"The Good Day" LTD system
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@dave-jessop Yeah I get the same. Shouldn’t be too much of an issue on most games
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@chris-watts Worth laying these on Smarkets, prices are usually the same on most of these games, 5% commission saving is a big difference over time
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Trading List 01/04/19
Sweden Allsvenskan Malmo FF v Hacken
Sweden Superettan Brage v Frej
Netherlands Eerste Divisie Sparta Rotterdam v Maastricht
Netherlands Eerste Divisie Den Bosch v Jong PSV
Netherlands Eerste Divisie Nijmegen v Jong Ajax
France Ligue 1 St Etienne v Nimes -
@chris-watts very well played sir!
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@lee-woodman said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@chris-watts I did, just small stakes. I dropped the playoff game so it was 2 out of 2
Nice one, 11 out of 11 since Friday including the two play offs. I’ll update the sheet tomorrow.
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@chris-watts I did, just small stakes. I dropped the playoff game so it was 2 out of 2
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@Lee-woodman did you play these today Lee?
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@chris-watts probably!
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@chris-watts I will do buddy, I will do some digging around it and see what I can spot
I've always wanted to get something lined up with the ratings - played around with them and the asian handicap to no avail.@Adam-Williams will know if we can do that, I am not sure if we can, he will clear it up though
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@ryan-carruthers give me a shout if you have any questions. A lot of the output is around me trying to quantify the edge. The Archie scores and so on. It was a first attempt so not entirely sure the maths is correct but my estimation is that as long as the average lay odds is under 4.16 it would be profitable. At least over this sample anyway!
Was thinking we could download the ratings from historical matches and populate to back test?
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@chris-watts 5 out 5 today!
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@martin-futter presumably it could be back tested fairly easily as it’s driven from the ratings?
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@lee-woodman said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@chris-watts Ah right ok, that makes sense then
Match Time Country League Match Type Match ELO DIFF Home Offense Home Defense Away Offense Away Defense Goal Exp
30/03/2019 15:00 England League Two Normal Tranmere v Carlisle 60 0.789 -0.531 0.746 -0.61 2.6
30/03/2019 17:30 England Premier League Normal West Ham v Everton -36 0.698 -0.692 0.683 -0.611 2.7
30/03/2019 18:00 Switzerland Super League Normal Sion v Zurich -22 0.812 -0.647 0.653 -0.529 2.72
30/03/2019 19:30 Belgium Jupiler League Normal Genk v Anderlecht 39 1.312 -0.179 0.956 -0.306 2.68
30/03/2019 19:30 Ireland Division 1 Normal Longford v Shelbourne -54 1.019 -0.454 1.099 -0.243 2.54
31/03/2019 13:30 Belgium Jupiler League Playoff St. Truiden v Charleroi 5 1.019 -0.502 0.798 -0.712 3.06
31/03/2019 14:00 Italy Serie A Normal AS Roma v Napoli -95 1.128 -0.507 1.195 -0.131 2.59
31/03/2019 16:30 England Premier League Normal Liverpool v Tottenham 61 1.423 0.147 1.217 -0.443 2.67Just one note on this - would probably drop the play off game.
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@lee-woodman nice one Lee!
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@martin-futter yeah I’ve been treating it as set and forget currently but it could be traded too. Strike rate is circa 76% across the first 300 selections or so. ROI 4-5%.
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@chris-watts Ah right ok, that makes sense then
Match Time Country League Match Type Match ELO DIFF Home Offense Home Defense Away Offense Away Defense Goal Exp
30/03/2019 15:00 England League Two Normal Tranmere v Carlisle 60 0.789 -0.531 0.746 -0.61 2.6
30/03/2019 17:30 England Premier League Normal West Ham v Everton -36 0.698 -0.692 0.683 -0.611 2.7
30/03/2019 18:00 Switzerland Super League Normal Sion v Zurich -22 0.812 -0.647 0.653 -0.529 2.72
30/03/2019 19:30 Belgium Jupiler League Normal Genk v Anderlecht 39 1.312 -0.179 0.956 -0.306 2.68
30/03/2019 19:30 Ireland Division 1 Normal Longford v Shelbourne -54 1.019 -0.454 1.099 -0.243 2.54
31/03/2019 13:30 Belgium Jupiler League Playoff St. Truiden v Charleroi 5 1.019 -0.502 0.798 -0.712 3.06
31/03/2019 14:00 Italy Serie A Normal AS Roma v Napoli -95 1.128 -0.507 1.195 -0.131 2.59
31/03/2019 16:30 England Premier League Normal Liverpool v Tottenham 61 1.423 0.147 1.217 -0.443 2.67 -
@lee-woodman the offence numbers are a measure of how much better the teams attack is than the average defence. The defence numbers are shown as a negative and represent the same proinciple I.e how much better it is than the average offence. So for this system I’m looking for the positive number (offence) to be larger than the negative number (defence).
In the example you mentioned below if the defence number had been -1.001 or something similar it wouldn’t have qualified as a trade because the defence is stronger than the opposite offence.
Does that help?
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@chris-watts Not sure i can help as Im still not sure about the Offense/defense ratings
For Eg, Sheff United vs Bristol. ELO difference of 91, goal exp 2.52...so thats within those filters. Home offense is 0.926, home def is -0.376, away offense is 0.604 and away defense is -0.606
