*****New Football Thread*****
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@Arran-Shackell Its a little difficult for me to just give you the criteria, I have probably over complicated it, but its how I roll.
Basically, this is how I work:
I have 51 different mini-strategies in the BTC software which are a mixture of the presets, ones that have been discussed/published on here, some from other websites etc etc.
I also have 6 mini strategies based on calculations on the BTC Football Ratings.
I allocate each of these mini-strategies to one of my main strategies, so for example, My FHG strategy has a total of 20 mini-strategies allocated to it.
Then each day I download all the mini-strategy selections allocating each to a main strategy, so for example on my list for today Oldham v Boreham Wood has 5 mini FHG strategies. For me to consider any mini strategy selection, the match must have at least 3 mini strategies before it gets allocated to a main strategy.
I then look at the average historical strike rate for the 5 mini-strategies and also the historical strike rate for all 5 as a combination. I also include a historical league strike rate for my Main Strategies regardless of whether the games have been picked up by a mini strategy. So for example, the Strike Rate for FHG in all National League Matches which have been picked up by at least 1 of the mini strategies since I started recording is 86%.
If all three strike rates meet my minimum % then its a selection.
That all sounds very complicated, but I have it all set up on Excel, just download the Software Selections and Football Ratings every morning, paste them into my spreadsheet and a quick check that everything makes sense and away we go. An absolute maximum of 30 minutes every day.
Hope that makes sense?
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Hi Greg. I’d be interested to know the criteria for the FHG if you’re willing to share please?
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Stephen-Hancox he was once the best manager in the world, I think that he is a busted flush now, may win the odd trophy, I would argue the last major trophy he won was the 14/15 premier league nearly a decade ago. Probably tactically more than anything, don't think his style is effective in the modern game.
and Mourinho sacked
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Tentative Selections today:
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Of all my real trade and paper trade strategies I've been doing the last 3 months I've noticed that December was awful on results, i know its only 3 months of my own testing but every strategy was down, results were all over the place, November and, so far January, are all how I wanted to see my filter results, is this just a coincidence on all the strategies I'm doing/testing or has anyone else noticed this with theirs.
Long term traders, have you noticed, looking at your data, are certain months rubbish for your strategies, just wanting to know for future knowledge as so to avoid or lessen my trades for them months. -
Full house yesterday.
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@Akiva-Anderson I use notes on Iphone, surely there must be free apps out there?
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Anyone else here use 'Evernote'? I think @Ryan used to. I used the free version for trading, now it is restricted and they're looking £6.50 a month!
Suppose I can't complain. I had it free for a few years.
This week I've just started using 'word' and save it to the cloud.
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@Akiva-Anderson Always the way isn't it...
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@Akiva-Anderson Afcon, great opportunity for Laying the Overs...
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@Akiva-Anderson agree Afcon awful - and I remember last year is was all nil nil and one one .. add to which its probably the most likely to etc ..be open to , ahem "influence" of ref decisions ..
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Anyone been watching the Asian Cup or the African Cup of Nations?
Been watching the Asian Cup, quality isn't great, but pleasantly surprised. The African Cup of Nations is horrendous. For the quality of players on show, it really is poor.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Greg-Mitchell said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Not the best day yesterday:
I hate days like these. I had a poor day yesterday too. I should've known it was going to be bad, because I upped the stakes!
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
Here's an interesting one for folks to consider reading an article re the impact of Afcon:
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So almost inevitably with me in celebratory mood - a couple of trades give me a kick up the arse , but as this is about accountability I can't hide from them.. very angry with myself about Girona game, all the signs were there and I also traded it badly in play which I can only describe as a deviation from my discipline and the danger of over confidence.. so last night I had a proper word with myself and revisited that one...
LTD
Lille vs Lorient
Parma vs Ascoli
Feyenoord vs Nijmegen got out at 2 nil01.5 Split Stake out after 70 if no goal (green up on a goal - to free bet if its in first 30 mins)
Almeria vs Girona
Feyenoord vs Nijmegen02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal (green up after goal, to free bet if its in first 30 mins then out on second goal)
Feyenoord vs Nijmegen
Man Utd vs Tottenham
Almeria vs Girona
Moenchengladbach vs Stuttgart -
Todays picks:
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Not the best day yesterday:
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Can't avoid a losing weekend now but will be just over 1pt if this comes in. My only trade for Sunday. Lay under 1.5:
2-0 already
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Bit of a shocker today with 4 out of 5 set and forget trades going south. You never quite know where you are with the Turkish football - sometimes you get 5 or 6 goals, and other times (like today) you get 27 goal attempts and 8 shots on goal and the score ends 0-0. Didn't help that I put on a SHG trade on that match as well - double whammy. Having said that it's swings and roundabouts, as yesterday was a good day so I suppose it just about evens itself out. Hope everyone else had a better day today. We go again tomorrow.
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@Mark-Maguire All good, Im just slightly concerned with the formation of another boyband...
