Jon's FHG Strategy/Testing/Data collection
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Been away from BTC for a while, but now am back to continue my progress.
I like doing FHG, so thats what im working on. Created a new strategy while i was away from BTC and have been excited to get back and refine it with the filters, also getting your selections without having to research for 2-3 hours a day is awesome.My strategy is playing 2 markets against each other.
Lay the under 0.5 FHG for 1 point + small amount to cover comission say £10.21 on the Lay if £10 on the back to break even if just 1 FHG
Back the over 1.5 FHG for 1 pointMy filters find games where teams have more over 1.5 goals first half than 0-0 ht, i just narrow it down to the best stats, then cherry pick the best value regarding the odds on offer.
The filters are...
Ov. Matches Played>=6
Ov. H1 Over 0.5 %>=75
Ov. HT 0-0<4
Ov. H1 Over 1.5 >=3
Ov. FT Over 1.5 % >=70scope last 10 matches
restricted to current season
exclude playoffsTodays picks (please dont follow these, its just for testing at the moment)
Portsmouth have 11 over 1.5 FHG and just 1 0-0HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG 3.50 Back over 1.5 FHG 2.82Wuppertaler Have 11 over 1.5 FHG and just 1 0-0HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG 4.30 Back over 1.5 FHG 2.38Jablonec Have 12 Overs and 3 0-0 HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG 3.30 Back over 1.5 FHG3.05Doncaster Have 9 Overs and 2 0-0 HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG3.35 Back over 1.5 FHG2.98Weymouth Have 9 Overs and 2 0-0HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG3.70 Back over 1.5 FHG2.70Dusseldorf Have 8 Over 1.5 FHG And just 1 0-0 HT
Lay under 0.5 FHG4.10 Back over 1.5 FHG 2.44I will be tracking data for every shortlisted game, these are the best value from todays shortlist
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4 selections today,
Sonderjske 13-3 under 0.5fhg 3.80-2.60 over 1.5 fhg
Asane 5-0 3.90-2.56
Lyn 4-0 3.35-3.05
Magallanes 7-1 3.40-2.98 -
VFB Oldenburg v St Pauli II 11-3 U0.5fhg 4.20-2.40 O1.5fgh
Velbert v SC Wiedenbruck 10-2 U0.5fhg 4.30-2.38 O1.5fhgOldenburg had 1 fhg for scratch
Velbert had 2 fhg's for a +2.33 point winNew total +7.30 points
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Todays selections
VFB Oldenburg v St Pauli II 11-3 U0.5fhg 4.20-2.40 O1.5fgh
Velbert v SC Wiedenbruck 10-2 U0.5fhg 4.30-2.38 O1.5fhg -
Orebro Syrianska v Sollentuna FF 5-0 under 0.5 fhg 4.10 over 1.5 fhg 2.44
0-0 HT for a 4.10 point loss.
new total +4.97 points
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1 decent selection today.
Orebro Syrianska v Sollentuna FF 5-0 under 0.5 fhg 4.10 over 1.5 fhg 2.44
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Nothing today.
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Shonan v Tosu 6-1 under 0.5fhg 3.35-2.86 over 1.5 fhg
2 goals in the first half for +2.80 points
new total +9.07 points
No selections today
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1 for early tomorrow
Shonan v Tosu 6-1 under 0.5fhg 3.35-2.86 over 1.5 fhg
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@Jon-Kinnear said in Jon's FHG Strategy/Testing/Data collection:
Antofagasta v Deportes Limache 5-1 under 3.40-2.96 over
Aucas v Libertad FC 5-1 under 3.50-2.90 overAntofagasta had 2 fhg's for +2.90
Aucas was 0-0 HT -3.50total for today -0.60 pts
overall total +6.27
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2 selections for the evening.
Antofagasta v Deportes Limache 5-1 under 3.40-2.96 over
Aucas v Libertad FC 5-1 under 3.50-2.90 over -
@Jon-Kinnear said in Jon's FHG Strategy/Testing/Data collection:
TUS Koblenz v TSG Balingen 9-1 under 4.00-2.52 over
Stuttgart v Bayern Munich 13-1...............4.60-2.22
sheff utd 13-1 ...........................................4.00-2.54
Sassuolo v Inter 8-1 ................................ 4.30-2.36Koblenz, stuttgart and sheff utd all had 2 fhg's for +7.27 points
Sassuolo had a fhg for scratch.new total +6.87 points
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Going tight on the stats today, heres the best 4
TUS Koblenz v TSG Balingen 9-1 under 4.00-2.52 over
Stuttgart v Bayern Munich 13-1...............4.60-2.22
sheff utd 13-1 ...........................................4.00-2.54
Sassuolo v Inter 8-1 ................................ 4.30-2.36 -
This strategy started poorly today but had a couple of winners near the end.
Vukovar,Danubio and Hamburger bets all lost for -9.83 points
Videoton and Liverpool M both had 2 fhg's for +5.77 points
Helmond was a scratch after a 7th min goal.
Total for today -4.06 pointstotal so far -0.40 points
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7 from the shortlist today, wanted to cut down to 5, but too difficult when the value is there.
Vukovar 6-2 under 3.36 overs 2.92
Danubio 3-0 under 2.92 overs 3.40
Stripfing 12-2 under 3.55 overs 2.84...odds shifted on this one under has drifted to 4.20-4.60 to lay and overs has come in by 0.5 pts, while it still has some value, most of its disappeared.
Hamburger 12-3 under 4.00 overs 2.46
Videoton 9-2 under 3.80 - overs 2.62
Helmond 10-2 under 4.10 overs 2.48
Liverpool M 4-1 under 3.20 overs 3.15 -
Cukaricki v FK Napredak 6-1 under is 4.30 overs is 2.38...1 goal in the 1st half for scratch.
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1 Selection today from the shortlist.
Cukaricki v FK Napredak 6-1 under is 4.30 overs is 2.38
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Univ Catolica (Ecu) v Barcelona (Ecu)... this one was 0-0 HT for a loss of 3.40 points
Rangers women would have been a scratch if the odds had been a little biggernew total +3.66
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Just one for early tomorrow.
Univ Catolica (Ecu) v Barcelona (Ecu) 5-0 under is 3.40 overs is 2.94
Rangers women was close to being a selection, odds a bit too low so will not be including it, worth tracking them though as they may be profitable in the long run. -
Pacos Ferreira v AVS Futebol SAD 10-2 under is 3.35 overs is 3.05... had 1 fhg for scratch