*****New Football Thread*****

Richard Latimer

@Nick-Segura said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Richard-Latimer I was going to ask if this was a raw spreadsheet or if you had done a bit of back fitting based on your analysis of results. That makes sense. I think around 90% is possible, that’s my current average on backing o1.5 and ShG but only on 300 actual trades. Not sure that it’ll stay this high, but it doesn’t really matter as long as the price is right.

I basically look at everything from combinations of goals scored/conceded to h2h, what has happened and when as well as current over % with when the last under/0-0 was etc.

Raw data is coming in around 82-83%.

But if any part of what I'm looking at isn't profitable then I won't accept that, hence the difference.

? Offline

@Richard-Latimer I was going to ask if this was a raw spreadsheet or if you had done a bit of back fitting based on your analysis of results. That makes sense. I think around 90% is possible, that’s my current average on backing o1.5 and ShG but only on 300 actual trades. Not sure that it’ll stay this high, but it doesn’t really matter as long as the price is right.

Richard Latimer

@Nick-Segura said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Richard-Latimer Hey, I am confused, you have a 97% strike rate on the lay under 1.5? Lost 16 trades in over 550 matches? Am I reading your spreadsheet right? This is quite remarkable, to say the least!

You are reading it right but it's theoretical at present unfortunately.

I analyse every single loss in full detail. If I can find a logical reason to remove it from selections I will do so.

Hence all the other tabs informing my decision. I don't believe 97% is possible but I do believe eventually 90%+ will be.

? Offline

@Richard-Latimer Hey, I am confused, you have a 97% strike rate on the lay under 1.5? Lost 16 trades in over 550 matches? Am I reading your spreadsheet right? This is quite remarkable, to say the least!

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

This for a tiny profit on the month:

Lay over 2.5

Longterm I may go back to laying over 1.5 on these but 2.5 seems the safe and steady route for now, if not the most aggressive and rewarding.

3 shots on target, 3 goals. Didn't quite make it back to break even. Need a big push for Nov/Dec but still in profit for the year importantly.

Richard Latimer

This for a tiny profit on the month:

Lay over 2.5

Longterm I may go back to laying over 1.5 on these but 2.5 seems the safe and steady route for now, if not the most aggressive and rewarding.

Mark Maguire

@Akiva-Anderson thank you sir .. enjoying catching up on your contributions as ever .. and excited about challenge ahead. Its been the best part of three years preparing so now time to do it.

Akiva Anderson

@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Now then ! Just a quick hello to old friends and new .. been "away for a few months" .. sorting stuff out .. missed you lot and now I'm back it looks like someone has rearranged things while I've been away... so will have to navigate my way around that

Spent the last three months finishing my commercial work in football, finalising my strategies trading and continuing work in France to now officially be trading full time albeit alongside the security of income from the French stuff.. so fingers crossed for exciting times ahead.

Good to be back.

Welcome back!!

Mark Maguire

Now then ! Just a quick hello to old friends and new .. been "away for a few months" .. sorting stuff out .. missed you lot and now I'm back it looks like someone has rearranged things while I've been away... so will have to navigate my way around that

Spent the last three months finishing my commercial work in football, finalising my strategies trading and continuing work in France to now officially be trading full time albeit alongside the security of income from the French stuff.. so fingers crossed for exciting times ahead.

Good to be back.

Akiva Anderson

@Arran-Shackell said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson

I have noticed you like your A League. I am never up in time on the weekend.

I love the A-League. The quality isn't great, but it's a good honest game of football.

Arran Shackell

@Akiva-Anderson

I have noticed you like your A League. I am never up in time on the weekend.

Richard Latimer

Pretty much break even today

Lay under 1.5 1/2
Lay over 2.5 1/1

Richard Latimer

@nick said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Richard-Latimer Do you think the overs are now more profitable because we have this greater amount of extra time since the new rules came in and obviously this hits the unders?

Can't be sure but not really. This weekend threw up some real freak things which basically never happen. Plus if the goals come before injury time you can't say it's relevant.

6 goals in 30 minutes when the game is 0-0. That's mental.

For my unders lays, nothing has changed other than I'm getting more and more data and it's starting to become more robust. Plus limiting my liability by laying under 2.5 means I can stake a little higher and take the high priced games I was leaving on the table.

I did notice a while back the correlation between price and how often 3 goals+ would be scored. I just hadn't done anything about it.

nick

@Martin Im thinking of using the LU 3.5 strategy but doing it under 4.5goals.

nick

@Richard-Latimer Do you think the overs are now more profitable because we have this greater amount of extra time since the new rules came in and obviously this hits the unders?

