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Simplest Set & Forget strategy in the history of BTC

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Football Trading
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  • J Offline
    J Offline
    Jonathan McDaid
    wrote on last edited by
    #1

    Hello everyone !
    I am trading and sharing the strategy that got me banned from Bet365. The simplest strategy on BTC.
    Strategy: back the draw in every EPL Game
    My Spready will be attached weekly.
    Football Profit & Loss Spreadsheet.xlsx

    RyanR A 2 Replies Last reply
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  • T Offline
    T Offline
    Tom Horridge
    wrote last edited by
    #2

    Lost sorry about late report

    Fin Jazz Pori 27.52

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    replied to Alex Rendell last edited by
    #3

    @Alex-Rendell what other approaches does he have?

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Alex Rendell
    replied to Tom Horridge last edited by
    #4

    @Tom-Horridge sounds very similar to an approach used by the Math Bet Man 👀

    RyanR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • T Offline
    T Offline
    Tom Horridge
    wrote last edited by
    #5

    A winner would be nice but still time.
    Worked for me over the years and with a bank as low as 313 you can live with a few wipeouts as winnings when they occur are high.

    A 1 Reply Last reply
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  • T Offline
    T Offline
    Tom Horridge
    wrote last edited by
    #6

    Cuiaba lost
    18 Ger Regional. Ansbach 25.52

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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    wrote last edited by
    #7

    This is an interesting read this, very very detailed.

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • T Offline
    T Offline
    Tom Horridge
    wrote last edited by
    #8

    Chapecoense lost
    1.30. Brasil. Cuiaba. 25.37

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  • T Offline
    T Offline
    Tom Horridge
    wrote last edited by
    #9

    Villa Nova lost
    23 Brazil Chapecoense 17.58

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  • T Offline
    T Offline
    Tom Horridge
    wrote last edited by
    #10

    Huachipato lost
    01.35 Brazil Villa Nova 13

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  • T Offline
    T Offline
    Tom Horridge
    wrote last edited by
    #11

    Usikteen lost
    00.00 Chile Huachipato 10.92

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  • T Offline
    T Offline
    Tom Horridge
    wrote last edited by
    #12

    Tukum lost
    Sweden usiktenn 7

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  • T Offline
    T Offline
    Tom Horridge
    wrote last edited by
    #13

    Correction Deportes lost

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • T Offline
    T Offline
    Tom Horridge
    wrote last edited by
    #14

    Tenico lost
    16.00 Latvia Tukum 5.6

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  • T Offline
    T Offline
    Tom Horridge
    wrote last edited by
    #15

    Tenico lost

    22.30. Chile. Deportes Temuco. 5.77

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  • T Offline
    T Offline
    Tom Horridge
    wrote last edited by
    #16

    Chroby lost
    19. Ecu Tenaco. 4.92

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  • T Offline
    T Offline
    Tom Horridge
    wrote last edited by
    #17

    Sirius lost

    16 Poland Chrnhy Glogow 3.46

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  • T Offline
    T Offline
    Tom Horridge
    wrote last edited by
    #18

    To be successful in backing draws you really need a progression system. If you take the median draw price as 9-4 then this equates to 30% of matches ending in a draw. In the past people have used a progression of 1.5 i.e. raising the stake by 1.5 until you have a winner.

    If you had a sequence of 10 losers the stakes, starting with 2, would be 2,3,4.5,6.25, 9.38, 14.06, 21.09, 31.64, 47.46, 71.19 giving a total of 210.57. The return on a stake of 71.19 would be 231.37. This means you would win 20.5 on a system which is successful around a third of the expected value. This definitely represents an opportunity.

    There are of course potential problems. You cannot place the bet until the result of the previous game is known. Italian leagues normally have 33% of matches drawn but as many as four can kick off at the same time or within a two hour time frame. You need to have a method of dealing with this.

    I have been looking at the Football Ratings data and have selected matches that have an home and away ELO within 1% of each other as this is strongly indicative of a drawn game. If games kick off within 2 hours of each other then I pick the one with the smallest difference. This would mean missing a lot of games in the winter which kick off at 3 on a Saturday. You have to do something and attempts to run systems side by side quickly become complicated so I have kept it simple. I also make an allowance if the bookmaker has a high or low draw price.

    I find the 1.5 progression system too risky a use one adapted from the Fibonacci Series. 2,3,4,5,6,8,10,13,16,21,26,34,42,55,68. This is 16 stakes with a total of 313. If 15 lose and the last one wins then the return is 221. If I win I go back four places until I show a profit.

    I started yesterday an results were
    Jeju 2.05 lost
    Kjelsas 2.46 lost
    Sandvikn 3.75 lost
    Club Lujan 6.25 won on Blair 10.82
    Profit 10.82 - 8.26 =2.56 2.56
    Parto Preta 2.02 lost
    San Diego 2.55 won on Blair 7.07 profit 7.07-2.02 =5.05
    Total win for day 7.61

    I then increase standard stake by proportion of win i.e 7.61/313 so new stake 2.05

    Today’s selections

    1. Sw. Sirius
    2. Pol. Chrobry Glogow
      16 kaz. Aktobe - eliminate
      19 Ecu Technico
      19 Ser Mladost - eliminate
      22.30 Deportes Temnico

    I do not know if the ratings can change during the day but Sirius is the first

    13 Sweden Alls Sirius stake 1.81

    As I said above I amend the stake to take account of median bookmaker prices, for Sirius draw this is 2.55.
    I calculate what the return would be for 2.25 i.e. 4.6125 and divide by 2.55.

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  • S Offline
    S Offline
    Samuel Barrett
    wrote on last edited by
    #19

    February was a shocking month with all the profits from previous months wiped out. I think for next season flat staking would be the way to go, rather than 2% of the bank each month.

    However, that was my challenge, so staking back to 2%

    e1237f52-48c5-4840-b325-cace101a5542-image.png

    Serie A and Liga Portugal both still in profit

    ab01c455-8bf1-4f23-a1d6-33b830d4c926-image.png

    56c0925f-709e-4493-ba03-5edf19886a6e-image.png

    But the Prem has fallen right off

    43df2571-b46f-4f13-abb2-585ee257c9db-image.png

    Will see what March brings!

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  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Andy Donnelly
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #20

    @Samuel-Barrett Not sure if you have seen this website but shows average SR on draws for all global leagues for numerous years

    https://www.progressivebetting.co.uk/statistics/football_statistics/leagues-over-25/

    Good place to start but clearly you need average odds and ideally average odds for winners.

    I’ve been tracking a few other leagues recently. The Swiss super league interestingly is the one that seems to be flagging as the biggest opportunity outside of the leagues you are already working with. Decent odds and reasonable SR so far

    1 Reply Last reply
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