Jon's FHG Strategy/Testing/Data collection

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Been away from BTC for a while, but now am back to continue my progress.
I like doing FHG, so thats what im working on. Created a new strategy while i was away from BTC and have been excited to get back and refine it with the filters, also getting your selections without having to research for 2-3 hours a day is awesome.

My strategy is playing 2 markets against each other.
Lay the under 0.5 FHG for 1 point + small amount to cover comission say £10.21 on the Lay if £10 on the back to break even if just 1 FHG
Back the over 1.5 FHG for 1 point

My filters find games where teams have more over 1.5 goals first half than 0-0 ht, i just narrow it down to the best stats, then cherry pick the best value regarding the odds on offer.

The filters are...
Ov. Matches Played>=6
Ov. H1 Over 0.5 %>=75
Ov. HT 0-0<4
Ov. H1 Over 1.5 >=3
Ov. FT Over 1.5 % >=70

scope last 10 matches
restricted to current season
exclude playoffs

Todays picks (please dont follow these, its just for testing at the moment)
Portsmouth have 11 over 1.5 FHG and just 1 0-0HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG 3.50 Back over 1.5 FHG 2.82

Wuppertaler Have 11 over 1.5 FHG and just 1 0-0HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG 4.30 Back over 1.5 FHG 2.38

Jablonec Have 12 Overs and 3 0-0 HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG 3.30 Back over 1.5 FHG3.05

Doncaster Have 9 Overs and 2 0-0 HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG3.35 Back over 1.5 FHG2.98

Weymouth Have 9 Overs and 2 0-0HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG3.70 Back over 1.5 FHG2.70

Dusseldorf Have 8 Over 1.5 FHG And just 1 0-0 HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG4.10 Back over 1.5 FHG 2.44

I will be tracking data for every shortlisted game, these are the best value from todays shortlist

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4 selections today,

Sonderjske 13-3 under 0.5fhg 3.80-2.60 over 1.5 fhg
Asane 5-0 3.90-2.56
Lyn 4-0 3.35-3.05
Magallanes 7-1 3.40-2.98

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VFB Oldenburg v St Pauli II 11-3 U0.5fhg 4.20-2.40 O1.5fgh
Velbert v SC Wiedenbruck 10-2 U0.5fhg 4.30-2.38 O1.5fhg

Oldenburg had 1 fhg for scratch
Velbert had 2 fhg's for a +2.33 point win

New total +7.30 points

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Todays selections

VFB Oldenburg v St Pauli II 11-3 U0.5fhg 4.20-2.40 O1.5fgh
Velbert v SC Wiedenbruck 10-2 U0.5fhg 4.30-2.38 O1.5fhg

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Orebro Syrianska v Sollentuna FF 5-0 under 0.5 fhg 4.10 over 1.5 fhg 2.44

0-0 HT for a 4.10 point loss.

new total +4.97 points

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1 decent selection today.

Orebro Syrianska v Sollentuna FF 5-0 under 0.5 fhg 4.10 over 1.5 fhg 2.44

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Nothing today.

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Shonan v Tosu 6-1 under 0.5fhg 3.35-2.86 over 1.5 fhg

2 goals in the first half for +2.80 points

new total +9.07 points

No selections today

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1 for early tomorrow

Shonan v Tosu 6-1 under 0.5fhg 3.35-2.86 over 1.5 fhg

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@Jon-Kinnear said in Jon's FHG Strategy/Testing/Data collection:

Antofagasta v Deportes Limache 5-1 under 3.40-2.96 over
Aucas v Libertad FC 5-1 under 3.50-2.90 over

Antofagasta had 2 fhg's for +2.90
Aucas was 0-0 HT -3.50

total for today -0.60 pts

overall total +6.27

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2 selections for the evening.

Antofagasta v Deportes Limache 5-1 under 3.40-2.96 over
Aucas v Libertad FC 5-1 under 3.50-2.90 over

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@Jon-Kinnear said in Jon's FHG Strategy/Testing/Data collection:

TUS Koblenz v TSG Balingen 9-1 under 4.00-2.52 over
Stuttgart v Bayern Munich 13-1...............4.60-2.22
sheff utd 13-1 ...........................................4.00-2.54
Sassuolo v Inter 8-1 ................................ 4.30-2.36

Koblenz, stuttgart and sheff utd all had 2 fhg's for +7.27 points
Sassuolo had a fhg for scratch.

new total +6.87 points

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Going tight on the stats today, heres the best 4

TUS Koblenz v TSG Balingen 9-1 under 4.00-2.52 over
Stuttgart v Bayern Munich 13-1...............4.60-2.22
sheff utd 13-1 ...........................................4.00-2.54
Sassuolo v Inter 8-1 ................................ 4.30-2.36

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This strategy started poorly today but had a couple of winners near the end.

Vukovar,Danubio and Hamburger bets all lost for -9.83 points
Videoton and Liverpool M both had 2 fhg's for +5.77 points
Helmond was a scratch after a 7th min goal.
Total for today -4.06 points

total so far -0.40 points

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7 from the shortlist today, wanted to cut down to 5, but too difficult when the value is there.
Vukovar 6-2 under 3.36 overs 2.92
Danubio 3-0 under 2.92 overs 3.40
Stripfing 12-2 under 3.55 overs 2.84...odds shifted on this one under has drifted to 4.20-4.60 to lay and overs has come in by 0.5 pts, while it still has some value, most of its disappeared.
Hamburger 12-3 under 4.00 overs 2.46
Videoton 9-2 under 3.80 - overs 2.62
Helmond 10-2 under 4.10 overs 2.48
Liverpool M 4-1 under 3.20 overs 3.15

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Cukaricki v FK Napredak 6-1 under is 4.30 overs is 2.38...1 goal in the 1st half for scratch.

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1 Selection today from the shortlist.

Cukaricki v FK Napredak 6-1 under is 4.30 overs is 2.38

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Univ Catolica (Ecu) v Barcelona (Ecu)... this one was 0-0 HT for a loss of 3.40 points
Rangers women would have been a scratch if the odds had been a little bigger

new total +3.66

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Just one for early tomorrow.

Univ Catolica (Ecu) v Barcelona (Ecu) 5-0 under is 3.40 overs is 2.94
Rangers women was close to being a selection, odds a bit too low so will not be including it, worth tracking them though as they may be profitable in the long run.

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Pacos Ferreira v AVS Futebol SAD 10-2 under is 3.35 overs is 3.05... had 1 fhg for scratch