Jon's FHG Strategy/Testing/Data collection
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Been away from BTC for a while, but now am back to continue my progress.
I like doing FHG, so thats what im working on. Created a new strategy while i was away from BTC and have been excited to get back and refine it with the filters, also getting your selections without having to research for 2-3 hours a day is awesome.My strategy is playing 2 markets against each other.
Lay the under 0.5 FHG for 1 point + small amount to cover comission say £10.21 on the Lay if £10 on the back to break even if just 1 FHG
Back the over 1.5 FHG for 1 pointMy filters find games where teams have more over 1.5 goals first half than 0-0 ht, i just narrow it down to the best stats, then cherry pick the best value regarding the odds on offer.
The filters are...
Ov. Matches Played>=6
Ov. H1 Over 0.5 %>=75
Ov. HT 0-0<4
Ov. H1 Over 1.5 >=3
Ov. FT Over 1.5 % >=70scope last 10 matches
restricted to current season
exclude playoffsTodays picks (please dont follow these, its just for testing at the moment)
Portsmouth have 11 over 1.5 FHG and just 1 0-0HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG 3.50 Back over 1.5 FHG 2.82Wuppertaler Have 11 over 1.5 FHG and just 1 0-0HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG 4.30 Back over 1.5 FHG 2.38Jablonec Have 12 Overs and 3 0-0 HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG 3.30 Back over 1.5 FHG3.05Doncaster Have 9 Overs and 2 0-0 HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG3.35 Back over 1.5 FHG2.98Weymouth Have 9 Overs and 2 0-0HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG3.70 Back over 1.5 FHG2.70Dusseldorf Have 8 Over 1.5 FHG And just 1 0-0 HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG4.10 Back over 1.5 FHG 2.44I will be tracking data for every shortlisted game, these are the best value from todays shortlist
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1 for early tomorrow
Shonan v Tosu 6-1 under 0.5fhg 3.35-2.86 over 1.5 fhg
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@Jon-Kinnear said in Jon's FHG Strategy/Testing/Data collection:
Antofagasta v Deportes Limache 5-1 under 3.40-2.96 over
Aucas v Libertad FC 5-1 under 3.50-2.90 overAntofagasta had 2 fhg's for +2.90
Aucas was 0-0 HT -3.50total for today -0.60 pts
overall total +6.27
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2 selections for the evening.
Antofagasta v Deportes Limache 5-1 under 3.40-2.96 over
Aucas v Libertad FC 5-1 under 3.50-2.90 over -
@Jon-Kinnear said in Jon's FHG Strategy/Testing/Data collection:
TUS Koblenz v TSG Balingen 9-1 under 4.00-2.52 over
Stuttgart v Bayern Munich 13-1...............4.60-2.22
sheff utd 13-1 ...........................................4.00-2.54
Sassuolo v Inter 8-1 ................................ 4.30-2.36Koblenz, stuttgart and sheff utd all had 2 fhg's for +7.27 points
Sassuolo had a fhg for scratch.new total +6.87 points
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Going tight on the stats today, heres the best 4
TUS Koblenz v TSG Balingen 9-1 under 4.00-2.52 over
Stuttgart v Bayern Munich 13-1...............4.60-2.22
sheff utd 13-1 ...........................................4.00-2.54
Sassuolo v Inter 8-1 ................................ 4.30-2.36 -
This strategy started poorly today but had a couple of winners near the end.
Vukovar,Danubio and Hamburger bets all lost for -9.83 points
Videoton and Liverpool M both had 2 fhg's for +5.77 points
Helmond was a scratch after a 7th min goal.
Total for today -4.06 pointstotal so far -0.40 points
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7 from the shortlist today, wanted to cut down to 5, but too difficult when the value is there.
Vukovar 6-2 under 3.36 overs 2.92
Danubio 3-0 under 2.92 overs 3.40
Stripfing 12-2 under 3.55 overs 2.84...odds shifted on this one under has drifted to 4.20-4.60 to lay and overs has come in by 0.5 pts, while it still has some value, most of its disappeared.
