1ST Strategy inspired by Super trader vid
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@martin I'm suprised by how much difference it makes, thought it would be a minor improvement at best.
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Man city 1.41 win
Ross county 1.5 lose
Rangers 1.29 win
Hearts 1.42 win
Korona kielce 1.44 lose
Sparta prague 1.23 win
Cercle brugge 1.40 win
Dundee utd 1.46 loseOverall profit/loss -£17.67
60 wins
24 losses
ROI -2.10%
Strikerate 71.42%I did a lot of testing yesterday, i noticed that 2 of the losers were 1.46 or higher so i went back through all the results.
results for games with odds 1.46 or higher(this includes results from a slightly looser filter)27 games
12 wins
15 losses
considering the average odds on these is around 1.53/1.54 these results have the potential for a lay strategy.as for the rest of the results it works out roughly 3.5 winners to every loser with average odds of above 1.33, Which is giving a clear edge.
Then there are SHG where the 1st half over0.5 price appears to have no effect, slightly better than 5 out of every 6 games is getting a a SHG.
will keep testing as it is but will be keeping an eye on it, will be 90 games in after todays selections which i will post a bit later.
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Todays selections
Man city 1.41
Ross county 1.5
Rangers 1.29
Hearts 1.42
Korona kielce 1.44
Sparta prague 1.23
Cercle brugge 1.40
Dundee utd 1.46 -
Arka Gdynia v Resovia Rzeszow 1.38 win
Adelaide United v Melbourne City 1.29 winOverall profit/loss -£4.80
55 wins
21 losses
ROI -0.63%
Strikerate 72.36% -
Friday is here finally, after a really slow week. only have 16 selections over the weekend.
have a rare weekend off work, so will put my focus on paper trading all of the selections using frodes over 2.5 goals strategy for 15mins + 30mins entry points,just to get a feel for it.2 for selections for today.
Arka Gdynia v Resovia Rzeszow 1.38
Adelaide United v Melbourne City 1.29 -
Have been analyzing the data for this set of filters so far, and think i can do a bit more with it.
During the first half when im able to trade im going to start tracking the odds for over 2.5 goals at 15min + 30mins, My results so far seem to indicate that frodes over 2.5 goals strategy may work with these selections, So im going to track this and find out.
Im also going to track the over0.5 and over1.5 1st half goal odds at 15mins + 30mins, As i have alot of games with 2 1st half goals after 15mins, and about 1 in 9 with 2 goals after 30 mins.
this basically means im testing 8 strategies from 1 set of filters, which i feel will increase the chances of me finding something that is profitable.
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Peterborough v Charlton 1.38 lose
Overall profit/loss -£11.36
53 wins
21 losses
ROI -1.53%
Strikerate 71.62%No selections now untill friday.
I have been monitoring a CS strategy based on these filters, so far
13 wins average odds 8.4
12 losses average odds 4.3
Strategy has lots of scratch trades.
need more games to know if its profitable as could just be a freak run of results, could easily swing the other way within a week. This is the one that im most excited for. -
@jon-kinnear said in 1ST Strategy inspired by Super trader vid:
@martin Yeah just shows not to get carried away based on a small sample of results, gonna keep grinding away with this until i have at least 300 games.
spot on!
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one selection for today
Peterborough v Charlton 1.38 -
@martin Yeah just shows not to get carried away based on a small sample of results, gonna keep grinding away with this until i have at least 300 games.
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Melbourne V 1.36 lose
Lausanne 1.34 win
Luzern 1.32 lose
Aarau 1.34 lose
Vitesse 1.35 win
Lugano 1.39 win
RWDM vs Lierse 1.34 lose
Santos laguna error not part of current filters
Zeledon cant find result?Total profit/loss -£1.36
53 wins
20 losses
ROI -0.18%
Strikerate 72.60%Bit of a turnaround was -£33.87 after 51 games was then £28 ahead after 10/10 winners on saturday. Not sure which way this is going to go long term but getting some solid data for other strategies.
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great day for these yesterday10/10 really turned around, will update the stats tomorrow.
todays selections
Melbourne V 1.36 lose
Lausanne 1.34
Luzern 1.32
Aarau 1.34
Vitesse 1.35
Lugano 1.39
RWDM vs Lierse 1.34
Santos laguna no liquid yet
Zeledon no liquid yet -
Resovia Rzeszow v Gornik Leczna 1.51win
Pisa v Perugia 1.58 win
Mazatlan FC v Pumas UNAM 1.40 win
Western Sydney Wanderers v Macarthur FC didnt get the odds so will discard this one, it won thoughTodays selections
Holstein Kiel v Paderborn 1.35
Oxford Utd v Bristol Rovers 1.40
Hoffenheim v Dortmund 1.32
Shrewsbury v Wycombe 1.53
Kilmarnock v Motherwell 1.53
Hamilton v Queens Park 1.39
Morton v Cove Rangers 1.45
Zaglebie Sosnowiec v GKS Katowice 1.47
Sion v St Gallen 1.33
Westerlo v Union St Gilloise 1.41will update weekend results on monday
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Santos Laguna v Toluca 1.33 win
profit/loss -£30.64
ROI -5.89%
Strikerate 69.23%Todays selections
Resovia Rzeszow v Gornik Leczna 1.51
Pisa v Perugia 1.58
Early Sat selections
Mazatlan FC v Pumas UNAM 1.40
Western Sydney Wanderers v Macarthur FC no liquidity yet -
Not long after creating this strategy, i ran into the issue of way too many selections.
My solution to narrow selections was to tighten the filters up.Ov. H1 Over 0.5 Goals % > = 80 5% increase
Ov. Matches played > = 10 no change
Ov. Goal Attempts Per Match H1 Ave > = 10 +2 increase
Ov. Corners Per Match H1 Ave > = 5 +2 increaseThese changes removed about 75% of selections.But im wondering if maybe i tightened up too much.
With this in mind i'm going to start tracking games for...
Ov. H1 Over 0.5 Goals % > = 75-79 just to see if the results match up with the current filter.
will not post these extra games, just want to get the data for them.1 game for early friday, Santos Laguna v Toluca 1.33
