Simplest Set & Forget strategy in the history of BTC
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Hello everyone !
I am trading and sharing the strategy that got me banned from Bet365. The simplest strategy on BTC.
Strategy: back the draw in every EPL Game
My Spready will be attached weekly.
Football Profit & Loss Spreadsheet.xlsx -
Chapecoense lost
1.30. Brasil. Cuiaba. 25.37 -
Villa Nova lost
23 Brazil Chapecoense 17.58 -
Huachipato lost
01.35 Brazil Villa Nova 13 -
Usikteen lost
00.00 Chile Huachipato 10.92 -
Tukum lost
Sweden usiktenn 7 -
Correction Deportes lost
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Tenico lost
16.00 Latvia Tukum 5.6 -
Tenico lost
22.30. Chile. Deportes Temuco. 5.77
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Chroby lost
19. Ecu Tenaco. 4.92 -
Sirius lost
16 Poland Chrnhy Glogow 3.46
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To be successful in backing draws you really need a progression system. If you take the median draw price as 9-4 then this equates to 30% of matches ending in a draw. In the past people have used a progression of 1.5 i.e. raising the stake by 1.5 until you have a winner.
If you had a sequence of 10 losers the stakes, starting with 2, would be 2,3,4.5,6.25, 9.38, 14.06, 21.09, 31.64, 47.46, 71.19 giving a total of 210.57. The return on a stake of 71.19 would be 231.37. This means you would win 20.5 on a system which is successful around a third of the expected value. This definitely represents an opportunity.
There are of course potential problems. You cannot place the bet until the result of the previous game is known. Italian leagues normally have 33% of matches drawn but as many as four can kick off at the same time or within a two hour time frame. You need to have a method of dealing with this.
I have been looking at the Football Ratings data and have selected matches that have an home and away ELO within 1% of each other as this is strongly indicative of a drawn game. If games kick off within 2 hours of each other then I pick the one with the smallest difference. This would mean missing a lot of games in the winter which kick off at 3 on a Saturday. You have to do something and attempts to run systems side by side quickly become complicated so I have kept it simple. I also make an allowance if the bookmaker has a high or low draw price.
I find the 1.5 progression system too risky a use one adapted from the Fibonacci Series. 2,3,4,5,6,8,10,13,16,21,26,34,42,55,68. This is 16 stakes with a total of 313. If 15 lose and the last one wins then the return is 221. If I win I go back four places until I show a profit.
I started yesterday an results were
Jeju 2.05 lost
Kjelsas 2.46 lost
Sandvikn 3.75 lost
Club Lujan 6.25 won on Blair 10.82
Profit 10.82 - 8.26 =2.56 2.56
Parto Preta 2.02 lost
San Diego 2.55 won on Blair 7.07 profit 7.07-2.02 =5.05
Total win for day 7.61I then increase standard stake by proportion of win i.e 7.61/313 so new stake 2.05
Today’s selections
- Sw. Sirius
- Pol. Chrobry Glogow
16 kaz. Aktobe - eliminate
19 Ecu Technico
19 Ser Mladost - eliminate
22.30 Deportes Temnico
I do not know if the ratings can change during the day but Sirius is the first
13 Sweden Alls Sirius stake 1.81
As I said above I amend the stake to take account of median bookmaker prices, for Sirius draw this is 2.55.
I calculate what the return would be for 2.25 i.e. 4.6125 and divide by 2.55. -
February was a shocking month with all the profits from previous months wiped out. I think for next season flat staking would be the way to go, rather than 2% of the bank each month.
However, that was my challenge, so staking back to 2%
Serie A and Liga Portugal both still in profit
But the Prem has fallen right off
Will see what March brings!
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@Samuel-Barrett Not sure if you have seen this website but shows average SR on draws for all global leagues for numerous years
https://www.progressivebetting.co.uk/statistics/football_statistics/leagues-over-25/
Good place to start but clearly you need average odds and ideally average odds for winners.
I’ve been tracking a few other leagues recently. The Swiss super league interestingly is the one that seems to be flagging as the biggest opportunity outside of the leagues you are already working with. Decent odds and reasonable SR so far
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@Samuel-Barrett that's outstanding! Agree with multiple leagues you are hopefully removing some variance there. Not surprised RE: Serie B. Might be worth looking at Spain 2nd league, the draw odds can be short there but for good reason.
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Decent month this month with 67 points profit
Serie A was -61.01 points down at the beginning of the month so a good recovery to -19.22
Serie B now the best performing league out of the 5, but definitely helping having multiple leagues, as they tend to even each other out, when one has a dip another has a spike!
As ever, each trade is 2% of the months starting bank - so stakes upped to 4.5 (although feeling a bit dubious about this as a few results the wrong way could really dent the profit)
When looking for value it looks like median odds are the ones to assess against currently as opposed to average odds
Link to sheet is here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fsu5gIQJlhJ3RBTKjS7lW550LHqQmjEGG3aMU7YqpQE/edit?usp=sharing
Thanks again to @Jonathan-McDaid for the original strategy - have started using ChatGPT to start looking for some potential summer leagues to see where this would best work
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@Andy-Donnelly that's a great point when the dominant teams play the minnows in these leagues where gaps between haves and have nots are huge, the only plus side perhaps is better back odds
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Yeh good work everyone on this thread. Definitely taken a closer interest in this recently myself.
Did a bit of analysis and for anyone trading the Portuguese found that there is a strong case for removing home matches of Benfica, Porto and Sporting unless they are playing each other.
Over the last 3 and a half seasons there were just a combined total of 8 draws in a total of 159 such matches. So just 5% SR, you would need odds of 20.0 to break even.
There is also a case to lay the draw in those instances but won’t be for everyone and won’t scale as easily due to the likely odds range being somewhere around 9.0 on average.
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@Shannon-Townsend said in Simplest Set & Forget strategy in the history of BTC:
good night in the premier league for the draw backers
Yes and guess what....Juve drew twice more in the 10 days since my comment about them
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good night in the premier league for the draw backers