Hamburger 12-3 under 4.00 overs 2.46
Videoton 9-2 under 3.80 - overs 2.62
Helmond 10-2 under 4.10 overs 2.48
Liverpool M 4-1 under 3.20 overs 3.15 -
Cukaricki v FK Napredak 6-1 under is 4.30 overs is 2.38...1 goal in the 1st half for scratch.
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1 Selection today from the shortlist.
Cukaricki v FK Napredak 6-1 under is 4.30 overs is 2.38
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Univ Catolica (Ecu) v Barcelona (Ecu)... this one was 0-0 HT for a loss of 3.40 points
Rangers women would have been a scratch if the odds had been a little biggernew total +3.66
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Just one for early tomorrow.
Univ Catolica (Ecu) v Barcelona (Ecu) 5-0 under is 3.40 overs is 2.94
Rangers women was close to being a selection, odds a bit too low so will not be including it, worth tracking them though as they may be profitable in the long run. -
Pacos Ferreira v AVS Futebol SAD 10-2 under is 3.35 overs is 3.05... had 1 fhg for scratch
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Just 1 for today,
Pacos Ferreira v AVS Futebol SAD 10-2 under is 3.35 overs is 3.05
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Universidad Cesar Vallejo v Sporting Cristal 8-1 under 3.40 overs 3.00
This game had 3 fhg's
+2.94 points for this one+7.06 is the new total
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Just 1 for early tomorrow..
Universidad Cesar Vallejo v Sporting Cristal 8-1 under 3.40 overs 3.00
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@Jon-Kinnear back in the green, nice one!
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OK,lets hope for a better day with these.
MTK Budapest v Ferencvaros 11-2 unders 4.00 overs 2.50...1-2 at HT +2.45 points
PAOK v AEK Athens 13-2 unders 3.30 overs 3.00...2 early fhg's +2.94 points
Progreso v Liverpool Montevideo 4-0 unders 3.00 overs 3.35... 1 fhg for scratch
Porto v Sporting Lisbon 9-3 unders 3.50 overs 2.84...2-0 at HT +2.79 POINTS3 winners and a scratch for +8.18points profit
New total +4.12 points
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Here are the best picks from the shortlist today 1 or 2 may not make the cut, as odds may not form/or be to low to be considered value.
Holstein Kiel v Kaiserslautern 14-3 unders is 4.10 overs is 2.48...1-2 at HT Win +2.42 pts
Barnsley v Northampton 10-3 under 4.2 overs is 2.40...1-0 at HT for scratch
Cottbus v Lokomotiv Leipzig 13-3 under 3.90 overs is 2.60... 1-0 HT for scratch
Kuressaare v Tallinna FC Flora 5-1 under 3.85 overs 2.60 updated**...1-0 at HT for scratch
Diosgyori v Kecskemeti 9-3 under 3.25 overs is 3.10...no goals in the 1st half - 3.25 points
VFB Oldenburg v SSV Jeddeloh 10-2 under 4.70 overs is 2.22...no goals in the 1st half -4.70 points
FC Tallinn v Levadia Tallinn II 5-1 odds too low updated**
Panaitolikos v Atromitos 6-2 under is 3.25 overs is 3.10...no goals in 1st half -3.25 points
Zeleznicar Pancevo v Radnicki Nis 10-3 under is 3.40 overs is 2.96...no goals in 1st half -3.40 points
Club Mercedes v CSD Muniz 5-1 under is 2.92 overs is 3.55...no goals in 1st half -2.92
LDU v Tecnico Universitario 4-1 under is 4.10 overs 2.96...1 fhg for scratch-15.10 points with just the LDU game left, this one took a beating today, had good stats and decent odds.
just 1 win and 5 losses in a row, takes the new total to -4.06 points