"The Good Day" LTD system
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@chris-watts I am up for taking a couple of months to get back through and help out matey
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@lee-woodman The sheet marked lay strategies 2019 just goes back to last Friday! but the other sheet labelled data sample goes back about 18mths I was recording it as and when I had time on and off. Adam has said that the ratings can be downloaded retrospectively so we could in theory download a month at a time and populate the sheet to back test it properly.
Alternatively we can just continue forward looking as it generates so many selections that the data will quickly accumulate anyway.
To be honest I don't have the time to download and back test currently, i'm actually off to Amsterdam for in a couple of hours and wont be back online for until Friday.
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@chris-watts Im liking this Chris! How far back do the results go?
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@chris-watts Smashing day yesterday smart this!!
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Sheet updated with yesterdays results, 2 out of 3 for set and forget (3/3 if traded). 28 winners from the last 34 selections, strike rate 82.35%, 11.1 points profit and a 12% ROI.
Todays selections:
South Korea K League 1 Suwon Bluewings v Sangju Sangmu
South Korea K League 1 Pohang v Gangwon
Belgium Jupiler League Gent v St. Liege
South Korea K League 1 Incheon v Daegu
Japan J-league Division 2 Chiba v RyukyuIf any of the games are not in play on the exchange you can back it in the double chance market on the sportsbook - its the same thing.
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@chris-watts Re downloading the ratings, there are date filters on the Ratings page that will let you search historical ratings and then download them. You might need to download a month at a time or so though as there will be a lot of data and you may get an error if you try and do too much in one go.
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@gary-finnigan said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@lee-woodman said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@gary-finnigan Probably due to limited liability and/or if they game isnt going in play (obviously not an issue for 'set and forget' but it probably does indicate lack of liability)
Could understand torquay game as only £450 matched so far , but verona v brescia game £5k matched already and according to betfair is going inplay
At 5k matched though my liability could be as much as 10% of the market! Not a position I want to be in on lower league games.
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@gary-finnigan hi Gary, purely because I don’t like those leagues. I tend to filter out lower leagues from practically all countries on the basis of liquidity and a lack of knowledge on my part about teams, motivation. In the case of serie B I just don’t trust them!
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@lee-woodman said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@gary-finnigan Probably due to limited liability and/or if they game isnt going in play (obviously not an issue for 'set and forget' but it probably does indicate lack of liability)
Could understand torquay game as only £450 matched so far , but verona v brescia game £5k matched already and according to betfair is going inplay
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@gary-finnigan Probably due to limited liability and/or if they game isnt going in play (obviously not an issue for 'set and forget' but it probably does indicate lack of liability)
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@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
Sheet updated following yesterdays results. Todays selections:
This continues to tick along quite nicely with 26 winners from the last 31 selections. Hovering around an 84% strike rate with average lay odds of 3.8. Thats 11.7 points profit to level stakes and a 14% ROI.
Obviously still a tiny sample size but I'm optimistic about the way its going so far. This isnt the sort of trading I normally do, typically im quite active during games taking different positions and moving profits around (sometimes too much!) so this as a set and forget strategy is quite new for me.Eredivisie Vitesse v AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie Heracles v Willem II
League Two Oldham v Tranmere@Chris-Watts any reason why torquay v chelsmford and verona v brescia , didnt qualify, they seem to be in the correct range for the filter. Unless there is other criteria that ive missed. Thanks
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Looks to be a decent SR on LTD at HT if 0-0 (26 out of 91) aswell but obviously a bigger sample will indicate if its viable
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@chris-watts maximising the opportunities is the fun bit!
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@dave-jessop said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
Sheet updated following yesterdays results. Todays selections:
This continues to tick along quite nicely with 26 winners from the last 31 selections. Hovering around an 84% strike rate with average lay odds of 3.8. Thats 11.7 points profit to level stakes and a 14% ROI.
Obviously still a tiny sample size but I'm optimistic about the way its going so far. This isnt the sort of trading I normally do, typically im quite active during games taking different positions and moving profits around (sometimes too much!) so this as a set and forget strategy is quite new for me.Eredivisie Vitesse v AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie Heracles v Willem II
League Two Oldham v TranmereLike I said yesterday I was greening up after a goal so will be interesting to compare the two strategies for ROI - obviously my SR will be higher because I'm not letting them run to the end - I'm sure both version will make a long term profit
That's the beauty of trading! lots of ways to profit! - i'm fairly confident the rationale will prove to be a good mechanism for match selection. The only bit im not sure about yet is how to maximize the opportunities!
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@ryan-carruthers I've emailed you the sheets buddy, im online for the next hour or two so let me know if you need anything else. Interested to see what you can spot! I think im going blind looking at all the data
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Sheet updated following yesterdays results. Todays selections:
This continues to tick along quite nicely with 26 winners from the last 31 selections. Hovering around an 84% strike rate with average lay odds of 3.8. Thats 11.7 points profit to level stakes and a 14% ROI.
Obviously still a tiny sample size but I'm optimistic about the way its going so far. This isnt the sort of trading I normally do, typically im quite active during games taking different positions and moving profits around (sometimes too much!) so this as a set and forget strategy is quite new for me.Eredivisie Vitesse v AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie Heracles v Willem II
League Two Oldham v Tranmere -
@dave-jessop said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
100% today again - unless anyone traded for a loss when Nimes went in front
Not quite mate, the Malmo game ended up 1-1. Still 5/6 though and 84%. I’ll take that, at an 84% strike rate anything later below 6.25 is profitable!
I’m sure some variance will kick in at some point!
