Simplest Set & Forget strategy in the history of BTC
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Hello everyone !
I am trading and sharing the strategy that got me banned from Bet365. The simplest strategy on BTC.
Strategy: back the draw in every EPL Game
My Spready will be attached weekly.
Football Profit & Loss Spreadsheet.xlsx -
@Samuel-Barrett Not sure if you have seen this website but shows average SR on draws for all global leagues for numerous years
https://www.progressivebetting.co.uk/statistics/football_statistics/leagues-over-25/
Good place to start but clearly you need average odds and ideally average odds for winners.
I’ve been tracking a few other leagues recently. The Swiss super league interestingly is the one that seems to be flagging as the biggest opportunity outside of the leagues you are already working with. Decent odds and reasonable SR so far
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@Samuel-Barrett that's outstanding! Agree with multiple leagues you are hopefully removing some variance there. Not surprised RE: Serie B. Might be worth looking at Spain 2nd league, the draw odds can be short there but for good reason.
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Decent month this month with 67 points profit
Serie A was -61.01 points down at the beginning of the month so a good recovery to -19.22
Serie B now the best performing league out of the 5, but definitely helping having multiple leagues, as they tend to even each other out, when one has a dip another has a spike!
As ever, each trade is 2% of the months starting bank - so stakes upped to 4.5 (although feeling a bit dubious about this as a few results the wrong way could really dent the profit)
When looking for value it looks like median odds are the ones to assess against currently as opposed to average odds
Link to sheet is here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fsu5gIQJlhJ3RBTKjS7lW550LHqQmjEGG3aMU7YqpQE/edit?usp=sharing
Thanks again to @Jonathan-McDaid for the original strategy - have started using ChatGPT to start looking for some potential summer leagues to see where this would best work
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@Andy-Donnelly that's a great point when the dominant teams play the minnows in these leagues where gaps between haves and have nots are huge, the only plus side perhaps is better back odds
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Yeh good work everyone on this thread. Definitely taken a closer interest in this recently myself.
Did a bit of analysis and for anyone trading the Portuguese found that there is a strong case for removing home matches of Benfica, Porto and Sporting unless they are playing each other.
Over the last 3 and a half seasons there were just a combined total of 8 draws in a total of 159 such matches. So just 5% SR, you would need odds of 20.0 to break even.
There is also a case to lay the draw in those instances but won’t be for everyone and won’t scale as easily due to the likely odds range being somewhere around 9.0 on average.
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@Shannon-Townsend said in Simplest Set & Forget strategy in the history of BTC:
good night in the premier league for the draw backers
Yes and guess what....Juve drew twice more in the 10 days since my comment about them
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good night in the premier league for the draw backers
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@Jonathan-McDaid amazing really isn't it! how much could we have made backing Juve to draw all Serie A games this season?
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Good Morning !
Updated Spready attached both still nicely heading north.
Trading P+L.xlsx -
@Samuel-Barrett thanks for the update, good work!
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Better month in December with a 34 point profit
Serie A and Ligue 1 continue to be losing, but this is made up by the Prem and Serie B. Liga Portugal made a really good recovery in December, starting the month on -29.3 and ending on 25.18!
Have been paper trading laying the draw in Serie A since the 26th October and with a 1 point stake would now be up to 14.79
As with each month am staking 2% of my monthly starting bank, so stakes increased this month
Link to sheet is here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fsu5gIQJlhJ3RBTKjS7lW550LHqQmjEGG3aMU7YqpQE/edit?usp=sharing
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Hi Everyone,
Attached are my current results EPL got to doubling my bank but faded a bit late I will look to increase my stakes to $10 (2%) with a winning week this weekend. Portugal is starting to bounce back after a couple of tough weeks.Trading P+L.xlsx -
Losing month, but still up overall. 2% stake reduced for December
As before, am only putting real stakes on the Prem - that and Serie B are both still absolutely flying with the two together 115 points up since I started in the middle of September.
The Premiership including Liverpool and Man City - 30 points up
The Premiership without Liverpool and Man City - 49 points uphttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fsu5gIQJlhJ3RBTKjS7lW550LHqQmjEGG3aMU7YqpQE/edit?usp=sharing
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@Samuel-Barrett Be aware, if you use SMarkets or Matchbook for backing stuff theres a better than average chance youll lose your 0% commission. That promotion is for matched betting and while theyll allow the occasional back for mistakes, or to cash out of 2ups they dont like repeated use. Matchbook especially is very strict on it....
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@Jonathan-McDaid I'm using Smarkets as I've still got a MB account so get 0% commission. Liquidity is pretty good - never any issues so far.
Serie A is killing me though! Have resorted back to paper trading that but am still tracking in my results. My thoughts were to have 5 leagues so that if one league has a down turn then the others should cover it.
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Hello Everyone,
Weekly update attached nothing much in the EPL it was a break even week and portugal had a small Loss Trading P+L.xlsx -
@Samuel-Barrett Wow Serie B is massive well done on spotting that !
Do you have any problems with Liquidity? -
Here's mine for the end of October
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fsu5gIQJlhJ3RBTKjS7lW550LHqQmjEGG3aMU7YqpQE/edit?usp=sharing
46 points up since September when I saw the original post. Serie A is looking a bit ropey - but Serie B has had an amazing week - 9 draws since Monday!
Am using 2% of my total bank each month
Thanks again @Jonathan-McDaid for the original post!
