"The Good Day" LTD system

Richard Latimer

@lee-woodman said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

0-0 HT scorelines in games, generally produce a lower SR for a SH goal and a higher chance of a draw than almost all other scorelines, including 1-1 and 2-2. This will be reflected in the odds offered but i wouldnt be too hasty to rule out 2-2 yet based on SR as you will see some sort of regression towards the mean at some point

There are hardly any 2-2 HT scorelines of course and that was the case when I was looking on a previous poject but I always found that there were a high number of games without goals the more goals scored in the first half.

I know what you mean about 0-0 but for this particular strategy it doesn't appear to be the case. Certainly on limited sample we have. 25 with goal, 1 without.

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0-0 HT scorelines in games, generally produce a lower SR for a SH goal and a higher chance of a draw than almost all other scorelines, including 1-1 and 2-2. This will be reflected in the odds offered but i wouldnt be too hasty to rule out 2-2 yet based on SR as you will see some sort of regression towards the mean at some point

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer I’m not sure off the top of my head, I play them from pre off. I’ll work it out for you tomorrow.

Sorry, I meant as a trade rather than leaving it alll the way until the end so essentially LTD at HT, trade after goal. Also, I left out 2-2 score lines as only 2 of these and it's a 50/50 split. Always the same. If anything 2-2 is a great scoreline to back at HT if you can be bothered.

Richard - if it was 0-0 or 1-1, 2-2 at halftime there were 63 selection and 57 of them had a goal in the second half. so strike rate 90.47% if traded. Interestingly though if you left them to run then the strike rate would have only been 50.79%.

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer I’m not sure off the top of my head, I play them from pre off. I’ll work it out for you tomorrow.

Sorry, I meant as a trade rather than leaving it alll the way until the end so essentially LTD at HT, trade after goal. Also, I left out 2-2 score lines as only 2 of these and it's a 50/50 split. Always the same. If anything 2-2 is a great scoreline to back at HT if you can be bothered.

Richard - if it was 0-0 or 1-1, 2-2 at halftime there were 63 selection and 57 of them had a goal in the second half. so strike rate 90.47% if traded. Interestingly though if you left them to run then the strike rate would have only been 50.79%.

This is very good. What specifically were the results when 2-2 @ HT?

There were only 4 games that were 2-2 at halftime, 3 had a goal and one didnt.

Yeah I can see actually. It confirms my suspicion that 2-2 scorelines should be left alone. Small sample I know but I found this on the last lay coorrect score I looked at as well. I would imagine it will be the same for 3-3 or more too. So if you removed those so it's 53 winners and 5 losers at that point. 91.38%.

Do you not keep a record of ratings for dirty play?

Richard Latimer

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer I’m not sure off the top of my head, I play them from pre off. I’ll work it out for you tomorrow.

Sorry, I meant as a trade rather than leaving it alll the way until the end so essentially LTD at HT, trade after goal. Also, I left out 2-2 score lines as only 2 of these and it's a 50/50 split. Always the same. If anything 2-2 is a great scoreline to back at HT if you can be bothered.

Richard - if it was 0-0 or 1-1, 2-2 at halftime there were 63 selection and 57 of them had a goal in the second half. so strike rate 90.47% if traded. Interestingly though if you left them to run then the strike rate would have only been 50.79%.

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer I’m not sure off the top of my head, I play them from pre off. I’ll work it out for you tomorrow.

Sorry, I meant as a trade rather than leaving it alll the way until the end so essentially LTD at HT, trade after goal. Also, I left out 2-2 score lines as only 2 of these and it's a 50/50 split. Always the same. If anything 2-2 is a great scoreline to back at HT if you can be bothered.

Richard - if it was 0-0 or 1-1, 2-2 at halftime there were 63 selection and 57 of them had a goal in the second half. so strike rate 90.47% if traded. Interestingly though if you left them to run then the strike rate would have only been 50.79%.

This is very good. What specifically were the results when 2-2 @ HT?

There were only 4 games that were 2-2 at halftime, 3 had a goal and one didnt.

Yeah I can see actually. It confirms my suspicion that 2-2 scorelines should be left alone. Small sample I know but I found this on the last lay coorrect score I looked at as well. I would imagine it will be the same for 3-3 or more too. So if you removed those so it's 53 winners and 5 losers at that point. 91.38%.

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@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer I’m not sure off the top of my head, I play them from pre off. I’ll work it out for you tomorrow.

Sorry, I meant as a trade rather than leaving it alll the way until the end so essentially LTD at HT, trade after goal. Also, I left out 2-2 score lines as only 2 of these and it's a 50/50 split. Always the same. If anything 2-2 is a great scoreline to back at HT if you can be bothered.

Richard - if it was 0-0 or 1-1, 2-2 at halftime there were 63 selection and 57 of them had a goal in the second half. so strike rate 90.47% if traded. Interestingly though if you left them to run then the strike rate would have only been 50.79%.

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer I’m not sure off the top of my head, I play them from pre off. I’ll work it out for you tomorrow.

Sorry, I meant as a trade rather than leaving it alll the way until the end so essentially LTD at HT, trade after goal. Also, I left out 2-2 score lines as only 2 of these and it's a 50/50 split. Always the same. If anything 2-2 is a great scoreline to back at HT if you can be bothered.

