1ST Strategy inspired by Super trader vid
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Had a few days off from this as needed a break, will be making some changes from tomorrow.
filters
Ov. H1 Over 0.5 Goals
Ov. Matches pla
Ov. Goal Attempts Per Matc
Ov. Corners Per Match H1Odds range
My results so far are much better with these odds,
will start from scratch with the overall stats.potentially 3 selections tomorrow.
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Hibs 1.36 win
Genclerbiligi 1.47 losePerth glory 1.44
Queenspark 1.30
Porto 1.32 -
@rene-ostenfeld Flashscore is good, its what i use for live stats. some people really like bet365, my filters for this strategy was created on here on the football stats section, still in the early testing phase at the moment.
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@jon-kinnear thx for sharing this. Where do you get your in game stats from ? I have seen some on flash score, and in betfair, but I am not sure what the best source would be ?
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Morton v Ayr 1.48 win
Todays selections
Hibs 1.36
Genclerbiligi 1.47 -
Just 1 for tonight,
Morton v Ayr 1.48
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Spezia v Verona 1.57 lose ( as expected at these odds )
Greuther Furth v Hannover 1.42 lose
shcaffhausen v thun 1.33 win
St Gallen v Grasshoppers Zurich 1.29 win
Ujpest v Debreceni VSC 1.40 win
Pumas UNAM v Puebla 1.36 winOverall profit/loss -£24.10
64 wins
26 losses
ROI -2.67
Strikerate 71.11%have 2 midweek games which will take the total games to 92 so far, on the road to 300.
at that point i will evolve the strategy based on the data. -
schaffhausen v thun 1.33
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Todays selections,
Spezia v Verona 1.57
Greuther Furth v Hannover 1.42
shcaffhausen v thun cant find game on betfair? postponed maybe
St Gallen v Grasshoppers Zurich 1.29
Ujpest v Debreceni VSC 1.40
Pumas UNAM v Puebla 1.36 -
@jon-kinnear in my experience sometimes tweaking an odds range can improve a strategies profit 400% it's mad
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@jon-kinnear interesting on the odds parameters there, I agree they can be hugely important!
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Man city 1.41 win
Ross county 1.5 lose
Rangers 1.29 win
Hearts 1.42 win
Korona kielce 1.44 lose
Sparta prague 1.23 win
Cercle brugge 1.40 win
Dundee utd 1.46 loseOverall profit/loss -£17.67
60 wins
24 losses
ROI -2.10%
Strikerate 71.42%I did a lot of testing yesterday, i noticed that 2 of the losers were 1.46 or higher so i went back through all the results.
results for games with odds 1.46 or higher(this includes results from a slightly looser filter)27 games
12 wins
15 losses
considering the average odds on these is around 1.53/1.54 these results have the potential for a lay strategy.as for the rest of the results it works out roughly 3.5 winners to every loser with average odds of above 1.33, Which is giving a clear edge.
Then there are SHG where the 1st half over0.5 price appears to have no effect, slightly better than 5 out of every 6 games is getting a a SHG.
will keep testing as it is but will be keeping an eye on it, will be 90 games in after todays selections which i will post a bit later.
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Todays selections
Man city 1.41
Ross county 1.5
Rangers 1.29
Hearts 1.42
Korona kielce 1.44
Sparta prague 1.23
Cercle brugge 1.40
Dundee utd 1.46 -
Arka Gdynia v Resovia Rzeszow 1.38 win
Adelaide United v Melbourne City 1.29 winOverall profit/loss -£4.80
55 wins
21 losses
ROI -0.63%
Strikerate 72.36% -
Friday is here finally, after a really slow week. only have 16 selections over the weekend.
have a rare weekend off work, so will put my focus on paper trading all of the selections using frodes over 2.5 goals strategy for 15mins + 30mins entry points,just to get a feel for it.2 for selections for today.
Arka Gdynia v Resovia Rzeszow 1.38
Adelaide United v Melbourne City 1.29 -
@jon-kinnear like this idea, maximising potential
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Have been analyzing the data for this set of filters so far, and think i can do a bit more with it.
During the first half when im able to trade im going to start tracking the odds for over 2.5 goals at 15min + 30mins, My results so far seem to indicate that frodes over 2.5 goals strategy may work with these selections, So im going to track this and find out.
Im also going to track the over0.5 and over1.5 1st half goal odds at 15mins + 30mins, As i have alot of games with 2 1st half goals after 15mins, and about 1 in 9 with 2 goals after 30 mins.
this basically means im testing 8 strategies from 1 set of filters, which i feel will increase the chances of me finding something that is profitable.
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Peterborough v Charlton 1.38 lose
Overall profit/loss -£11.36
53 wins
21 losses
ROI -1.53%
Strikerate 71.62%No selections now untill friday.
I have been monitoring a CS strategy based on these filters, so far
13 wins average odds 8.4
12 losses average odds 4.3
Strategy has lots of scratch trades.
need more games to know if its profitable as could just be a freak run of results, could easily swing the other way within a week. This is the one that im most excited for. -
@jon-kinnear said in 1ST Strategy inspired by Super trader vid:
@martin Yeah just shows not to get carried away based on a small sample of results, gonna keep grinding away with this until i have at least 300 games.
spot on!