Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@craig-vaulks The set and forget strats could do with a FHG one, I find the market profitable and it seems to have a high S/R and good ROI with placing a bet before KO. Splitting a stake would be easy enough to write a bot for too.
I only have 175 selections on mine so far starting from the last week in March so not enough data to be sure or share yet. The stats software can't get the FHG BF prices so I have to check on BF and only bet if the odds are better than the probability.
43% are over 1.5
34% have a goal before 15 minutes
Overall S/R at the moment is 81% and ROI 8.92% -
I have been testing it for 2 months now. I have it set for FT odds at 0-0 to 11 and under which gives FHG odds around 1.5 so that's around the minimum I don't have a max as 1.5 to 1.6 is usually around the top end for that market.
I also prefer to split stake 50% before kick off and then set odds at 2.0 or 2.1 to keep inplay (around 50 ticks above starting price). I have found that way more profitable so far.
Just placing a single bet beforehand is also a option. -
@craig-vaulks nice one, thanks for sharing, when did you start testing?
what odds do you go for and when do you enter?
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Here is my FHG strat. Would be interested in you testing it or anyone else. Almost 200 selections in, doing well so far.
0_1683196698869_filter-settings (3).txt -
So as you have probably noticed I'm no longer testing the older strategies. After a year of testing strategies, we have the results and know how they perform, I'm now testing some new ones! This is also a good opportunity for the community - if you have a strategy you would like to add or me to have a look at testing just upload them here.
Here is how to do so:
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@dave-tancock the upgrade you should get an email about, our admin lady has had a few days off because of a family emergency, she should be working again now.
Has this been sorted for you?
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@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Evening everyone. I was wondering if anyone has been tracking stats for Tomasz’s 1.5 Goals? Particularly second half goal stats.
I’ve been tracking these since December and the selections are striking at 70% for a SHG between 60 mins and full time.
I’ve not looked the next goal odds at this time but i highly suspect they’ll average over 1.43 which would be the break even strike rate.
This filter provides a nice consistent amount of selections so could be a decent 60 min to full time SHG strategy in it.
very interesting and something I will track going forward. Are there over 1.5 goals in this 70% or just one shg and therefore the original Tom u1.5 lay was unsuccessful? The only reason I ask is by half time the lay odds are more then likely to have halved and that’s a decent angle to look at. Can i take a look at the results?
70% chance of a a goal between the 60th minute and full time. That’s all I’ve honed in on at the moment. Good point about the HT odds though
My stats have 81% chance of SHG.
I am on this now, and copied the selections from the master sheet linked in the original post in to my spread sheet and I’m back filling the goal data/times as i do on my other spreadsheets. When I’ve done it I’ll share a copy. Feb 2022 done and some Apr. I’ll do more tomorrow.
I should say, there were just a few selections on the master sheet that took odds higher than 3.5 which i have excluded as i strictly trade at 3.5 or below on the strategy and that’s what I’ve tracked myself and what i wanted to back test for continuity.
The Kolubara match today was 1.67 on the next goal at 60 mins
That’s great value although the point of the strategy is to fine games that where o1.5 is less likely and that why you get good odds but yeah there could be an angle where you lay u1.5 goals at HT and then next goal at 60 and trade put of both when a goal is scored?
That’s true, so my thinking was that it should mean on average we’ll get higher O0.5G odds so when I noticed there was a 70% SR on a goal from 60 mins i wanted to get the past data. There could be something in laying U1.5G HT. in general i think SHG odds could be good value.
Only a tiny sample but here are the last 3 days SHG (Next goal) at 60-65 mins.
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@fraser-cord Certainly. Soon as I’ve done it i’ll make the link available in a post to anyone who wants it. Trying to do a chunk of results every few days.
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@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Evening everyone. I was wondering if anyone has been tracking stats for Tomasz’s 1.5 Goals? Particularly second half goal stats.
I’ve been tracking these since December and the selections are striking at 70% for a SHG between 60 mins and full time.
I’ve not looked the next goal odds at this time but i highly suspect they’ll average over 1.43 which would be the break even strike rate.
This filter provides a nice consistent amount of selections so could be a decent 60 min to full time SHG strategy in it.
very interesting and something I will track going forward. Are there over 1.5 goals in this 70% or just one shg and therefore the original Tom u1.5 lay was unsuccessful? The only reason I ask is by half time the lay odds are more then likely to have halved and that’s a decent angle to look at. Can i take a look at the results?
