1ST Strategy inspired by Super trader vid
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one selection for today
Peterborough v Charlton 1.38 -
@jon-kinnear interesting stuff this, shows the nature of variance quite well
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Melbourne V 1.36 lose
Lausanne 1.34 win
Luzern 1.32 lose
Aarau 1.34 lose
Vitesse 1.35 win
Lugano 1.39 win
RWDM vs Lierse 1.34 lose
Santos laguna error not part of current filters
Zeledon cant find result?Total profit/loss -£1.36
53 wins
20 losses
ROI -0.18%
Strikerate 72.60%Bit of a turnaround was -£33.87 after 51 games was then £28 ahead after 10/10 winners on saturday. Not sure which way this is going to go long term but getting some solid data for other strategies.
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great day for these yesterday10/10 really turned around, will update the stats tomorrow.
todays selections
Melbourne V 1.36 lose
Lausanne 1.34
Luzern 1.32
Aarau 1.34
Vitesse 1.35
Lugano 1.39
RWDM vs Lierse 1.34
Santos laguna no liquid yet
Zeledon no liquid yet -
Resovia Rzeszow v Gornik Leczna 1.51win
Pisa v Perugia 1.58 win
Mazatlan FC v Pumas UNAM 1.40 win
Western Sydney Wanderers v Macarthur FC didnt get the odds so will discard this one, it won thoughTodays selections
Holstein Kiel v Paderborn 1.35
Oxford Utd v Bristol Rovers 1.40
Hoffenheim v Dortmund 1.32
Shrewsbury v Wycombe 1.53
Kilmarnock v Motherwell 1.53
Hamilton v Queens Park 1.39
Morton v Cove Rangers 1.45
Zaglebie Sosnowiec v GKS Katowice 1.47
Sion v St Gallen 1.33
Westerlo v Union St Gilloise 1.41will update weekend results on monday
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Santos Laguna v Toluca 1.33 win
profit/loss -£30.64
ROI -5.89%
Strikerate 69.23%Todays selections
Resovia Rzeszow v Gornik Leczna 1.51
Pisa v Perugia 1.58
Early Sat selections
Mazatlan FC v Pumas UNAM 1.40
Western Sydney Wanderers v Macarthur FC no liquidity yet -
@jon-kinnear maybe create a copy and restrict slightly less and compare the two, see what works better
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Not long after creating this strategy, i ran into the issue of way too many selections.
My solution to narrow selections was to tighten the filters up.Ov. H1 Over 0.5 Goals % > = 80 5% increase
Ov. Matches played > = 10 no change
Ov. Goal Attempts Per Match H1 Ave > = 10 +2 increase
Ov. Corners Per Match H1 Ave > = 5 +2 increaseThese changes removed about 75% of selections.But im wondering if maybe i tightened up too much.
With this in mind i'm going to start tracking games for...
Ov. H1 Over 0.5 Goals % > = 75-79 just to see if the results match up with the current filter.
will not post these extra games, just want to get the data for them.1 game for early friday, Santos Laguna v Toluca 1.33
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results from yesterday and early hours of today
Naestved 1.36 lose
St gallen 1.33 win
Salernitana 1.47 lose
Lausanne 1.34 win
Club america 1.32 win
Pachuca 1.35 win
35 wins
16 losses
total profit/loss -£33.87
ROI -6.64%
Strikerate 68.62%So far after 51 results, this is looking like it will be a solid +5% ROI lay over 0.5 first half goals set and forget strategy. will be interesting to see if it continues in this way.Strike rate seems fairly consistant so far always around 65-70%
I have identified a strong second half Correct score strategy that would have made 20+ points over this run of 51 games will be tracking the odds on those.
No selections until friday now
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RKC Waalwijk v Fortuna Sittard 1.41 lose
Yellow-Red Mechelen v Genk 1.36 win
Macarthur FC v Newcastle Jets 1.33 win
Perth 1.35 win
Hvidovre 1.29 win
Trofense 1.49 win
Celtic 1.24 win
Ayr 1.45 win
Al jazira 1.32 lose
Adelaide 1.40 win31 wins
14 losses
profit/loss -£26.99
ROI -5.99%
Strikerate 68.88% -
Adelaide 1.40
Naestved 1.36
St gallen 1.33
Salernitana 1.47
Lausanne 1.34
Club america 1.32
Pachuca 1.35 -
tomorrows selections
Adelaide
Naestved
St gallen
Salernitana
Lausanne
Club america
Pachuca -
Todays selections
Perth 1.35
Hvidovre 1.29
Trofense 1.49
Celtic 1.24
Ayr 1.45
Al jazira 1.32
not much time today so will update the results tomorrow. -
RKC Waalwijk v Fortuna Sittard 1.41
Yellow-Red Mechelen v Genk 1.36
Early saturday
Macarthur FC v Newcastle Jets1.33will be another 6 selections for saturday, which will take the total games to 44
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@jon-kinnear well done mate, sound discipline there!
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Progress update,
Its been a boring week, not much to do,
1 positive from this week is ive been coming on the forum each night, and looking at members posted selections and ignoring all of them because its not part of my plan. in the past i would have just blindly followed at times, its just not a good idea to follow other members selections, if you havent put in the work yourself.
For this strategy its early days, not enough data yet to really put money on selections.
The over 0.5 1st half backs currently looks profitable as a lay strategy, which makes sense as the odds are pushed down due to everyone expecting goals.been tracking the haltime/fulltime scores, from the selections.
Have identified another potential stategy for the 2nd half, need to get more results before i commit to paper trading those.Tommorows selections
RKC Waalwijk v Fortuna Sittard
Yellow-Red Mechelen v Genk
Early saturday
Macarthur FC v Newcastle Jets -
Todays results
Bradford v Tranmere 1.54 win
Al Ahli (UAE) v Al Dhafra 1.25 wintotal profit/loss -£35.49
ROI -10.14%
Strikerate 68.57%Nothing till friday now, so will take a break.
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@terry-heller Thanks i'm just focusing on the set and forget side of it for now, i,m tracking all of the goal times for the 1st half so will implement an in-play entry point based off the info when i have 300+ results.