*****New Football Thread*****

Richard Latimer

@Nick-Segura said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Simon-Bates This is the kind of question your database will answer once you have a sufficient amount of data - a few thousand results or more in that instance - few seasons. I personally only rely on my own data to answer questions of that specific nature and I wouldn't change anything that I am doing based on what other people do - too many variables. So my answer to your question would be, gather more data and be super consistent with your current approach for at least 6 months to a year, do not change anything until then, do not remove losing trades, leagues or anything from your master sheet (if you want to apply filters, start a new sheet with the filtered data and keep collecting data on the master), review your data every 6 months and the answer to your question will come to you. You might find out that while your strike rate was lower in December, the market was mispriced more often and value was greater for example (just a random example btw) or maybe December is a month worth avoiding in certain leagues....Who knows!

I have definitely made it harder for myself removing things in a blanket before realisng I could have tracked things in a different way. Now I collect everything I think I might use and like you said just filter it out. Same sheet but with smart filters I don't need to include on streamlined data agaIn until I'm sure I should. Just a case of filling cells with a different colour for me.

Richard Latimer

Got an overnighter. Lay under 1.5:

? Offline

@Simon-Bates This is the kind of question your database will answer once you have a sufficient amount of data - a few thousand results or more in that instance - few seasons. I personally only rely on my own data to answer questions of that specific nature and I wouldn't change anything that I am doing based on what other people do - too many variables. So my answer to your question would be, gather more data and be super consistent with your current approach for at least 6 months to a year, do not change anything until then, do not remove losing trades, leagues or anything from your master sheet (if you want to apply filters, start a new sheet with the filtered data and keep collecting data on the master), review your data every 6 months and the answer to your question will come to you. You might find out that while your strike rate was lower in December, the market was mispriced more often and value was greater for example (just a random example btw) or maybe December is a month worth avoiding in certain leagues....Who knows!

Akiva Anderson

Watched the Bristol City v West Ham match last night. West Ham didn't look interested, but Benrahma is a f*****g disgrace. I'll be livid if I was a West Ham supporter

Greg Mitchell

(Updated) Now three selections:

Greg Mitchell

Just the one match played last night.

Stephen Hancox

@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Stephen-Hancox he was once the best manager in the world, I think that he is a busted flush now, may win the odd trophy, I would argue the last major trophy he won was the 14/15 premier league nearly a decade ago. Probably tactically more than anything, don't think his style is effective in the modern game.

and Mourinho sacked

Ha ha I had a feeling this morning that you might mention this. Left after 2.5 years after reaching 2 European finals and winning 1 of them.

I heard he'd said last month that he has nowhere left to prove anything apart from Germany so has been orchestrating this scenario it seems. Where does he go now? Germany? Surely not England again. Or perhaps time for international management?

Greg Mitchell

@Arran-Shackell Its a little difficult for me to just give you the criteria, I have probably over complicated it, but its how I roll.

Basically, this is how I work:

I have 51 different mini-strategies in the BTC software which are a mixture of the presets, ones that have been discussed/published on here, some from other websites etc etc.

I also have 6 mini strategies based on calculations on the BTC Football Ratings.

I allocate each of these mini-strategies to one of my main strategies, so for example, My FHG strategy has a total of 20 mini-strategies allocated to it.

Then each day I download all the mini-strategy selections allocating each to a main strategy, so for example on my list for today Oldham v Boreham Wood has 5 mini FHG strategies. For me to consider any mini strategy selection, the match must have at least 3 mini strategies before it gets allocated to a main strategy.

I then look at the average historical strike rate for the 5 mini-strategies and also the historical strike rate for all 5 as a combination. I also include a historical league strike rate for my Main Strategies regardless of whether the games have been picked up by a mini strategy. So for example, the Strike Rate for FHG in all National League Matches which have been picked up by at least 1 of the mini strategies since I started recording is 86%.

If all three strike rates meet my minimum % then its a selection.

That all sounds very complicated, but I have it all set up on Excel, just download the Software Selections and Football Ratings every morning, paste them into my spreadsheet and a quick check that everything makes sense and away we go. An absolute maximum of 30 minutes every day.

Hope that makes sense?

Arran Shackell

@Greg-Mitchell

Hi Greg. I’d be interested to know the criteria for the FHG if you’re willing to share please?

Martin

@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Stephen-Hancox he was once the best manager in the world, I think that he is a busted flush now, may win the odd trophy, I would argue the last major trophy he won was the 14/15 premier league nearly a decade ago. Probably tactically more than anything, don't think his style is effective in the modern game.

and Mourinho sacked

Greg Mitchell

Tentative Selections today:

Simon Bates

Of all my real trade and paper trade strategies I've been doing the last 3 months I've noticed that December was awful on results, i know its only 3 months of my own testing but every strategy was down, results were all over the place, November and, so far January, are all how I wanted to see my filter results, is this just a coincidence on all the strategies I'm doing/testing or has anyone else noticed this with theirs.
Long term traders, have you noticed, looking at your data, are certain months rubbish for your strategies, just wanting to know for future knowledge as so to avoid or lessen my trades for them months.

Greg Mitchell

Full house yesterday.

Martin

@Akiva-Anderson I use notes on Iphone, surely there must be free apps out there?

Akiva Anderson

Anyone else here use 'Evernote'? I think @Ryan used to. I used the free version for trading, now it is restricted and they're looking £6.50 a month!

Suppose I can't complain. I had it free for a few years.

This week I've just started using 'word' and save it to the cloud.

Greg Mitchell

@Akiva-Anderson Always the way isn't it...

Greg Mitchell

@Akiva-Anderson Afcon, great opportunity for Laying the Overs...

Mark Maguire

@Akiva-Anderson agree Afcon awful - and I remember last year is was all nil nil and one one .. add to which its probably the most likely to etc ..be open to , ahem "influence" of ref decisions ..

Akiva Anderson

Anyone been watching the Asian Cup or the African Cup of Nations?

Been watching the Asian Cup, quality isn't great, but pleasantly surprised. The African Cup of Nations is horrendous. For the quality of players on show, it really is poor.

Akiva Anderson

@Greg-Mitchell said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Not the best day yesterday:

I hate days like these. I had a poor day yesterday too. I should've known it was going to be bad, because I upped the stakes!