MLS is full of them and many matches are being played at high altitude (any game in Mexico).
International tournaments tend to have more late goals in any case, particularly if a team is trailing.

Andy Donnelly

Haven’t checked potential odds yet but would be looking for the early games or ones played in extreme heat to be low scoring but I’m guessing markets will be well prepared for that.

Wonder if stats from last years club World Cup may be more relevant than 1998 World Cup just from a conditions perspective more than anything

Richard Latimer

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

I definitely don't trust it with anything odds related. It's telling me it hallucinated some numbers now.

I do however trust that over 1.5 is especially low in round 1 and still lowish across rounds 2, 3

The has changed so much. So many new rules in this world cup too.

I imagine there will be late goals due to the amount of added time.

Think I'll only trade matches that I am watching

I don't know, there's always been new rules. I'm looking for patterns going back to 1998 which is as far as I can go with the odds.

Akiva Anderson

@Tony-Hastie said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson NZ All Whites all the way Play Scotland in the final, win 5-4 on penalties...Oor Billy is out, or it would have been closer!

You can have my house if this happens!

Akiva Anderson

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

I definitely don't trust it with anything odds related. It's telling me it hallucinated some numbers now.

I do however trust that over 1.5 is especially low in round 1 and still lowish across rounds 2, 3

The has changed so much. So many new rules in this world cup too.

I imagine there will be late goals due to the amount of added time.

Think I'll only trade matches that I am watching

Richard Latimer

I definitely don't trust it with anything odds related. It's telling me it hallucinated some numbers now.

I do however trust that over 1.5 is especially low in round 1 and still lowish across rounds 2, 3

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer I'm not sure I trust the figures when it comes to odds so may just be a blanket lay over.

Richard Latimer

Ok, I've done a deep dive on this now and have come up with a plan. If anyone can see a flaw or even better, a marked improvement please say.

Round 1) Heavy favourites 1.4 or less, lay under 1.5
Everything else, lay over 1.5

Round 2) same

Round 3) Heavy favourites, a massive lay over 1.5
Everything else, lay over 1.5 but s/r will be lower and margins tighter.

Unless it turns into 2014 it really should work.

Richard Latimer

Can I trust this data? No. Brilliant. I still see an edge. A high number of games without goals. from 1978 to the present with only 2014 as an outlier.

Richard Latimer

I found a couple of errors, pointed them out to AI and now it's telling me don't trust me haha!!