Set & Forget Football Strategies
-
I'm currently still testing the original first half goal filter that used to be in the profitable members filters and I'm now up to 175 results this is going back to Nov 22 and I'm also going to include the strike rates of the different leagues.
Now at the moment what I'm going to be looking at doing going forward is keeping the original filter but also adding filters for all leagues and all odds to see if there might be some form of correlation. The way that I've been paper trading these results has been entering the market at 15 and 30 minutes where the odds are roughly around 1.6 and around about 2.2 on average, but moving forward if the tests show a lot of early goals going in I might move the split stakes from 2 to 4, but I want more results and to see if there may be some leagues that are particularly successful that I'm not focusing on. If anyone wants the original filter I'm more than happy to share it.
-
@chris-king definately a good angle, probably needs more testing, im now noting goal times in my results
-
@terry-heller No worries.The odds on the software are for full time o1.5 and 2.5.I only put them in because you can’t get the half time odds and I thought this might give me some of indicator of the half time odds if I didn’t get chance to look them up or something to filter out going forward
-
This post is deleted!
-
@david-baker-0 Thanks for sharing. I just ran your filter and it shows 2 games today.
Udinese....Stats software has odds of 1.18 for O.5 goals at HT the betfair price is 1.4
Ath Bilbao stats software has odds of 1.54 and the BF price is 1.44 -
Just to add another 1st half goal one here is mine.I should say very very early days but it did go on a rather pleasing 31 match winning run and after 67 games has an 85% strike rate.so as I say very very early days
0_1683215757883_filter-settings.txt.json -
This post is deleted!
-
Good stuff, my filter usually gives out plenty of selections so I'm sure there will plenty at the weekend.
-
@craig-vaulks I have imported your strat to compare selections with mine. It's a shame there aren't any today as I have added a probability test that will not filter out any but will give an indication of what might be a value price.
-
Yeah seems like a good market for set and forget so far. I have had 196 selections with 148 coming in. I have split staked the last 100 which has given a pretty good return. Looking like I need a 62% strike rate but hitting around 76%. Still early days but looks like it has good potential. Especially if people can refine it even more, etc.
-
@craig-vaulks The set and forget strats could do with a FHG one, I find the market profitable and it seems to have a high S/R and good ROI with placing a bet before KO. Splitting a stake would be easy enough to write a bot for too.
I only have 175 selections on mine so far starting from the last week in March so not enough data to be sure or share yet. The stats software can't get the FHG BF prices so I have to check on BF and only bet if the odds are better than the probability.
43% are over 1.5
34% have a goal before 15 minutes
Overall S/R at the moment is 81% and ROI 8.92% -
I have been testing it for 2 months now. I have it set for FT odds at 0-0 to 11 and under which gives FHG odds around 1.5 so that's around the minimum I don't have a max as 1.5 to 1.6 is usually around the top end for that market.
I also prefer to split stake 50% before kick off and then set odds at 2.0 or 2.1 to keep inplay (around 50 ticks above starting price). I have found that way more profitable so far.
Just placing a single bet beforehand is also a option. -
@craig-vaulks nice one, thanks for sharing, when did you start testing?
what odds do you go for and when do you enter?
-
Here is my FHG strat. Would be interested in you testing it or anyone else. Almost 200 selections in, doing well so far.
0_1683196698869_filter-settings (3).txt -
So as you have probably noticed I'm no longer testing the older strategies. After a year of testing strategies, we have the results and know how they perform, I'm now testing some new ones! This is also a good opportunity for the community - if you have a strategy you would like to add or me to have a look at testing just upload them here.
Here is how to do so:
-
@dave-tancock the upgrade you should get an email about, our admin lady has had a few days off because of a family emergency, she should be working again now.
Has this been sorted for you?
-
@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Evening everyone. I was wondering if anyone has been tracking stats for Tomasz’s 1.5 Goals? Particularly second half goal stats.
I’ve been tracking these since December and the selections are striking at 70% for a SHG between 60 mins and full time.
I’ve not looked the next goal odds at this time but i highly suspect they’ll average over 1.43 which would be the break even strike rate.
This filter provides a nice consistent amount of selections so could be a decent 60 min to full time SHG strategy in it.
very interesting and something I will track going forward. Are there over 1.5 goals in this 70% or just one shg and therefore the original Tom u1.5 lay was unsuccessful? The only reason I ask is by half time the lay odds are more then likely to have halved and that’s a decent angle to look at. Can i take a look at the results?
70% chance of a a goal between the 60th minute and full time. That’s all I’ve honed in on at the moment. Good point about the HT odds though
My stats have 81% chance of SHG.
I am on this now, and copied the selections from the master sheet linked in the original post in to my spread sheet and I’m back filling the goal data/times as i do on my other spreadsheets. When I’ve done it I’ll share a copy. Feb 2022 done and some Apr. I’ll do more tomorrow.
I should say, there were just a few selections on the master sheet that took odds higher than 3.5 which i have excluded as i strictly trade at 3.5 or below on the strategy and that’s what I’ve tracked myself and what i wanted to back test for continuity.
The Kolubara match today was 1.67 on the next goal at 60 mins
That’s great value although the point of the strategy is to fine games that where o1.5 is less likely and that why you get good odds but yeah there could be an angle where you lay u1.5 goals at HT and then next goal at 60 and trade put of both when a goal is scored?
That’s true, so my thinking was that it should mean on average we’ll get higher O0.5G odds so when I noticed there was a 70% SR on a goal from 60 mins i wanted to get the past data. There could be something in laying U1.5G HT. in general i think SHG odds could be good value.
Only a tiny sample but here are the last 3 days SHG (Next goal) at 60-65 mins.
-
@fraser-cord Certainly. Soon as I’ve done it i’ll make the link available in a post to anyone who wants it. Trying to do a chunk of results every few days.
-
@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@chris-king said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Evening everyone. I was wondering if anyone has been tracking stats for Tomasz’s 1.5 Goals? Particularly second half goal stats.
I’ve been tracking these since December and the selections are striking at 70% for a SHG between 60 mins and full time.
I’ve not looked the next goal odds at this time but i highly suspect they’ll average over 1.43 which would be the break even strike rate.
This filter provides a nice consistent amount of selections so could be a decent 60 min to full time SHG strategy in it.
very interesting and something I will track going forward. Are there over 1.5 goals in this 70% or just one shg and therefore the original Tom u1.5 lay was unsuccessful? The only reason I ask is by half time the lay odds are more then likely to have halved and that’s a decent angle to look at. Can i take a look at the results?
70% chance of a a goal between the 60th minute and full time. That’s all I’ve honed in on at the moment. Good point about the HT odds though
My stats have 81% chance of SHG.
I am on this now, and copied the selections from the master sheet linked in the original post in to my spread sheet and I’m back filling the goal data/times as i do on my other spreadsheets. When I’ve done it I’ll share a copy. Feb 2022 done and some Apr. I’ll do more tomorrow.
I should say, there were just a few selections on the master sheet that took odds higher than 3.5 which i have excluded as i strictly trade at 3.5 or below on the strategy and that’s what I’ve tracked myself and what i wanted to back test for continuity.
The Kolubara match today was 1.67 on the next goal at 60 mins
That’s great value although the point of the strategy is to fine games that where o1.5 is less likely and that why you get good odds but yeah there could be an angle where you lay u1.5 goals at HT and then next goal at 60 and trade put of both when a goal is scored?
-
@john861 said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@stuart-wallace-0 that strategy has taken an absolute battering in April, might not want to post results just yet maybe?
Ah, has it?