Richard - if it was 0-0 or 1-1, 2-2 at halftime there were 63 selection and 57 of them had a goal in the second half. so strike rate 90.47% if traded. Interestingly though if you left them to run then the strike rate would have only been 50.79%.

This is very good. What specifically were the results when 2-2 @ HT?

There were only 4 games that were 2-2 at halftime, 3 had a goal and one didnt.

Richard Latimer

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer I’m not sure off the top of my head, I play them from pre off. I’ll work it out for you tomorrow.

Sorry, I meant as a trade rather than leaving it alll the way until the end so essentially LTD at HT, trade after goal. Also, I left out 2-2 score lines as only 2 of these and it's a 50/50 split. Always the same. If anything 2-2 is a great scoreline to back at HT if you can be bothered.

Richard - if it was 0-0 or 1-1, 2-2 at halftime there were 63 selection and 57 of them had a goal in the second half. so strike rate 90.47% if traded. Interestingly though if you left them to run then the strike rate would have only been 50.79%.

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer I’m not sure off the top of my head, I play them from pre off. I’ll work it out for you tomorrow.

Sorry, I meant as a trade rather than leaving it alll the way until the end so essentially LTD at HT, trade after goal. Also, I left out 2-2 score lines as only 2 of these and it's a 50/50 split. Always the same. If anything 2-2 is a great scoreline to back at HT if you can be bothered.

Richard - if it was 0-0 or 1-1, 2-2 at halftime there were 63 selection and 57 of them had a goal in the second half. so strike rate 90.47% if traded. Interestingly though if you left them to run then the strike rate would have only been 50.79%.

This is very good. What specifically were the results when 2-2 @ HT?

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@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer I’m not sure off the top of my head, I play them from pre off. I’ll work it out for you tomorrow.

Sorry, I meant as a trade rather than leaving it alll the way until the end so essentially LTD at HT, trade after goal. Also, I left out 2-2 score lines as only 2 of these and it's a 50/50 split. Always the same. If anything 2-2 is a great scoreline to back at HT if you can be bothered.

Richard - if it was 0-0 or 1-1, 2-2 at halftime there were 63 selection and 57 of them had a goal in the second half. so strike rate 90.47% if traded. Interestingly though if you left them to run then the strike rate would have only been 50.79%.

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Two for today:

0_1558343609942_efb4e86b-ace7-4fa2-8878-57850b7d08e2-image.png Sweden Allsvenskan Goteborg v Hammarby
Iceland Pepsideild Hafnarfjordur v Valur

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Pretty mixed weekend on these! Latest Results (sheet is also updated).

239 selections
186 winners as set and forget
Strike rate 77.82%
228 winners if traded
Strike rate for traded 95.39%
Profit to level stakes 35.45 points
Yield 5%
ROI 106.35%

0_1558342975372_ad808da2-1437-4564-94c8-2b4f3c1bba53-image.png

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@Chris-Watts I have another angle which may improve things. Interested to see what it does to your selections. How many times has a bet been ruined by one of the teams (or both) going rogue and having a man (or more) sent to the stands??!

I always wondered if it could be used for anything and now I think it could. Ratings for dirty play. The lower the number on both positive and negative the higher my s/r goes.

Cuts selections in half but going up 3 on either side improves things to almost 90% for me so far. So far being the operative words.

Richard Latimer

@Chris-Watts I have another angle which may improve things. Interested to see what it does to your selections. How many times has a bet been ruined by one of the teams (or both) going rogue and having a man (or more) sent to the stands??!

I always wondered if it could be used for anything and now I think it could. Ratings for dirty play. The lower the number on both positive and negative the higher my s/r goes.

Richard Latimer

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer I’m not sure off the top of my head, I play them from pre off. I’ll work it out for you tomorrow.

Sorry, I meant as a trade rather than leaving it alll the way until the end so essentially LTD at HT, trade after goal. Also, I left out 2-2 score lines as only 2 of these and it's a 50/50 split. Always the same. If anything 2-2 is a great scoreline to back at HT if you can be bothered.

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@richard-latimer I’m not sure off the top of my head, I play them from pre off. I’ll work it out for you tomorrow.

Richard Latimer

@Chris-Watts What is your s/r for LTD from HT if you don't mind me asking? Of course odds for this way lower and almost every trade should work at as profit of some description regardless of which team goes ahead.

I have 28 winners
4 losers
87.5% s/r

Richard Latimer

I'm going to look to trade these. Today has been quite painful. Might go in at ht. Will look at stats later. Last week or so my trading has actually been much more successful.

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1 win 1 loss
I forgot to check: in Belgium was the last game of the season, Genk has already won the title.

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My selections for today.

Genk v St. Liege
Parma v Fiorentina

Plenty of choice but not much time available today.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

Here's hoping for a better day tomorrow with no betfair screw ups. Selections updated on sheet and start in a little over half hour - MLS.

Poor start to events last night with a late late goal coming in the Kansas City match. Looks like another game lost to a red card though.

Plenty of time to make it up today and all leagues look to be credible ones. Talking of leagues I'm not known for knee jerk reactions (ha!) but I've taken Thailand out of the mix from here on.

Richard Latimer

Here's hoping for a better day tomorrow with no betfair screw ups. Selections updated on sheet and start in a little over half hour - MLS.

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A couple of wins on paper. I had to give up in the afternoon due to the problems Betfair experienced.
I'll try tomorrow with a minimum stake and see how it goes.