70% chance of a a goal between the 60th minute and full time. That’s all I’ve honed in on at the moment. Good point about the HT odds though
My stats have 81% chance of SHG.
I am on this now, and copied the selections from the master sheet linked in the original post in to my spread sheet and I’m back filling the goal data/times as i do on my other spreadsheets. When I’ve done it I’ll share a copy. Feb 2022 done and some Apr. I’ll do more tomorrow.
I should say, there were just a few selections on the master sheet that took odds higher than 3.5 which i have excluded as i strictly trade at 3.5 or below on the strategy and that’s what I’ve tracked myself and what i wanted to back test for continuity.
The Kolubara match today was 1.67 on the next goal at 60 mins
That’s great value although the point of the strategy is to fine games that where o1.5 is less likely and that why you get good odds but yeah there could be an angle where you lay u1.5 goals at HT and then next goal at 60 and trade put of both when a goal is scored?
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@john861 said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@stuart-wallace-0 that strategy has taken an absolute battering in April, might not want to post results just yet maybe?
Ah, has it?
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@martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@stuart-wallace-0 said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Has the Testing Sheet been updated recently? When i look at Tom 1.5 the last entry was in mid April.
don't trade end of season do I so won't update until summer leagues start cropping up more
I dont understand.
- I would have thought that a lot of members would have wanted to see how the strategy is doing.
- The Strategy was kept updated through the whole of Apr/May/Jun in 2022.
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@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Evening everyone. I was wondering if anyone has been tracking stats for Tomasz’s 1.5 Goals? Particularly second half goal stats.
I’ve been tracking these since December and the selections are striking at 70% for a SHG between 60 mins and full time.
I’ve not looked the next goal odds at this time but i highly suspect they’ll average over 1.43 which would be the break even strike rate.
This filter provides a nice consistent amount of selections so could be a decent 60 min to full time SHG strategy in it.
very interesting and something I will track going forward. Are there over 1.5 goals in this 70% or just one shg and therefore the original Tom u1.5 lay was unsuccessful? The only reason I ask is by half time the lay odds are more then likely to have halved and that’s a decent angle to look at. Can i take a look at the results?
70% chance of a a goal between the 60th minute and full time. That’s all I’ve honed in on at the moment. Good point about the HT odds though
My stats have 81% chance of SHG.
I am on this now, and copied the selections from the master sheet linked in the original post in to my spread sheet and I’m back filling the goal data/times as i do on my other spreadsheets. When I’ve done it I’ll share a copy. Feb 2022 done and some Apr. I’ll do more tomorrow.
I should say, there were just a few selections on the master sheet that took odds higher than 3.5 which i have excluded as i strictly trade at 3.5 or below on the strategy and that’s what I’ve tracked myself and what i wanted to back test for continuity.
The Kolubara match today was 1.67 on the next goal at 60 mins
Would be happy to see a copy of the spreadsheet once complete if your willing to share @Chris-King .
Brazil Serie B had some extreamly tasty odds last season, will be keeping an eye once the season gets going, still a few weeks away though.
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:thumbs_up:
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@david-baker-0 I’m only testing with minor stakes right now so yes I am technically trading them even if it’s towards the end of the season but tread carefully as although this has been tested for 4 months we haven’t got to 100 trades yet so still in its infancy
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@john861 It’s the U3.5 backs strategy linked in this chat but I’ve changed the home and away filters so that they each need 85% plus of previous games of U3.5. The original version has them set at 80%.
Only tested since start of the year but promising so far
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@andy-donnelly said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Update on the U3.5 using 85% thresholds in the home/away filters.
Was a surprisingly good month in April when considering goal rates usually rise at this time of year.
April
32 trades
27 winners
84% SR
P/L + £43.30 (to £10 stakes)Overall 2023
97 trades
78 winners
80% SR
P/L +£74.21 (to £10 stakes)Nice results Andy.Are you trading every game that the filter suggests regardless or are you not trading the leagues coming to the end of the season?
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@andy-donnelly is this strategy been posted before? Sorry I might have missed it, have you got any forward testing numbers?
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@stuart-wallace-0 said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Has the Testing Sheet been updated recently? When i look at Tom 1.5 the last entry was in mid April.
don't trade end of season do I so won't update until summer leagues start cropping up more