"The Good Day" LTD system
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@lee-woodman Cheers buddy!
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@stuart-rozzier You sir are a good egg!!
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04/04/2019 18:30 Spain Laliga Normal Sevilla v Alaves
04/04/2019 19:30 Belgium Jupiler League Normal Anderlecht v Club Brugge KV -
Hi guys...just wanted to say I can't help cause its a bit above my skill set at the moment....but I am loving the thread and just wanted to show my support and share my thanks for your efforts...This is why I like BTC more than others....everyone eager to share ideas and jump in and help.
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@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
Thanks guys, appreciate working on this with you! right, I really need to hit the airport, catch you later!
Have fun!
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Thanks guys, appreciate working on this with you! right, I really need to hit the airport, catch you later!
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In fact thats without filtering out the illiquid leagues
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@James-H @Ryan-Carruthers @Lee-woodman I've added a back test clean sheet in the OP guys. I've left the first line in from the current data so the formulas can just be copied down. I download the ratings and then cut out the data not needed and then copy it to the transfer sheet and then just copy the formulas down the required number of rows in the results sheet and they should auto populate.
Ill take October and Nov 2018.
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@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@ryan-carruthers Yeah, what do you reckon? shall we take last quarter 2018 and do October, November and December or even first q 2019 and just backfill Jan, Feb and March so we have a full YTD 2019?
There should be 125-150 (ballpark) per month so if we do 6 then it covers a good sample and should smooth out variance (winter breaks, transfer windows etc etc). It should give us a decent sample in terms of volume and in length of time also, without overkilling it
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http://www.football-data.co.uk/blog/P-value_calculator.xlsx
I use this P-value calculator quite a lot to see how many bets I need to place before I can be sure that something is profitable - most of it is explained in the document linked.
Seems like average lay odds are around 2.38 so the equivalent back odds would be 1.36. For the 4.25% yield that you have, you'd need around 500 bets to be almost certain that it's profitable.
Not sure how long it would take to have a sample of 500 but that's what I'd recommend.
Hope that makes sense - I'm better at using that spreadsheet than explaining it!
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@chris-watts That would work I think, @Lee-woodman @James-H what you guys think?
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@ryan-carruthers Yeah, what do you reckon? shall we take last quarter 2018 and do October, November and December or even first q 2019 and just backfill Jan, Feb and March so we have a full YTD 2019?
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@lee-woodman said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@chris-watts Are you online whilst you are away or do you want me to post the selections up?
Im not sure mate, will depend on the meetings and work I have on whilst im over there. Will hopefully be able to get online at some point but feel free to post them up.
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@james-h Great, thanks James - I've got to dash off to the airport now but ill try to post a clean worksheet up in the next few days.
I think its worth doing the backtest to ensure we're looking at clean and concurrent data - when I started this it was one of several ideas I was trying out from the ratings, there was an overs idea, a lay the away team idea, three versions of LTD too! ultimately it became too much and i ended up dipping into each of them when I had time. That means the data is not date continuous and its possible that I just dropped luck on the good days/weeks/months - it seems unlikely but its worth ruling it out before putting this into action on any bigger scale.
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@chris-watts Are you online whilst you are away or do you want me to post the selections up?
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@chris-watts There you go everything you needed in a matter of 5 mins
agree with @Lee-woodman its a case of how far we go back though. -
@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@ryan-carruthers Nice one thanks! if we can take a couple of months each we should get to a 1000 selections fairly easily. Do you think that would be a sufficient sample size to ascertain where this is at? @Lee-woodman do you fancy joining in this and taking a couple of months also?
I can email you guys blank sheets and we could consolidate after?
happy to help with this too mate, seems like a really good system.
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@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@ryan-carruthers Nice one thanks! if we can take a couple of months each we should get to a 1000 selections fairly easily. Do you think that would be a sufficient sample size to ascertain where this is at? @Lee-woodman do you fancy joining in this and taking a couple of months also?
I can email you guys blank sheets and we could consolidate after?
Yeah of course, i dont mind
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@ryan-carruthers Nice one thanks! if we can take a couple of months each we should get to a 1000 selections fairly easily. Do you think that would be a sufficient sample size to ascertain where this is at? @Lee-woodman do you fancy joining in this and taking a couple of months also?
I can email you guys blank sheets and we could consolidate after?
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@chris-watts I dont mind doing a few months aswell but if you have already gone back a decent amount of time then its questionable how far back you go and whether it is actually worth it. The majority of the information is quick, but the actual results would have to be manual.
The results and therefore data will rack up quite quickly going forward so maybe this is the best option
