"The Good Day" LTD system

[A Former User]

Hello everyone, I'm new on the community. This strategy is very interesting, still trying to wrap my head around all the numbers and their meaning though. I made a couple of paper trades yesterday on the following matches:

Orgryte v Varbergs
Toronto FC v DC United

well, luckily they were only on paper. Kind of surprised with the result from the Toronto's match (check the stats to understand why)..
One thing these 2 matches have in common: their leagues have just started (11 games for MLS and 8 for the Superettan). I wonder if this can affect the value on the chart. What are your thoughts about it?

I will try some more paper trade today, I'm keeping an eye on the following

Belenenses v Nacional
Vidar v Arendal
Sandefjord v Skeid

Let's see how it goes. Have a nice day everyone!

[A Former User]

A couple of selections for today from me:

Belgium Jupiler League Antwerp v Gent
Belgium Jupiler League St. Liege v Club Brugge KV

[A Former User]

@chris-watts glad it’s not just me with the Swiss leagues! On my other filters they consistently perform badly.....though I’ve not put my finger on it yet!

[Richard Latimer]

3 for today on mine:

Haka in Finland Ykkonen - A league with plenty of liquidity and not the lowest league offered by betfair in Finland. Very high goal expectancy even though only ave 2.6 positions seperate them in table.

Sandefjord in Norway Obos-ligaen (Norway 1) - Again plenty of liquidity and not lowest league offered in Norway on betfair. High goal expectancy and nowhere near each other in table.

Ripensia - Romania Liga 2. Lowest league offered in Romania but usually not bad liquidity and has so far given 4 wins to only 1 loss. Decent goal expectancy and nowhere near each other in table.

With the listing above I'm just trying to lay things out clearly to ensure I'm confident of each selection and also where I may be unsure of leagues long term but selection has eveything else going for it.

In terms of leagues moving forward, one way may be to exclude the lowest common denominator in each country offered on betfair.

[A Former User]

@chris-watts

No. There were 5176 games that I have on file for English leagues in seasons 17/18 & 18/19. Of these I have detailed stats for 3983. It is this list of games that I have tested he system on. Of these 3983 there was a total of 363 that qualified (so under 10%). 35 Premiership, 113 championship, 84 L1,, 61 L2, 70 National League. It is these that I sent throug in the spreadsheet.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@Chris-Watts Do you play Swiss Challenge League?

Nope, I’m not even entirely comfortable with the Swiss super league!

[Richard Latimer]

@Chris-Watts Do you play Swiss Challenge League?

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

3 for me today:

Metaloglobus v Luceafarul Oradea (09:00am)
F Constanta v Juventus Bucuresti
AArau v Kriens

Crap day for me today. Had to happen. Low odds been a bit s**t of recent.

Dodgy leagues! Where the hell is Oradea anyway!

That one was a winnner haha!! In Fairness to Romania I have 4 wins, 1 loss there so it's ok. Liquidity good too. Swiss Challenge league is quite normal. Red card screwed that up I think.

That said, I've only had 2 selections there and it's a 50/50 split so auspicious start.

[Richard Latimer]

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

3 for me today:

Metaloglobus v Luceafarul Oradea (09:00am)
F Constanta v Juventus Bucuresti
AArau v Kriens

Crap day for me today. Had to happen. Low odds been a bit s**t of recent.

Dodgy leagues! Where the hell is Oradea anyway!

That one was a winnner haha!! In Fairness to Romania I have 4 wins, 1 loss there so it's ok. Liquidity good too. Swiss Challenge league is quite normal. Red card screwed that up I think.

[Richard Latimer]

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

Just one selection from me today:

Sweden Superettan Orgryte v Varbergs

Betfair are having a bit of a wobble with this! It’s in play now and currently 0-1 but for some reason they’ve closed the market as a 0-0 draw! They really are useless!!

What was the goal expectancy and place differential on this one?

They were first and fourth I think - goal expectancy was 3.69.

Obviously just a change in the ratings somewhere since I ran it last night then

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

3 for me today:

Metaloglobus v Luceafarul Oradea (09:00am)
F Constanta v Juventus Bucuresti
AArau v Kriens

Crap day for me today. Had to happen. Low odds been a bit s**t of recent.

Dodgy leagues! Where the hell is Oradea anyway!

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

Just one selection from me today:

Sweden Superettan Orgryte v Varbergs

Betfair are having a bit of a wobble with this! It’s in play now and currently 0-1 but for some reason they’ve closed the market as a 0-0 draw! They really are useless!!

What was the goal expectancy and place differential on this one?

They were first and fourth I think - goal expectancy was 3.69.

[Richard Latimer]

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

Just one selection from me today:

Sweden Superettan Orgryte v Varbergs

Betfair are having a bit of a wobble with this! It’s in play now and currently 0-1 but for some reason they’ve closed the market as a 0-0 draw! They really are useless!!

What was the goal expectancy and place differential on this one?

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

3 for me today:

Metaloglobus v Luceafarul Oradea (09:00am)
F Constanta v Juventus Bucuresti
AArau v Kriens

Crap day for me today. Had to happen. Low odds been a bit s**t of recent.

[A Former User]

@denis-caunce thanks Dennis. The number of games looks very high to me - am I correct in my interpretation that what your saying below is that over 3000 games qualified using the criteria in this system over the two seasons?

[A Former User]

@chris-watts

Chris, I'm more than happy to engage with this. I'm really keen to find a set and forget system that works and have spent quite a few hours over the last couple of weeks putting a test bed database together. This pulls a fair bit of data together for the last couple of seasons and can pretty easily add in new leagues for analysis. If we can agree on a set of leagues to analyse I will be very happy to run it and copy you the results. There is a fair bit of progamming in the system so it may very well be that I have an error somewhere that invalidates my findings. You may very well spot the obvious mistake.

I will DM you re email addresses.

WRT the English leagues my analysis for 17/18 & 18/19 down to league 1 is below:

Draw % P&L # draws
31.43% -51.4 35 Premiership
30.09% -80.8 113 Championship
40.48% -409.4 84 League 1

Now for the caveats

• I am assuming that the data I have downloaded is accurate. It comes from BTC and Footystats so I am hopeful it is ok but I can't verify the bookmaker odds for each game.
• Not all games had detailed stats available so they were excluded from the analysis. This left 3983 games out of a total of 5176 (prem down to National League Prem) .
• I have had to assume that the price layed at is the B365 draw odds. In reality I would expect the actual price offered to be higher than this and so the losses would be higher.
• Finally I haven't taken out the commission % since this varies depending on the exchange used.

It would be great if we can get a system that works. My analysis so far suggests it might be better to bet the draw rather than lay it but, to be honest, it doesn't really matter providing we get a system that makes some money.

[Richard Latimer]

Match I'm keeping an eye on is unmanaged in allsvenskan.

[A Former User]

Feel like this is getting more regular with betfair!!

[A Former User]

Thats what you pay your 5% for!

[Richard Latimer]

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

Just one selection from me today:

Sweden Superettan Orgryte v Varbergs

Betfair are having a bit of a wobble with this! It’s in play now and currently 0-1 but for some reason they’ve closed the market as a 0-0 draw! They really are useless!!

Did you see aboive?

This morning they re-opened the market on a match they'd settled last night 1-2 winnner and promptly suspended it. Then just as I messaged them they closed and settled it again haha!!