Simplest Set & Forget strategy in the history of BTC
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Hello everyone !
I am trading and sharing the strategy that got me banned from Bet365. The simplest strategy on BTC.
Strategy: back the draw in every EPL Game
My Spready will be attached weekly.
Football Profit & Loss Spreadsheet.xlsx -
Lost
Next two middle of the night so will share1.15 Argentina U Santa Fe 34
3.30 San Diego 34 -
Lost
18.00 Hungary. Ujpest 48.79 -
Lost sorry about late report
Fin Jazz Pori 27.52
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@Alex-Rendell what other approaches does he have?
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@Tom-Horridge sounds very similar to an approach used by the Math Bet Man
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A winner would be nice but still time.
Worked for me over the years and with a bank as low as 313 you can live with a few wipeouts as winnings when they occur are high. -
Cuiaba lost
18 Ger Regional. Ansbach 25.52 -
Chapecoense lost
1.30. Brasil. Cuiaba. 25.37 -
Villa Nova lost
23 Brazil Chapecoense 17.58 -
Huachipato lost
01.35 Brazil Villa Nova 13 -
Usikteen lost
00.00 Chile Huachipato 10.92 -
Tukum lost
Sweden usiktenn 7 -
Correction Deportes lost
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Tenico lost
16.00 Latvia Tukum 5.6 -
Tenico lost
22.30. Chile. Deportes Temuco. 5.77
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Chroby lost
19. Ecu Tenaco. 4.92 -
Sirius lost
16 Poland Chrnhy Glogow 3.46
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To be successful in backing draws you really need a progression system. If you take the median draw price as 9-4 then this equates to 30% of matches ending in a draw. In the past people have used a progression of 1.5 i.e. raising the stake by 1.5 until you have a winner.
If you had a sequence of 10 losers the stakes, starting with 2, would be 2,3,4.5,6.25, 9.38, 14.06, 21.09, 31.64, 47.46, 71.19 giving a total of 210.57. The return on a stake of 71.19 would be 231.37. This means you would win 20.5 on a system which is successful around a third of the expected value. This definitely represents an opportunity.
There are of course potential problems. You cannot place the bet until the result of the previous game is known. Italian leagues normally have 33% of matches drawn but as many as four can kick off at the same time or within a two hour time frame. You need to have a method of dealing with this.
I have been looking at the Football Ratings data and have selected matches that have an home and away ELO within 1% of each other as this is strongly indicative of a drawn game. If games kick off within 2 hours of each other then I pick the one with the smallest difference. This would mean missing a lot of games in the winter which kick off at 3 on a Saturday. You have to do something and attempts to run systems side by side quickly become complicated so I have kept it simple. I also make an allowance if the bookmaker has a high or low draw price.
I find the 1.5 progression system too risky a use one adapted from the Fibonacci Series. 2,3,4,5,6,8,10,13,16,21,26,34,42,55,68. This is 16 stakes with a total of 313. If 15 lose and the last one wins then the return is 221. If I win I go back four places until I show a profit.
I started yesterday an results were
Jeju 2.05 lost
Kjelsas 2.46 lost
Sandvikn 3.75 lost
Club Lujan 6.25 won on Blair 10.82
Profit 10.82 - 8.26 =2.56 2.56
Parto Preta 2.02 lost
San Diego 2.55 won on Blair 7.07 profit 7.07-2.02 =5.05
Total win for day 7.61I then increase standard stake by proportion of win i.e 7.61/313 so new stake 2.05
Today’s selections
- Sw. Sirius
- Pol. Chrobry Glogow
16 kaz. Aktobe - eliminate
19 Ecu Technico
19 Ser Mladost - eliminate
22.30 Deportes Temnico
I do not know if the ratings can change during the day but Sirius is the first
13 Sweden Alls Sirius stake 1.81
As I said above I amend the stake to take account of median bookmaker prices, for Sirius draw this is 2.55.
I calculate what the return would be for 2.25 i.e. 4.6125 and divide by 2.55.