Akiva Anderson

A good weekend. Plenty of goals around:

Just shy of 3 points this weekend, just under 19 points for the month of October so far:

Australia A-League 27/10/2023 09:45 Brisbane Roar Sydney FC 1.23 2-0 3-0 £23.00 TV O1.5
Germany Bundesliga 27/10/2023 19:30 Bochum Mainz 1.27 1-0 2-2 £27.00 OA/B O1.5
Spain La Liga 27/10/2023 20:00 Girona Celta Vigo 1.21 0-0 1-0 £21.00 OA/B/O SHG
Australia A-League 28/10/2023 04:30 Wellington Phoenix Perth Glory 1.23 1-0 2-1 £23.00 TV O1.5
Australia A-League 28/10/2023 09:45 Western Sydney Western United 1.22 5-0 5-0 £22.00 TV O1.5
England Premier League 28/10/2023 12:30 Chelsea Brentford 1.69 0-0 0-2 -£100.00 O HW
England Premier League 28/10/2023 12:30 Chelsea Brentford 1.36 0-0 0-2 £36.00 O LCS
Czech Rep First League 28/10/2023 14:00 Sigma Olomouc Zlin 1.22 0-0 0-0 -£100.00 OA/O SHG
England Premier League 28/10/2023 15:00 Bournemouth Burnley 1.26 1-1 2-1 £26.00 OA SHG
England Championship 28/10/2023 15:00 QPR Leicester 1.21 1-1 1-2 £21.00 OA/O SHG
Northern Ireland Irish Premier League 28/10/2023 15:00 Crusaders Glentoran 2.4 1-1 1-1 -£100.00 TV HW
France Ligue 1 28/10/2023 16:00 Reims Lorient 1.3 0-0 1-0 £30.00 OA/O SHG
Czech Rep First League 28/10/2023 17:00 Banick Ostrava Jablonec 1.31 0-0 0-1 £31.00 O SHG
England Premier League 28/10/2023 17:30 Wolves Newcastle 1.5 1-2 2-2 £50.00 OA/O SHG
Northern Ireland Irish Premier League 28/10/2023 17:30 Newry City Larne 1.21 0-0 1-2 £21.00 O AW
Portugal Primera Division 28/10/2023 18:00 Benfica Casa Pia 1.3 1-0 1-1 £30.00 O SHG
Holland Eredivisie 28/10/2023 19:00 Sparta Rotterdam RKC Waalwijk 1.24 0-0 2-0 £24.00 O SHG
Italy Serie A 28/10/2023 19:45 Juventus Verona 1.21 0-0 1-0 £21.00 O SHG
France Ligue 1 28/10/2023 20:00 Lens Nantes 1.29 1-0 4-0 £29.00 OA/O SHG
USA MLS 28/10/2023 22:00 Philadelphia Union New England 1.21 3-0 3-1 £21.00 O O1.5
Australia A-League 29/10/2023 06:00 Melbourne Victory Newcastle Jets 1.21 4-1 5-3 £21.00 O O1.5
Holland Eredivisie 29/10/2023 11:15 FC Twente Feyenoord 1.22 1-0 2-1 £22.00 OA/B SHG
France Ligue 1 29/10/2023 14:00 Montpellier Toulouse 1.26 1-0 3-0 £26.00 OA/O SHG
England Premier League 29/10/2023 14:00 Brighton Fulham 1.21 1-0 1-1 £21.00 OA/B/O SHG
Denmark Superliga 29/10/2023 14:00 Silkeborg OB 1.22 0-0 0-0 -£100.00 OA/B/O SHG
England Premier League 29/10/2023 15:30 Manchester United Manchester City 1.64 0-1 0-3 £64.00 O AW
France Ligue 1 29/10/2023 16:05 Rennes Strasbourg 1.3 1-0 1-1 £30.00 OA/O SHG
Italy Serie A 29/10/2023 17:00 Inter Milan Roma 1.22 0-0 1-0 £22.00 OA/B/O SHG
Spain La Liga 29/10/2023 17:30 Athletic Bilbao Valencia 1.26 1-0 2-2 £26.00 OA/O SHG
Italy Serie A 29/10/2023 19:45 Napoli Milan 1.21 0-2 2-2 £21.00 OA SHG
Italy Serie A 29/10/2023 19:45 Napoli Milan 1.23 0-2 2-2 £23.00 OA LCS
Italy Serie A 29/10/2023 19:45 Napoli Milan 1.52 0-2 2-2 -£100.00 OA LCS
USA MLS 29/10/2023 22:00 Houston Dynamo Real Salt Lake 1.35 1-0 2-1 £35.00 O FHG
USA MLS 29/10/2023 22:00 Houston Dynamo Real Salt Lake 1.24 1-0 2-1 £24.00 O O1.5
291

Richard Latimer

Busy for a Monday. Chance to get over the hill. Purple are lay over 2.5, blue are lay under 1.5 up to price of 6.8 or lay under 2.5 between 7.0-9.6:

Martin

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Final trade. Lay over 2.5 Valerenga

Another clanger. Not the weekend for betting against goals.

Going through my results now defo a goals weekend!

Richard Latimer

Within touching distance of recovering the early month shambles now.

6/7 under 1.5 lays
1/1 under 2.5 lays
1/3 over 2.5 lays

Over lays were break even Friday, around 3pts loss yesterday and just under 1pt loss yesterday.
The only winners for Sat and Sunday have come from smaller odds lays.

Regardless, it's around a £13.00 gain today the way I play it.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Final trade. Lay over 2.5 Valerenga

Another clanger. Not the weekend for betting against goals.